IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Comparative statics for real options on oil: What stylized facts to use?

  • Lund, Diderik

    ()

    (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)

  • Nymoen, Ragnar

    ()

    (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)

Comparative-statics results for financial options are often assumed to hold for real options. But the effects of higher volatility need not be increased value and postponed investment. This depends on signs of correlations and what parameters are held constant. For real options, the rate-of-return shortfall may change. The CAPM is commonly used to determine this. In contrast with widespread assumptions, the empirical analysis shows that the correlation of the returns on oil and the stock market is nonpositive and not invariant to changes in volatility. For crude oil during 1993–2008, these changes are identified as three significant breaks.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://www.sv.uio.no/econ/english/research/unpublished-works/working-papers/pdf-files/2013/memo-14-2013.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Oslo University, Department of Economics in its series Memorandum with number 14/2013.

as
in new window

Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 27 May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2013_014
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway

Phone: 22 85 51 27
Fax: 22 85 50 35
Web page: http://www.oekonomi.uio.no/indexe.html
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Hart, Rob & Spiro, Daniel, 2011. "The elephant in Hotelling's room," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7834-7838.
  2. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 1997. "Hotelling Confronts CAPM: A Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 685-708, August.
  3. Zhi Da & Re-Jin Guo & Ravi Jagannathan, 2009. "CAPM for Estimating the Cost of Equity Capital: Interpreting the Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 14889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Lund, Diderik, 2005. "How to analyze the investment-uncertainty relationship in real option models?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 311-322.
  5. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
  6. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, 09.
  7. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
  8. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-73, July.
  9. Bradley T. Ewing & Farooq Malik, 2010. "Estimating Volatility Persistence in Oil Prices Under Structural Breaks," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1011-1023, November.
  10. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010. "What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
  11. Hui Guo & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2005. "Oil price volatility and U.S. macroeconomic activity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 669-84.
  12. Guthrie, Graeme, 2009. "Real Options in Theory and Practice," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195380637, December.
  13. J. Isaac Miller & Ronald Ratti, 2008. "Crude Oil and Stock Markets: Stability, Instability, and Bubbles," Working Papers 0810, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 20 Jan 2009.
  14. Jin-Chuan Duan, 1995. "The Garch Option Pricing Model," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 13-32.
  15. Giulio Cifarelli & Giovanna Paladino, 2008. "Oil price Dynamics and Speculation. A Multivariate Financial Approach," Working Papers - Economics wp2008_15.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
  16. Kilian, Lutz & Park, Cheolbeom, 2007. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the U.S. Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2000. "On the investment-uncertainty relationship in a real options model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-225, February.
  18. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1984. " Option Pricing When the Underlying Asset Earns a Below-Equilibrium Rate of Return: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 261-65, March.
  19. Berg, Tobias & Mölls, Sascha H. & Willershausen, Timo, 2009. "(Real-)options, uncertainty and comparative statics: Are Black and Scholes mistaken?," Manuskripte aus den Instituten für Betriebswirtschaftslehre der Universität Kiel 645, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre.
  20. Gutierrez, Oscar, 2007. "Devaluating projects and the investment-uncertainty relationship," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3881-3888, December.
  21. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2012. "Commodity volatility breaks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 395-422.
  22. Gustavo Grullon & Evgeny Lyandres & Alexei Zhdanov, 2012. "Real Options, Volatility, and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1499-1537, 08.
  23. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2013_014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Magnus Gabriel Aase)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.