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(Real-)options, uncertainty and comparative statics: Are Black and Scholes mistaken?

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  • Berg, Tobias
  • Mölls, Sascha H.
  • Willershausen, Timo

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of uncertainty on the value of real options while allowing for a possible change in the value of the underlying asset. We show that the proposition of a strictly positive influence of uncertainty does not hold, if the value of the underlying asset changes due to a Variation of the Standard deviation. Only if the underlying risk is unsystematic or the binding relation between risk and return is neglected, the strictly positive effect of uncertainty can be retained. In all other cases, the influence becomes ambiguous. In addition, we discuss the consequences of our results on a more economic level to convey an understanding of when the procedure dealt with would be indicated.

Suggested Citation

  • Berg, Tobias & Mölls, Sascha H. & Willershausen, Timo, 2009. "(Real-)options, uncertainty and comparative statics: Are Black and Scholes mistaken?," Manuskripte aus den Instituten für Betriebswirtschaftslehre der Universität Kiel 645, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauman:645
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    1. Lund, Diderik & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2013. "Comparative statics for real options on oil: What stylized facts to use?," Memorandum 14/2013, Oslo University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real Options; Uncertainty; Investment/Uncertainty-Relationship; Risk; Underlying;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D

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