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An Option Valuation Analysis of Investment Choices by a Regulated Firm

Author

Listed:
  • Elizabeth Olmsted Teisberg

    (Harvard University, Graduate School of Business Administration, Soldiers Field Road, Boston, Massachusetts 02163)

Abstract

This paper analyzes a utility power plant construction project using an option pricing model of the value of the capital investment. It includes descriptive factors frequently ignored in the valuation of capital investments by regulated firms, including lead time, lumpy and sequential cost outlays, irreversibility of expenditures, and uncertainty about regulatory outcomes for completed projects. The analysis shows the value of shorter lead time technologies, the value of flexibility to delay or abandon construction, the incentive to delay construction under uncertain regulation, and how cost recovery policies, such as possible disallowance of Allow for Funds Used During Construction (AFUDC), create incentives to invest less, but to complete construction quickly. The analysis may also apply in unregulated contexts, where the value of a completed project is affected by taxation, the possibility of nationalization, or possible competitors' actions that create uncertain restrictions on potential profits.

Suggested Citation

  • Elizabeth Olmsted Teisberg, 1994. "An Option Valuation Analysis of Investment Choices by a Regulated Firm," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(4), pages 535-548, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:40:y:1994:i:4:p:535-548
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.40.4.535
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
    2. Arnd Huchzermeier & Christoph H. Loch, 2001. "Project Management Under Risk: Using the Real Options Approach to Evaluate Flexibility in R...D," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(1), pages 85-101, January.
    3. Murillas Maza, Arantza, 2000. "Uncertainty and Real Options. Investment and Development of Fishing Resources (II)," BILTOKI 2000-02, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística).
    4. Davis, Graham A., 1998. "Estimating Volatility and Dividend Yield When Valuing Real Options to Invest or Abandon," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 725-754.
    5. Guthrie, Graeme, 2006. "Regulating Infrastructure: The Impact on Risk and Investment," Working Paper Series 3851, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    6. Fernando T. Camacho & Flavio M. Menezes, 2008. "Price Regulation and Investment: A Real Options Approach," Discussion Papers Series 373, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    7. Pasquale Scandizzo & Odin Knudsen, 2012. "Risk management and regulation compliance with tradable permits under dynamic uncertainty," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 127-157, February.
    8. Martzoukos, Spiros H. & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2002. "Real (investment) options with multiple sources of rare events," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 696-706, February.
    9. Pereira, Paulo J. & Rodrigues, Artur, 2014. "Investment decisions in finite-lived monopolies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 219-236.
    10. Douglas T. Gardner & J. Scott Rogers, 1999. "Planning Electric Power Systems Under Demand Uncertainty with Different Technology Lead Times," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(10), pages 1289-1306, October.
    11. Graeme Guthrie, 2006. "Regulating Infrastructure: The Impact on Risk and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 925-972, December.
    12. Choi, Hyun-Woo & Kim, In Joon & Kim, Tong Suk, 2002. "Contingent claims valuation of optional calling plan contracts in telephone industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 433-448.
    13. Berg, Tobias & Mölls, Sascha H. & Willershausen, Timo, 2009. "(Real-)options, uncertainty and comparative statics: Are Black and Scholes mistaken?," Manuskripte aus den Instituten für Betriebswirtschaftslehre der Universität Kiel 645, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre.
    14. Fernando Camacho & Flavio Menezes, 2009. "Access pricing and investment: a real options approach," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 107-126, October.
    15. Paul D. Childs & Alexander J. Triantis, 1999. "Dynamic R&D Investment Policies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(10), pages 1359-1377, October.

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