IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332623.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Risky Business: Political Instability and Sectoral Greenfield Foreign Direct Investment in the Arab World

Author

Listed:
  • Burger, Martijn
  • Ianchovichina, Elena
  • Rijkers, Bob

Abstract

How does political instability affect the level and composition of foreign direct investment (FDI)? The answer to this question has important implications for countries’ development trajectories since not all types of FDI are considered equally conducive to economic growth. Alfaro (2003) demonstrates that the growth spillovers associated with FDI vary across sectors, being positive in manufacturing, ambiguous in the services sector and negative in the primary sector. Her findings help explain why many countries have been especially eager to attract FDI in manufacturing and services (Harding and Javorcik, 2011) and why investments in natural resources are considered a mixed blessing, and even a curse (Sachs and Warner, 2001). Existing studies of the effect of political instability on investment have focused mostly on aggregate relationships. They typically document a strong negative relationship between political instability and aggregate investment (Alesina and Perotti, 1996), foreign direct investment (Busse and Hefeker, 2007; Daude and Stein, 2007), and growth (Barro, 1991; Alesina et al., 1996). However, some authors find no significant or even positive effects and argue that political unrest and institutional quality are not important determinants of investment flows (Noorbakhsh et al., 2001; Campos and Nugent, 2003; Blonigen and Piger, 2014). In specific instances, some foreign companies find it especially advantageous to invest during periods of instability (Guidolin and La Ferrara, 2007). One possible explanation for the divergent results is that the effect of political instability on FDI varies across sectors. To start with, resource-seeking multinationals may have limited opportunities for investment due to the geographically constrained availability of resources. Second, investments may differ in the degree to which they are reversible and in the extent to which their profitability hinges on first-mover advantages. Third, the cost of finance l...

Suggested Citation

  • Burger, Martijn & Ianchovichina, Elena & Rijkers, Bob, 2015. "Risky Business: Political Instability and Sectoral Greenfield Foreign Direct Investment in the Arab World," Conference papers 332623, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332623
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332623/files/7417.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balasubramanyam, V N & Salisu, M & Sapsford, David, 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 92-105, January.
    2. Jiménez, Alfredo & Luis-Rico, Isabel & Benito-Osorio, Diana, 2014. "The influence of political risk on the scope of internationalization of regulated companies: Insights from a Spanish sample," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 301-311.
    3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    4. Massimo Guidolin & Eliana La Ferrara, 2007. "Diamonds Are Forever, Wars Are Not: Is Conflict Bad for Private Firms?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1978-1993, December.
    5. Svensson, Jakob, 1998. "Investment, property rights and political instability: Theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(7), pages 1317-1341, July.
    6. Torfinn Harding & Beata S. Javorcik, 2011. "Roll Out the Red Carpet and They Will Come: Investment Promotion and FDI Inflows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(557), pages 1445-1476, December.
    7. Alfaro, Laura & Chanda, Areendam & Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sayek, Selin, 2004. "FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 89-112, October.
    8. Zsolt Darvas, 2012. "Real effective exchange rates for 178 countries: A new database," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1210, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    9. Shang-Jin Wei, 2000. "How Taxing is Corruption on International Investors?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 1-11, February.
    10. Bruno, Giovanni S.F., 2005. "Approximating the bias of the LSDV estimator for dynamic unbalanced panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 361-366, June.
    11. Martijn J. Burger & Bert van der Knaap & Ronald S. Wall, 2013. "Revealed competition for greenfield investments between European regions," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(4), pages 619-648, July.
    12. Bun, Maurice J. G. & Kiviet, Jan F., 2003. "On the diminishing returns of higher-order terms in asymptotic expansions of bias," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 145-152, May.
    13. Alesina, Alberto & Tabellini, Guido, 1989. "External debt, capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3-4), pages 199-220, November.
    14. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 2009. "Testing the neocon agenda: Democracy in resource-rich societies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 293-308, April.
    15. Pierre‐Guillaume Méon & Khalid Sekkat, 2004. "Does the Quality of Institutions Limit the MENA's Integration in the World Economy?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(9), pages 1475-1498, September.
    16. Noorbakhsh, Farhad & Paloni, Alberto & Youssef, Ali, 2001. "Human Capital and FDI Inflows to Developing Countries: New Empirical Evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1593-1610, September.
    17. Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andes, 1992. "The Tragedy of the Commons and Economic Growth: Why Does Capital Flow from Poor to Rich Countries?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1208-1231, December.
    18. James R. Markusen, 1995. "The Boundaries of Multinational Enterprises and the Theory of International Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 169-189, Spring.
    19. Christian Daude & Ernesto Stein, 2007. "The Quality Of Institutions And Foreign Direct Investment," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 317-344, November.
    20. Han, Chirok & Phillips, Peter C. B., 2010. "Gmm Estimation For Dynamic Panels With Fixed Effects And Strong Instruments At Unity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 119-151, February.
    21. Mason, Robin & Weeds, Helen, 2010. "Investment, uncertainty and pre-emption," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 278-287, May.
    22. Edwards, Sebastian & Tabellini, Guido, 1991. "Explaining fiscal policies and inflation in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1, Supple), pages 16-48, March.
    23. Esteban García‐Canal & Mauro F. Guillén, 2008. "Risk and the strategy of foreign location choice in regulated industries," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(10), pages 1097-1115, October.
    24. Busse, Matthias & Hefeker, Carsten, 2007. "Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 397-415, June.
    25. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    26. Lund, Diderik, 2005. "How to analyze the investment-uncertainty relationship in real option models?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 311-322.
    27. Driffield, Nigel & Jones, Chris & Crotty, Jo, 2013. "International business research and risky investments, an analysis of FDI in conflict zones," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 140-155.
    28. Campos, Nauro & Nugent, Jeffrey B, 2000. "Investment and Instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 2609, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Schneider, Friedrich & Frey, Bruno S., 1985. "Economic and political determinants of foreign direct investment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 161-175, February.
    30. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rohner, Dominic, 2012. "War and natural resource exploitation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1714-1729.
    31. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
    32. Matthias Busse, 2004. "Transnational Corporations and Repression of Political Rights and Civil Liberties: An Empirical Analysis," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 45-65, February.
    33. Jean Tirole, 1988. "The Theory of Industrial Organization," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262200716, December.
    34. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    35. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2008. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 347-368, May.
    36. Metcalf, Gilbert E. & Hassett, Kevin A., 1995. "Investment under alternative return assumptions Comparing random walks and mean reversion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1471-1488, November.
    37. Li Dai & Lorraine Eden & Paul W Beamish, 2013. "Place, space, and geographical exposure: Foreign subsidiary survival in conflict zones," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 44(6), pages 554-578, August.
    38. Nauro F. Campos & Jeffrey B. Nugent, 2003. "Aggregate Investment and Political Instability: An Econometric Investigation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 70(279), pages 533-549, August.
    39. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2000. "On the investment-uncertainty relationship in a real options model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-225, February.
    40. Alvaro Cuervo-Cazurra, 2006. "Who cares about corruption?," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 37(6), pages 807-822, November.
    41. Vivek Ghosal & Prakash Loungani, 2000. "The Differential Impact of Uncertainty on Investment in Small and Large Businesses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 338-343, May.
    42. Mina, Wasseem Michel, 2012. "The Institutional Reforms Debate and FDI Flows to the MENA Region: The “Best” Ensemble," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1798-1809.
    43. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
    44. Wheeler, David & Mody, Ashoka, 1992. "International investment location decisions : The case of U.S. firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 57-76, August.
    45. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-233, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bougharriou, Nouha & Benayed, Walid & Gabsi, Foued Badr, 2019. "The democracy and economic growth nexus: Do FDI and government spending matter? Evidence from the Arab world," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-29.
    2. Nouf Alsharif & Sambit Bhattacharyya & Maurizio Intartaglia, 2016. "Economic Diversification in Resource Rich Countries: Uncovering the State of Knowledge," Working Paper Series 09816, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    3. Elena Ianchovichina & Maros Ivanic, 2016. "Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1584-1627, October.
    4. Dimitrova, Anna & Triki, Dora & Valentino, Alfredo, 2022. "The effects of business- and non-business-targeting terrorism on FDI to the MENA region: The moderating role of political regime," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(6).
    5. Benjamin Fomba Kamga & Dieu Ne Dort Talla Fokam & Paul Ningaye, 2022. "Political instability and youths unemployment in sub‐Saharan Africa," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 1850-1879, August.
    6. Mukeshimana, Marie Claire & Zhao, Zhen-Yu & Nshimiyimana, Jean Pierre, 2021. "Evaluating strategies for renewable energy development in Rwanda: An integrated SWOT – ISM analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 402-414.
    7. Federico Carril-Caccia & Juliette Milgram Baleix & Jordi Paniagua, 2019. "The foreign direct investment-institution nexus in oil-abundant countries," Working Papers 1903, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    8. Caroline T Witte & Martijn J Burger & Elena I Ianchovichina & Enrico Pennings, 2017. "Dodging bullets: The heterogeneous effect of political violence on greenfield FDI," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 48(7), pages 862-892, September.
    9. Nouf Alsharif & Sambit Bhattacharyya & Maurizio Intartaglia, 2016. "Economic Diversification in Resource Rich Countries: Uncovering the State of Knowledge," Working Paper Series 9816, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
    10. Federico Carril-Caccia & Juliette Milgram Baleix & Jordi Paniagua, 2019. "Does Terrorism Affect Foreign Direct Investment?," Working Papers 1913, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    11. Federico Carril-Caccia & Juliette Milgram Baleix & Jordi Paniagua, 2022. "Does terrorism affect greenfield investment? A structural gravity approach," ThE Papers 22/06, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    12. Martijn J. Burger & Elena I. Ianchovichina, 2017. "Surges and stops in greenfield and M&A FDI flows to developing countries: analysis by mode of entry," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(2), pages 411-432, May.
    13. Siham MATALLAH & Lahouari BENLAHCENE, 2021. "Public service delivery dilemma and economic growth challenges in the MENA Region," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(629), W), pages 31-50, Winter.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Burger, Martijn & Ianchovichina, Elena & Rijkers, Bob, 2013. "Risky business : political instability and greenfield foreign direct investment in the Arab world," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6716, The World Bank.
    2. Akhtaruzzaman, M. & Berg, Nathan & Hajzler, Christopher, 2017. "Expropriation risk and FDI in developing countries: Does return of capital dominate return on capital?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 84-107.
    3. Caroline T Witte & Martijn J Burger & Elena I Ianchovichina & Enrico Pennings, 2017. "Dodging bullets: The heterogeneous effect of political violence on greenfield FDI," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 48(7), pages 862-892, September.
    4. Bailey, Nicholas, 2018. "Exploring the relationship between institutional factors and FDI attractiveness: A meta-analytic review," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 139-148.
    5. Dalila Nicet-Chenaf & Eric Rougier & Kamel Abdellah, 2012. "FDI and macroeconomic volatility: a close-up on the source countries," Post-Print hal-00798467, HAL.
    6. Fathi Ali & Norbert Fiess & Ronald MacDonald, 2010. "Do Institutions Matter for Foreign Direct Investment?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 201-219, April.
    7. Caroline Witte & Martijn Burger & Elena Ianchovichina & Enrico Pennings, 2014. "Political Violence and Greenfield Foreign Direct Investment in Natural Resources," Working Papers 2014/23, Maastricht School of Management.
    8. Witte, Caroline T. & Burger, Martijn J. & Pennings, Enrico, 2020. "When political instability devaluates home-host ties," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(4).
    9. Federico Carril-Caccia & Juliette Milgram-Baleix & Jordi Paniagua, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment in oil-abundant countries: The role of institutions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, April.
    10. Bersan Haliti & Safet Merovci, 2020. "The Impact of the Investment Environment on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the European Transition Economies," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 1, pages 138-147, March.
    11. Aleksynska, Mariya & Havrylchyk, Olena, 2013. "FDI from the south: The role of institutional distance and natural resources," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 38-53.
    12. Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Khalid Sekkat, 2007. "Revisiting the relationship between governance and foreign direct investment," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 50(1), pages 41-61.
    13. Andreia Olival, 2012. "The influence of Doing Business’ institutional variables in Foreign Direct Investment," GEE Papers 0048, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Dec 2012.
    14. Federico Carril‐Caccia & Elena Pavlova, 2020. "Mergers and acquisitions & trade: A global value chain analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 586-614, March.
    15. Gianluca Femminis, 2019. "Risk aversion heterogeneity and the investment–uncertainty relationship," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 223-264, August.
    16. Jagadish Prasad Sahu & Santosh Kumar Dash, 2021. "What Explains FDI Inflows to ASEAN Countries? Evidence from Quantile Regressions," Journal of Asian Economic Integration, , vol. 3(1), pages 25-37, April.
    17. Maria Borga & Perla Ibarlucea Flores & Monika Sztajerowska, 2020. "Drivers of divestment decisions of multinational enterprises - A cross-country firm-level perspective," OECD Working Papers on International Investment 2019/03, OECD Publishing.
    18. Tun, yin-li & Azman-saini, w.n.w. & Law, siong-hook, 2012. "International evidence on the link between foreign direct investment and institutional quality," MPRA Paper 65644, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Khalid Sekkat, 2013. "The Formal and Informal Framework of Foreign Direct Investment," Working Papers 810, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2013.
    20. Federico Carril-Caccia & Juliette Milgram Baleix & Jordi Paniagua, 2019. "The foreign direct investment-institution nexus in oil-abundant countries," Working Papers 1903, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332623. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.