IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/binfse/v58y2016i6d10.1007_s12599-016-0423-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decision Support for IT Investment Projects

Author

Listed:
  • Marcel Philipp Müller

    (University of Innsbruck)

  • Sebastian Stöckl

    (University of Liechtenstein)

  • Steffen Zimmermann

    (University of Innsbruck)

  • Bernd Heinrich

    (University of Regensburg)

Abstract

Managerial flexibilities have to be taken into account in ex-ante decision-making on IT investment projects (ITIPs). In many papers of the IS literature, standard financial option pricing models are used to value such managerial flexibilities. Based on a review of the related literature, the paper critically discusses the assumptions of the most frequently used financial option pricing model, namely the Black–Scholes model, arguing for relaxed assumptions that better represent the characteristics of ITIPs. The authors find that existing real option analysis approaches featured in the IS, Finance, and Economics literature are unable to consider more than two of our relaxed assumptions. Consequently, they present their own approach in form of a simulation model for the valuation of real options in ITIPs which offers a better representation of the characteristics of ITIPs by taking the discounted cash-flows and the runtime to be uncertain as well as the market to be incomplete. Based on these modifications of the Black–Scholes model’s assumptions, it is found that the resulting option value contains idiosyncratic risk that has to be taken into account in ITIP decision making. For the realistic case of risk averse decision makers, the consideration of idiosyncratic risk usually leads to a lower risk-adjusted option value, compared to one calculated by means of the Black–Scholes model. This confirms the perception of managers who feel that financial option pricing models frequently overvalue ITIPs and hence may induce flawed investment decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Philipp Müller & Sebastian Stöckl & Steffen Zimmermann & Bernd Heinrich, 2016. "Decision Support for IT Investment Projects," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 58(6), pages 381-396, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:binfse:v:58:y:2016:i:6:d:10.1007_s12599-016-0423-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s12599-016-0423-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12599-016-0423-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12599-016-0423-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Unser, Matthias, 2000. "Lower partial moments as measures of perceived risk: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 253-280, June.
    2. Epstein, D. & Mayor, N. & Schonbucher, P. & Whalley, A. E. & Wilmott, P., 1998. "The valuation of a firm advertising optimally," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 149-166.
    3. Pindyck, Robert S., 1993. "Investments of uncertain cost," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 53-76, August.
    4. Merton, Robert C, 1998. "Applications of Option-Pricing Theory: Twenty-Five Years Later," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 323-349, June.
    5. Christian-Oliver Ewald & Zhaojun Yang, 2008. "Utility based pricing and exercising of real options under geometric mean reversion and risk aversion toward idiosyncratic risk," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 68(1), pages 97-123, August.
    6. Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
    7. Octavio A. F. Tourinho., 1979. "The Option Value of Reserves of Natural Resources," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 94, University of California at Berkeley.
    8. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. James E. Smith & Robert F. Nau, 1995. "Valuing Risky Projects: Option Pricing Theory and Decision Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(5), pages 795-816, May.
    10. Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde & Jürgen Schupp & Gert G. Wagner, 2005. "Individual Risk Attitudes: New Evidence from a Large, Representative, Experimentally-Validated Survey," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 511, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Hugonnier, Julien & Morellec, Erwan, 2007. "Corporate control and real investment in incomplete markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1781-1800, May.
    12. Nicolas P. B. Bollen, 1999. "Real Options and Product Life Cycles," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(5), pages 670-684, May.
    13. Sandmo, Agnar, 1971. "On the Theory of the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 65-73, March.
    14. Blanchet-Scalliet, Christophette & El Karoui, Nicole & Martellini, Lionel, 2005. "Dynamic asset pricing theory with uncertain time-horizon," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1737-1764, October.
    15. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    16. Ewald, Christian-Oliver & Wang, Wen-Kai, 2010. "Irreversible investment with Cox-Ingersoll-Ross type mean reversion," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 314-318, May.
    17. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2003. "The effect of mean reversion on investment under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 377-396, November.
    18. Gordon Sick & Andrea Gamba, 2010. "Some Important Issues Involving Real Options: An Overview," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 14(1-2), pages 73-123, March-Jun.
    19. Paul Childs & Steven Ott & Timothy Riddiough, 2001. "Valuation and Information Acquisition Policy for Claims Written on Noisy Real Assets," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 30(2), Summer.
    20. Christian Ullrich, 2013. "Valuation of IT Investments Using Real Options Theory," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 5(5), pages 331-341, October.
    21. Sebastian Jaimungal & Max O. de Souza & Jorge P. Zubelli, 2013. "Real option pricing with mean-reverting investment and project value," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7-8), pages 625-644, September.
    22. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    23. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-157, April.
    24. F. Wu & H. Li & L. Chu & D. Sculli & K. Gao, 2009. "An approach to the valuation and decision of ERP investment projects based on real options," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 181-203, April.
    25. Metcalf, Gilbert E. & Hassett, Kevin A., 1995. "Investment under alternative return assumptions Comparing random walks and mean reversion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1471-1488, November.
    26. Michel Benaroch & Robert J. Kauffman, 1999. "A Case for Using Real Options Pricing Analysis to Evaluate Information Technology Project Investments," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 70-86, March.
    27. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    28. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    29. Lloyd Blenman & Steven Clark, 2005. "Options with Constant Underlying Elasticity in Strikes," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 67-83, August.
    30. Margrabe, William, 1978. "The Value of an Option to Exchange One Asset for Another," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 177-186, March.
    31. F. Hubalek & W. Schachermayer, 2001. "The Limitations Of No-Arbitrage Arguments For Real Options," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(02), pages 361-373.
    32. Eduardo S. Schwartz & Carlos Zozaya-Gorostiza, 2003. "Investment Under Uncertainty in Information Technology: Acquisition and Development Projects," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(1), pages 57-70, January.
    33. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    34. Guthrie, Graeme, 2007. "Missed Opportunities: Optimal Investment Timing When Information is Costly," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 467-488, June.
    35. José Carlos Dias & João Pedro Vidal Nunes, 2011. "Pricing real options under the constant elasticity of variance diffusion," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 230-250, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Berger & Christian Matt & Jochen Gönsch & Thomas Hess, 2019. "Is the Time Ripe? How the Value of Waiting and Incentives Affect Users’ Switching Behaviors for Smart Home Devices," Schmalenbach Business Review, Springer;Schmalenbach-Gesellschaft, vol. 71(1), pages 91-123, February.
    2. Josef Schosser, 2020. "Real Option Exercise Decisions in Information Technology Investments: a Comment," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 1-7, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
    2. Miranda, Oscar & Brandão, Luiz E. & Lazo Lazo, Juan, 2017. "A dynamic model for valuing flexible mining exploration projects under uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 393-404.
    3. Bouasker, O. & Letifi, N. & Prigent, J.-L., 2016. "Optimal funding and hiring/firing policies with mean reverting demand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 569-579.
    4. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.
    5. Felipe Isaza Cuervo & Sergio Botero Boterob, 2014. "Aplicación de las opciones reales en la toma de decisiones en los mercados de electricidad," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, November.
    6. Collan, Mikael, 2004. "Giga-Investments: Modelling the Valuation of Very Large Industrial Real Investments," MPRA Paper 4328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mark Broadie & Jerome B. Detemple, 2004. "ANNIVERSARY ARTICLE: Option Pricing: Valuation Models and Applications," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1145-1177, September.
    8. Seiji Harikae & James S. Dyer & Tianyang Wang, 2021. "Valuing Real Options in the Volatile Real World," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(1), pages 171-189, January.
    9. Insley, M.C. & Wirjanto, T.S., 2010. "Contrasting two approaches in real options valuation: Contingent claims versus dynamic programming," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 157-176, April.
    10. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    11. Josef Schosser, 2020. "Real Option Exercise Decisions in Information Technology Investments: a Comment," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 1-7, December.
    12. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1046 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Lambrecht, Bart M., 2017. "Real options in finance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 166-171.
    14. Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, 2020. "OPCIONES REALES Una guía teórico-práctica para la valoración de inversiones bajo incertidumbre mediante modelos en tiempo discreto y simulación de Monte Carlo," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales, number 138, August.
    15. Philipp N. Baecker, 2007. "Real Options and Intellectual Property," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-48264-2, December.
    16. Jan Vlachý, 2009. "Strategie podniku a finanční teorie [Corporate strategy and financial theory]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(2), pages 147-162.
    17. Yepes Rodri­guez, Ramón, 2008. "Real option valuation of free destination in long-term liquefied natural gas supplies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1909-1932, July.
    18. Christian Ullrich, 2013. "Valuation of IT Investments Using Real Options Theory," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 5(5), pages 331-341, October.
    19. Miao, Jianjun & Wang, Neng, 2007. "Investment, consumption, and hedging under incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 608-642, December.
    20. Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2010. "The effect of mean reversion on entry and exit decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 725-742, April.
    21. Bettina Freitag & Lukas Häfner & Verena Pfeuffer & Jochen Übelhör, 2020. "Evaluating investments in flexible on-demand production capacity: a real options approach," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 13(1), pages 133-161, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:binfse:v:58:y:2016:i:6:d:10.1007_s12599-016-0423-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.