IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v45y1999i5p670-684.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Real Options and Product Life Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas P. B. Bollen

    (Department of Finance, David Eccles School of Business, The University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah 84112)

Abstract

In this paper, I develop an option valuation framework that explicitly incorporates a product life cycle. I then use the framework to value the real option to change a project's capacity. Standard techniques for valuing real options typically ignore product life cycle models and specify instead a constant expected growth rate for demand or price. I show that this specification can lead to significant error in the valuation of capacity options. In particular, the standard technique tends to undervalue the option to contract capacity and overvalue the option to expand capacity. This result has important implications for capital investment decisions, especially in high-technology industries that feature regular introductions of newly improved products.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas P. B. Bollen, 1999. "Real Options and Product Life Cycles," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(5), pages 670-684, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:45:y:1999:i:5:p:670-684
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.45.5.670
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.45.5.670
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.45.5.670?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Saman Majd & Robert S. Pindyck, 1989. "The Learning Curve and Optimal Production under Uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 20(3), pages 331-343, Autumn.
    2. John A. Norton & Frank M. Bass, 1987. "A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(9), pages 1069-1086, September.
    3. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-157, April.
    4. Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March.
    5. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-985, December.
    6. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    7. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Valuing Derivative Securities Using the Explicit Finite Difference Method," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 87-100, March.
    8. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    9. Triantis, Alexander J & Hodder, James E, 1990. "Valuing Flexibility as a Complex Option," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 549-565, June.
    10. Constantinides, George M, 1978. "Market Risk Adjustment in Project Valuation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(2), pages 603-616, May.
    11. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    12. McDonald, Robert L & Siegel, Daniel R, 1985. "Investment and the Valuation of Firms When There Is an Option to Shut Down," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 331-349, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. M. I. M. Wahab & C. -G. Lee & P. Sarkar, 2023. "A real options approach to value manufacturing flexibilities with regime-switching product demand," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 864-895, September.
    2. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    3. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    4. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1046 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Akamatsu, Takashi & Nagae, Takeshi, 2011. "A network of options: Evaluating complex interdependent decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 714-729, May.
    7. Dalila B. M. M. Fontes & Luís Camões & Fernando A. C. C. Fontes, 2007. "Real Options using Markov Chains: an application to Production Capacity Decisions," FEP Working Papers 246, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    8. Fontes, Dalila B.M.M., 2008. "Fixed versus flexible production systems: A real options analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 169-184, July.
    9. Spiros H. Martzoukos & Nayia Pospori & Lenos Trigeorgis, 2024. "Corporate investment decisions with switch flexibility, constraints, and path-dependency," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1223-1250, April.
    10. repec:dau:papers:123456789/9845 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Chi-Yo Huang & Hong-Ling Hsieh & Hueiling Chen, 2020. "Evaluating the Investment Projects of Spinal Medical Device Firms Using the Real Option and DANP-mV Based MCDM Methods," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-41, May.
    12. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.
    13. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
    14. Bengtsson, Jens, 2001. "Manufacturing flexibility and real options: A review," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1-3), pages 213-224, December.
    15. Broadie, Mark & Glasserman, Paul, 1997. "Pricing American-style securities using simulation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1323-1352, June.
    16. repec:dau:papers:123456789/9848 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2010. "The effect of mean reversion on entry and exit decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 725-742, April.
    18. Chen, I-Ju & Wang, David K., 2019. "Real option, idiosyncratic risk, and corporate investment: Evidence from Taiwan family firms," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    19. Laarni T. Bulan, 2005. "Real options, irreversible investment and firm uncertainty: New evidence from U.S. firms," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(3-4), pages 255-279.
    20. Shackleton, Mark B. & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E. & Wojakowski, Rafal, 2004. "Strategic entry and market leadership in a two-player real options game," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 179-201, January.
    21. Andrianos Tsekrekos, 2013. "Irreversible exit decisions under mean-reverting uncertainty," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 5-23, September.
    22. Pindyck, Robert S., 1986. "Capital risk and models of investment behavior," Working papers 1819-86., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    23. Bulan, Laarni T., 2005. "Real options, irreversible investment and firm uncertainty: New evidence from U.S. firms," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 255-279.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:45:y:1999:i:5:p:670-684. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.