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Pricing real options under the constant elasticity of variance diffusion

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  • José Carlos Dias
  • João Pedro Vidal Nunes

Abstract

Much of the work on real options assumes that the underlying state variable follows a geometric Brownian motion with constant volatility. This paper uses a more general assumption for the state variable process that better captures the empirical regularities found in commodity markets. We use the constant elasticity of variance diffusion, where volatility is a function of underlying asset prices, and we provide analytic solutions for perpetual American options. We show that a firm that uses the standard lognormal assumption is exposed to significant errors of analysis, which may lead to nonoptimal investment and disinvestment decisions. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:230–250, 2011

Suggested Citation

  • José Carlos Dias & João Pedro Vidal Nunes, 2011. "Pricing real options under the constant elasticity of variance diffusion," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 230-250, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:31:y:2011:i:3:p:230-250
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    Cited by:

    1. Min-Ku Lee, 2019. "Pricing Perpetual American Lookback Options Under Stochastic Volatility," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 1265-1277, March.
    2. Alexander, Carol & Chen, Xi & Ward, Charles, 2021. "Risk-adjusted valuation for real option decisions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 1046-1064.
    3. Aricson Cruz & José Carlos Dias, 2020. "Valuing American-style options under the CEV model: an integral representation based method," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 63-83, April.
    4. Xiaotong Lian & Yingda Song, 2021. "Pricing and calibration of the futures options market: A unified approximation," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1074-1091, July.
    5. Kim, Jeong-Hoon & Lee, Min-Ku & Sohn, So Young, 2014. "Investment timing under hybrid stochastic and local volatility," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 58-72.
    6. Marcel Philipp Müller & Sebastian Stöckl & Steffen Zimmermann & Bernd Heinrich, 2016. "Decision Support for IT Investment Projects," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 58(6), pages 381-396, December.
    7. José Carlos Dias & João Pedro Vidal Nunes & Aricson Cruz, 2020. "A note on options and bubbles under the CEV model: implications for pricing and hedging," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 249-272, October.
    8. Zheng, Xiaoxiao & Zhou, Jieming & Sun, Zhongyang, 2016. "Robust optimal portfolio and proportional reinsurance for an insurer under a CEV model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 77-87.

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