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Irreversible Investment in Competitive Projects: A New Motive for Waiting to Invest

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  • BOBTCHEFF Catherine

    (LERNA, University of Toulouse)

  • VILLENEUVE Stephane

Abstract

We analyze a model of irreversible investment with two sources of uncertainty. A risk-neutral decision maker has the choice between two mutually exclusive projects under input price and output price uncertainty. We propose a complete study of the shape of the rational investment region and we prove that it is never optimal to invest when the alternative investments generate the same payoff independently of its size. A key feature of this bidimensional degree of uncertainty is thus that the payoff generated by each project is not a sufficient statistic to make a rational investment. In this context, our analysis provides a new motive for waiting to invest: the benefits associated with the dominance of one project over the other. As an illustration, we apply our methodology to power generation under uncertainty.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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  • BOBTCHEFF Catherine & VILLENEUVE Stephane, 2006. "Irreversible Investment in Competitive Projects: A New Motive for Waiting to Invest," LERNA Working Papers 06.20.213, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
  • Handle: RePEc:ler:wpaper:06.20.213
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    Cited by:

    1. Nishihara, Michi & Shibata, Takashi, 2013. "The effects of external financing costs on investment timing and sizing decisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1160-1175.
    2. repec:eee:ejores:v:270:y:2018:i:1:p:1-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Tsekrekos, Andrianos E. & Yannacopoulos, Athanasios N., 2016. "Optimal switching decisions under stochastic volatility with fast mean reversion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(1), pages 148-157.
    4. Nishihara, Michi, 2014. "Preemptive investment game with alternative projects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 124-135.
    5. Bahareh Mosadegh Sedghy & Rémy Lambert & Lota Dabio Tamini, 2016. "Supply response of corn farmers in Quebec: Analyzing the impact of prices volatility?," Cahiers de recherche CREATE 2016-1, CREATE.
    6. Tamini, L.D. & Doyon, M. & Zan, M.M., 2014. "Investment Behavior of Canadian Egg Producers: Analyzing the Impacts of Risk Aversion and Variability of Prices and Costs of Production," Working Papers 163032, University of Laval, Center for Research on the Economics of the Environment, Agri-food, Transports and Energy (CREATE).
    7. Ioannidis, Christos & Pym, David & Williams, Julian, 2012. "Information security trade-offs and optimal patching policies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 434-444.
    8. L.D. Tamini & M. Doyon & M.M. Zan, 2014. "Investment behavior of Canadian Egg Producers: Analyzing the Impacts of Risk Aversion and Variability of Prices and Costs of Production," Cahiers de recherche CREATE 2014-2, CREATE.
    9. Michi Nishihara, 2010. "A model for determining whether a firm should exercise multiple real options individually or simultaneously," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 10-12, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
    10. BOBTCHEFF Catherine, 2008. "Real Options and Technology Choice under Bertrand Competition," LERNA Working Papers 08.16.260, LERNA, University of Toulouse.

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