Irreversible Investment in Competitive Projects: A New Motive for Waiting to Invest
We analyze a model of irreversible investment with two sources of uncertainty. A risk-neutral decision maker has the choice between two mutually exclusive projects under input price and output price uncertainty. We propose a complete study of the shape of the rational investment region and we prove that it is never optimal to invest when the alternative investments generate the same payoff independently of its size. A key feature of this bidimensional degree of uncertainty is thus that the payoff generated by each project is not a sufficient statistic to make a rational investment. In this context, our analysis provides a new motive for waiting to invest: the benefits associated with the dominance of one project over the other. As an illustration, we apply our methodology to power generation under uncertainty.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|Date of creation:||Aug 2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: manufacture des Tabacs, 21 allée de brienne, 31200 Toulouse|
Phone: (+33) 5 61 12 86 23
Web page: http://www.toulouse.inra.fr/lerna/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Geltner, David & Riddiough, Timothy & Stojanovic, Srdjan, 1996. "Insights on the Effect of Land Use Choice: The Perpetual Option on the Best of Two Underlying Assets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 20-50, January.
- Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
- Louberge, Henri & Villeneuve, Stephane & Chesney, Marc, 2002.
"Long-term risk management of nuclear waste: a real options approach,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 157-180, November.
- CHESNEY, Marc & LOUBERGE, Henri & VILLENEUVE, Stéphane, 2001. "Long-term risk management of nuclear waste : a real options approach," Les Cahiers de Recherche 767, HEC Paris.
- Henri Loubergé & Stéphane Villeneuve & Marc Chesney, 2002. "Long-Term Risk Management of Nuclear Waste: A Real Options Approach," Working Papers hal-00594373, HAL.
- Jean-Paul Décamps & Thomas Mariotti & Stéphane Villeneuve, 2006. "Irreversible investment in alternative projects," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 28(2), pages 425-448, 06.
- Décamps, Jean-Paul & Mariotti, Thomas & Villeneuve, Stéphane, 2003. "Irreversible Investment in Alternative Projects," IDEI Working Papers 193, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Jul 2004.
- Bøckman, Thor & Fleten, Stein-Erik & Juliussen, Erik & Langhammer, Håvard J. & Revdal, Ingemar, 2008. "Investment timing and optimal capacity choice for small hydropower projects," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 255-267, October.
- Bøckman, Thor & Fleten, Stein-Erik & Juliussen, Erik & Langhammer, Håvard & Revdal, Ingemar, 2006. "Investment timing and optimal capacity choice for small hydropower projects," MPRA Paper 2693, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Dec 2006.
- Dixit, Avinash, 1993. "Choosing among alternative discrete investment projects under uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 265-268.
- Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
- Dixit, A., 1988. "Entry And Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty," Papers 91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
- Kenneth J. Arrow & Anthony C. Fisher, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 88(2), pages 312-319.
- Gollier, Christian & Proult, David & Thais, Francoise & Walgenwitz, Gilles, 2005. "Choice of nuclear power investments under price uncertainty: Valuing modularity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 667-685, July.
- Gollier, Christian, 2004. "Choice of Nuclear Power Investments under Price Uncertainty: Valuing Modularity," IDEI Working Papers 287, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Gollier, Christian & Proult, David & Thais, Françoise & Walgenwitz, Gilles, 2004. "Choice of Nuclear Power Investments ander Price Uncertainty: Valuing Modularity," IDEI Working Papers 270, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Felipe L. Aguerrevere, 2003. "Equilibrium Investment Strategies and Output Price Behavior: A Real-Options Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 1239-1272.
- Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-985, December.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1986. "Irreversible investment, capacity choice, and the value of the firm," Working papers 1802-86., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1986. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," NBER Working Papers 1980, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Broadie & Jérôme Detemple, 1997. "The Valuation of American Options on Multiple Assets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 241-286.
- Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-1012, December.
- Pindyck, Robert S, 1993. "A Note on Competitive Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 273-277, March.
- Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474, March.
- Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D., 2002. "Option Value, Uncertainty, and the Investment Decision," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(03), pages 341-374, September.
- Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
- Stephane Villeneuve, 1999. "Exercise regions of American options on several assets," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 295-322.
- John V. Leahy, 1993. "Investment in Competitive Equilibrium: The Optimality of Myopic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1105-1133.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-30. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)