Investment Timing under Incomplete Information
We study the decision of when to invest in an indivisible project whose value is perfectly observable but driven by a parameter that is unknown to the decision maker ex ante. This problem is equivalent to an optimal stopping problem for a bivariate Markov process. Using filtering and martingale techniques, we show that the optimal investment region is characterised by a continuous and non-decreasing boundary in the value/belief state space. This generates path-dependency in the optimal investment strategy. We further show that the decision maker always benefits from an uncertain drift relative to an 'average' drift situation. However, a local study of the investment boundary reveals that the value of the option to invest is not globally increasing with respect to the volatility of the value process.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|Date of creation:||2000|
|Date of revision:||Apr 2004|
|Publication status:||Published in Mathematics of Operations Research, vol.�30, n°2, mai 2005, p.�472-500.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +33 (0)5 61 12 85 89
Fax: + 33 (0)5 61 12 86 37
Web page: http://www.idei.fr/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Godfrey Keller & Sven Rady, 1997.
"Optimal Experimentation in a Changing Environment,"
STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series
/1997/333, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Arrow, Kenneth J & Fisher, Anthony C, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 312-19, May.
- Giuseppe Moscarini & Lones Smith, 2001. "The Optimal Level of Experimentation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1629-1644, November.
- Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-12, December.
- R. C. Merton, 1970.
"Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous-time Model,"
58, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
- Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki, 1996.
"Experimentation in Markets,"
1220, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki, 1996.
"Market Diffusion with Two-Sided Learning,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1138, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Felli, Leonardo & Harris, Christopher, 1996. "Learning, Wage Dynamics, and Firm-Specific Human Capital," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 838-68, August.
- Stephane Villeneuve, 1999. "Exercise regions of American options on several assets," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 295-322.
- Patrick Bolton & Christopher Harris, 1999. "Strategic Experimentation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 349-374, March.
- McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
- Dixit, A., 1988.
"Entry And Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty,"
91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
- Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979.
"Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-90, October.
- Yaozhong Hu & Bernt Øksendal, 1998. "Optimal time to invest when the price processes are geometric Brownian motions," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 295-310.
- Ernesto Mordecki, 1999. "Optimal stopping for a diffusion with jumps," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 227-236.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ide:wpaper:661. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.