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Technology choice under several uncertainty sources

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  • Bobtcheff, Catherine
  • Villeneuve, Stéphane

Abstract

We analyze a model of irreversible investment with two sources of uncertainty. A risk-neutral decision maker has the choice between two mutually exclusive projects under input price and output price uncertainty. We propose a complete study of the shape of the rational investment region and we prove that it is never optimal to invest when the alternative investments generate the same payoff independently of its size. A key feature of this bidimensional degree of uncertainty is thus that the payoff generated by each project is not a sufficient statistic to make a rational investment. In this context, our analysis provides a new motive for waiting to invest: the benefits associated with the dominance of one project over the other. As an illustration, we apply our methodology to power generation under uncertainty.

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  • Bobtcheff, Catherine & Villeneuve, Stéphane, 2010. "Technology choice under several uncertainty sources," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 206(3), pages 586-600, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:206:y:2010:i:3:p:586-600
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    6. Bahareh Mosadegh Sedghy & Rémy Lambert & Lota Dabio Tamini, 2016. "Supply response of corn farmers in Quebec: Analyzing the impact of prices volatility?," Cahiers de recherche CREATE 2016-1, CREATE.
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    8. Detemple, Jerome & Kitapbayev, Yerkin, 2020. "The value of green energy under regulation uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    9. Detemple, Jerome & Kitapbayev, Yerkin, 2022. "Optimal technology adoption for power generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    10. Jerome Detemple & Yerkin Kitapbayev, 2021. "Optimal Power Investment and Pandemics: A Micro-Economic Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-25, February.
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    12. Michi Nishihara, 2010. "A model for determining whether a firm should exercise multiple real options individually or simultaneously," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 10-12, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    13. BOBTCHEFF Catherine, 2008. "Real Options and Technology Choice under Bertrand Competition," LERNA Working Papers 08.16.260, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    14. Trigeorgis, Lenos & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2018. "Real Options in Operations Research: A Review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(1), pages 1-24.
    15. Nishihara, Michi, 2014. "Preemptive investment game with alternative projects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 124-135.
    16. Zhu, Lei & Li, Li & Su, Bin, 2021. "The price-bidding strategy for investors in a renewable auction: An option games–based study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
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    18. Mosadegh Sedghy, Bahareh & Tamini, Lota Dabio & Lambert, Remy, 2018. "Effects of Price Insurance Programs on Supply Response: A Case Study of Corn Farmers in Quebec," MPRA Paper 93816, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Nov 2018.

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