A Real Options Model for Electricity Capacity Expansion
This paper proposes a real option capacity expansion model for power generation with several technologies that differ in operation and investment costs. The economy is assumed perfectly competitive and the instantaneous payoff accruing from the generation system is the instantaneous welfare defined as the usual sum of consumer and producer surplus. The computation of this welfare requires the solution of a multi- technology optimization problem and the obtained optimal function value is not additively separable in generation capacities, contrary to what is generally assumed in multi asset real option models to prove the optimality of a myopic behavior. Using the geometric Brownian motion as uncertainty driver we propose two regression models to approximate the instantaneous welfare. A first, additively separable approximation implies the optimality of myopia. The second approximation is non separable and hence forces to take myopic behavior as an assumption. Using myopia as an assumption, we propose a semianalytic method which combines Monte Carlo simulations (used to compute the value of the marginal capacity) and analytical treatment (to solve an optimal stopping problem on a regression scheme).
|Date of creation:||21 Feb 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Convento, Via delle Fontanelle, 19, 50014 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI) Italy|
Web page: http://www.eui.eu/RSCAS/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C., 1999. "The Timing and Intensity of Investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 57-77, January.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1992.
"Investments of Uncertain Cost,"
NBER Working Papers
4175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
- Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro, José M., 2008. "European CO2 prices and carbon capture investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2992-3015, November.
- Dangl, Thomas, 1999. "Investment and capacity choice under uncertain demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 415-428, September.
- Boetius, Frederik & Kohlmann, Michael, 1998. "Connections between optimal stopping and singular stochastic control," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 253-281, September.
- Harrison, J. Michael & Taylor, Allison J., 1978. "Optimal control of a Brownian storage system," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 179-194, January.
- Guo, Xin & Pham, Huyên, 2005. "Optimal partially reversible investment with entry decision and general production function," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 115(5), pages 705-736, May.
- Felipe L. Aguerrevere, 2003. "Equilibrium Investment Strategies and Output Price Behavior: A Real-Options Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 1239-1272.
- Décamps, Jean-Paul & Mariotti, Thomas & Villeneuve, Stéphane, 2003.
"Irreversible Investment in Alternative Projects,"
IDEI Working Papers
193, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Jul 2004.
- Chamorro Gómez, José Manuel & Abadie, Luis M., 2006.
"Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments,"
2006-25, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico I.
- He, Hua & Pindyck, Robert S., 1992.
"Investments in flexible production capacity,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 575-599.
- Avinash Dixit, 1992.
"Irreversible investment with uncertainty and scale economies,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
19372, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Dixit, Avinash, 1995. "Irreversible investment with uncertainty and scale economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 327-350.
- Avinash Dixit, 1992. "Irreversible Investment with Uncertainty and Scale Economies," STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series 240, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro, José M., 2008.
"Valuing flexibility: The case of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle power plant,"
Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1850-1881, July.
- Chamorro Gómez, José Manuel & Abadie, Luis M., 2005. "Valuing Flexibility: The case of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Power Plant," IKERLANAK 2005-21, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico I.
- Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C., 1998. "A model of sequential investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 437-463, March.
- Erkka Näsäkkälä & Stein- Erik Fleten, 2004.
"Flexibility and Technology Choice in Gas Fired Power Plant Investments,"
0405004, EconWPA, revised 06 Apr 2006.
- Nasakkala, Erkka & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2005. "Flexibility and technology choice in gas fired power plant investments," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 371-393.
- Dixit, Avinash K, 1989.
"Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-38, June.
- Ioannis Karatzas & Fridrik M. Baldursson, 1996. "Irreversible investment and industry equilibrium (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 69-89.
- Fleten, Stein-Erik & Näsäkkälä, Erkka, 2010. "Gas-fired power plants: Investment timing, operating flexibility and CO2 capture," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 805-816, July.
- Nicola Secomandi, 2010. "On the Pricing of Natural Gas Pipeline Capacity," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 12(3), pages 393-408, October.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-81, September.
- Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C, 1996. "Investment Lags," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 610-22, June.
- Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Alvarez, Luis H. R., 2000. "Singular stochastic control in the presence of a state-dependent yield structure," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 323-343, April.
- Avinash Dixit, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-132, Winter.
- Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-57, April.
- Kerry Back & Dirk Paulsen, 2009. "Open-Loop Equilibria and Perfect Competition in Option Exercise Games," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4531-4552, November.
- John V. Leahy, 1993. "Investment in Competitive Equilibrium: The Optimality of Myopic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1105-1133.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2012/08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RSCAS web unit)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.