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Valuing flexibility: The case of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle power plant

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  • Abadie, Luis M.
  • Chamorro, José M.

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the choice between two technologies for producing electricity. In particular, the firm has to decide whether and when to invest either in a Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant or in an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) power plant, which may burn either coal or natural gas. Instead of assuming that fuel prices follow standard geometric Brownian motions, here they are assumed to show mean reversion, specifically to follow an inhomogeneous geometric Brownian motion. First we consider the opportunity to invest in a NGCC power plant. We derive the optimal investment rule as a function of natural gas price and the remaining life of the right to invest. In addition, the analytical solution for a perpetual option to invest is obtained. Then we turn to the IGCC power plant. We analyse the valuation of an operating plant when there are switching costs between modes of operation, and the choice of the best operation mode. This serves as an input to evaluate the option to invest in this plant. Finally we derive the value of an opportunity to invest either in a NGCC or IGCC power plant, i.e. to choose between an inflexible and a flexible technology, respectively. Depending on the opportunity's time to maturity, we derive the pairs of coal and gas prices for which it is optimal to invest in NGCC, in IGCC, or simply not to invest. Numerical computations involve the use of one- and two-dimensional binomial lattices that support a mean-reverting process for coal and gas prices. Basic parameter values are taken from an actual IGCC power plant currently in operation. Sensitivity of some results with respect to the underlying stochastic process for fuel price is also checked.

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  • Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro, José M., 2008. "Valuing flexibility: The case of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle power plant," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1850-1881, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:30:y:2008:i:4:p:1850-1881
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    3. Blum, Helcio & Legey, Luiz F.L., 2012. "The challenging economics of energy security: Ensuring energy benefits in support to sustainable development," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1982-1989.
    4. Luis M. Abadie, 2009. "Valuation of Long-Term Investments in Energy Assets under Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-31, September.
    5. Simshauser, Paul, 2020. "Merchant renewables and the valuation of peaking plant in energy-only markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Multi-Commodity Real Options Analysis of Power Plant Investments: Discounting Endogenous Risk Structures," FCN Working Papers 22/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    7. Penizzotto, F. & Pringles, R. & Olsina, F., 2019. "Real options valuation of photovoltaic power investments in existing buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Luis M. Abadie & José M. Chamorro, 2009. "The Economics of Gasification: A Market-Based Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-33, August.
    9. Elias, R.S. & Wahab, M.I.M. & Fang, L., 2016. "The spark spread and clean spark spread option based valuation of a power plant with multiple turbines," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 314-327.
    10. Rios, Daniel & Blanco, Gerardo & Olsina, Fernando, 2019. "Integrating Real Options Analysis with long-term electricity market models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 188-205.
    11. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Näsäkkälä, Erkka, 2010. "Gas-fired power plants: Investment timing, operating flexibility and CO2 capture," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 805-816, July.
    12. Detemple, Jerome & Kitapbayev, Yerkin, 2022. "Optimal technology adoption for power generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    13. Machin, Einara Blanco & Pedroso, Daniel Travieso & Machín, Adrian Blanco & Acosta, Daviel Gómez & Silva dos Santos, Maria Isabel & Solferini de Carvalho, Felipe & Pérez, Néstor Proenza & Pascual, Rodr, 2021. "Biomass integrated gasification-gas turbine combined cycle (BIG/GTCC) implementation in the Brazilian sugarcane industry: Economic and environmental appraisal," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 529-540.
    14. Melchior, Tobias & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Economic evaluation of IGCC plants with hot gas cleaning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 170-184.
    15. Fernández Macho, Francisco Javier, 2011. "Stochastic Surface Models for Commodity Futures: A 2D Kalman Filter Approach," BILTOKI 1134-8984, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística).
    16. Joachim Gahungu and Yves Smeers, 2012. "A Real Options Model for Electricity Capacity Expansion," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/08, European University Institute.
    17. Somayeh Heydari & Nick Ovenden & Afzal Siddiqui, 2012. "Real options analysis of investment in carbon capture and sequestration technology," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 109-138, February.
    18. Xiaojia Guo & Alexandros Beskos & Afzal Siddiqui, 2016. "The natural hedge of a gas-fired power plant," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 63-86, January.
    19. Dominik Kryzia & Michał Kopacz & Katarzyna Kryzia, 2020. "The Valuation of the Operational Flexibility of the Energy Investment Project Based on a Gas-Fired Power Plant," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, March.
    20. Piotr W. Saługa & Paweł Grzesiak & Jacek Kamiński, 2020. "Valuation of Decision Flexibility and Strategic Value in Coal Gasification Projects with the Option-To-Switch between Different Outputs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-20, June.
    21. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Näsäkkälä, Erkka, 2003. "Gas fired power plants: Investment timing, operating flexibility and abandonment," MPRA Paper 217, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2006.
    22. Glover, Kristoffer J. & Hambusch, Gerhard, 2016. "Leveraged investments and agency conflicts when cash flows are mean reverting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-21.
    23. Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2011. "A real options–based CCS investment evaluation model: Case study of China’s power generation sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 4320-4333.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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