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Capacity expansion games with application to competition in power generation investments

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  • Aïd, René
  • Li, Liangchen
  • Ludkovski, Michael

Abstract

We consider competitive capacity investment for a duopoly of two distinct producers. The producers are exposed to stochastically fluctuating costs and interact through aggregate supply. Capacity expansion is irreversible and modeled in terms of timing strategies characterized through threshold rules. Because the impact of changing costs on the producers is asymmetric, we are led to a nonzero-sum timing game describing the transitions among the discrete investment stages. Working in a continuous-time diffusion framework, we characterize and analyze the resulting Nash equilibrium and game values. Our analysis quantifies the dynamic competition effects and yields insight into dynamic preemption and over-investment in a general asymmetric setting. A case-study considering the impact of fluctuating emission costs on power producers investing in nuclear and coal-fired plants is also presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Aïd, René & Li, Liangchen & Ludkovski, Michael, 2017. "Capacity expansion games with application to competition in power generation investments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 1-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:84:y:2017:i:c:p:1-31
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2017.08.002
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Liangchen Li & Michael Ludkovski, 2018. "Stochastic Switching Games," Papers 1807.03893, arXiv.org.
    2. Ren'e Aid & Luciano Campi & Liangchen Li & Mike Ludkovski, 2020. "An Impulse-Regime Switching Game Model of Vertical Competition," Papers 2006.04382, arXiv.org.
    3. René Aïd & Luciano Campi & Liangchen Li & Mike Ludkovski, 2021. "An Impulse-Regime Switching Game Model of Vertical Competition," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 631-669, December.
    4. Bichuch, Maxim & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & Song, Xinyue, 2023. "Identifying optimal capacity expansion and differentiated capacity payments under risk aversion and market power: A financial Stackelberg game approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capacity expansion; Continuous-time games of timing; Non-zero-sum stopping games; Power generation investments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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