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Entry into the electricity market: Uncertainty, competition, and mothballing options

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  • Takashima, Ryuta
  • Goto, Makoto
  • Kimura, Hiroshi
  • Madarame, Haruki

Abstract

The present paper analyzes the entry strategies into the electricity market of two firms that have power plants under price uncertainty and competition. We consider the symmetric and asymmetric two firms, which have either a thermal power plant or a nuclear power plant. The differences between the thermal power plant and the nuclear power plant, such as the cost structure and operational flexibility are modeled. The threshold values of market entry are calculated for each firm with either the thermal power plant or the nuclear power plant as the leader or the follower. We show the dependence of cost structures on entry thresholds of the leader and the follower into the electricity market. For various market and cost conditions, the diagrams of the leader are also shown.

Suggested Citation

  • Takashima, Ryuta & Goto, Makoto & Kimura, Hiroshi & Madarame, Haruki, 2008. "Entry into the electricity market: Uncertainty, competition, and mothballing options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1809-1830, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:30:y:2008:i:4:p:1809-1830
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Grzegorz Pawlina & Peter M. Kort, 2006. "Real Options in an Asymmetric Duopoly: Who Benefits from Your Competitive Disadvantage?," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-35, March.
    2. Olsina, Fernando & Garces, Francisco & Haubrich, H.-J., 2006. "Modeling long-term dynamics of electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 1411-1433, August.
    3. Ventosa, Mariano & Baillo, Alvaro & Ramos, Andres & Rivier, Michel, 2005. "Electricity market modeling trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 897-913, May.
    4. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. " The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-1679, December.
    5. Gollier, Christian & Proult, David & Thais, Francoise & Walgenwitz, Gilles, 2005. "Choice of nuclear power investments under price uncertainty: Valuing modularity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 667-685, July.
    6. Felipe L. Aguerrevere, 2003. "Equilibrium Investment Strategies and Output Price Behavior: A Real-Options Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 1239-1272.
    7. Steven R. Grenadier, 2002. "Option Exercise Games: An Application to the Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firms," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 691-721.
    8. Murto, Pauli & Nasakkala, Erkka & Keppo, Jussi, 2004. "Timing of investments in oligopoly under uncertainty: A framework for numerical analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 486-500, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arango, Santiago & Castañeda, Jaime A. & Larsen, Erik R., 2013. "Mothballing in power markets: An experimental study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 125-134.
    2. Chronopoulos, Michail & De Reyck, Bert & Siddiqui, Afzal, 2014. "Duopolistic competition under risk aversion and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 236(2), pages 643-656.
    3. Siddiqui, Afzal & Takashima, Ryuta, 2012. "Capacity switching options under rivalry and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 583-595.
    4. Chevalier-Roignant, Benoît & Flath, Christoph M. & Huchzermeier, Arnd & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2011. "Strategic investment under uncertainty: A synthesis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(3), pages 639-650, December.
    5. repec:eee:dyncon:v:84:y:2017:i:c:p:1-31 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Martínez Ceseña, E.A. & Mutale, J. & Rivas-Dávalos, F., 2013. "Real options theory applied to electricity generation projects: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 573-581.
    7. Michail Chronopoulos, Derek Bunn, and Afzal Siddiqui, 2014. "Optionality and Policymaking in Re-Transforming the British Power Market," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    8. repec:eee:jbfina:v:81:y:2017:i:c:p:207-220 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Tatyana Deryugina & Alexander MacKay & Julian Reif, 2017. "The Long-Run Dynamics of Electricity Demand: Evidence from Municipal Aggregation," NBER Working Papers 23483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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