IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Developing real option game models

Listed author(s):
  • Azevedo, Alcino
  • Paxson, Dean
Registered author(s):

    By mixing concepts from both game theoretic analysis and real options theory, an investment decision in a competitive market can be seen as a “game” between firms, as firms implicitly take into account other firms’ reactions to their own investment actions. We review two decades of real option game models, suggesting which critical problems have been “solved” by considering game theory, and which significant problems have not been yet adequately addressed. We provide some insights on the plausible empirical applications, or shortfalls in applications to date, and suggest some promising avenues for future research.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221714001179
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.

    Volume (Year): 237 (2014)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 909-920

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:237:y:2014:i:3:p:909-920
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2014.02.002
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Steven R. Grenadier, 2002. "Option Exercise Games: An Application to the Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firms," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 691-721.
    2. Anderson, Steven T & Friedman, Daniel & Oprea, Ryan, 2008. "Preemption Games: Theory and Experiment," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt0pr4g8h1, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    3. Felipe L. Aguerrevere, 2003. "Equilibrium Investment Strategies and Output Price Behavior: A Real-Options Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 1239-1272.
    4. Partha Dasgupta & Eric Maskin, 1986. "The Existence of Equilibrium in Discontinuous Economic Games, II: Applications," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 27-41.
    5. Leo K. Simon and Maxwell B. Stinchcombe., 1987. "Extensive Form Games in Continuous Time: Pure Strategies," Economics Working Papers 8746, University of California at Berkeley.
    6. James Bergin, 1989. "A Model of Strategic Behaviour in Repeated Games," Working Papers 751, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    7. Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2003. "Strategic investment in technological innovations," Other publications TiSEM 19205076-9017-44f3-8658-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Alvarez, Luis H. R., 1998. "Exit strategies and price uncertainty: a Greenian approach," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 43-56, January.
    9. Decamps, Jean-Paul & Mariotti, Thomas, 2004. "Investment timing and learning externalities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 80-102, September.
    10. Rida Laraki & Eilon Solan & Nicolas Vieille, 2003. "Continuous-Time Games of Timing," Working Papers hal-00591682, HAL.
    11. John V. Leahy, 1993. "Investment in Competitive Equilibrium: The Optimality of Myopic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1105-1133.
    12. Siddiqui, Afzal & Takashima, Ryuta, 2012. "Capacity switching options under rivalry and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 583-595.
    13. Gilbert, Richard & Harris, Richard G., 1984. "Competition with Lumpy Investment," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt11v5q20z, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    14. Shackleton, Mark B. & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E. & Wojakowski, Rafal, 2004. "Strategic entry and market leadership in a two-player real options game," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 179-201, January.
    15. Kreps, David M. & Wilson, Robert, 1982. "Reputation and imperfect information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 253-279, August.
    16. Reiss, Ariane, 1998. "Investment in Innovations and Competition: An Option Pricing Approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 635-650.
    17. Lambrecht, Bart M, 2001. "The Impact of Debt Financing on Entry and Exit in a Duopoly," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 765-804.
    18. Steven R. Grenadier, 2000. "Option Exercise Games: The Intersection Of Real Options And Game Theory," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 13(2), pages 99-107.
    19. Drew Fudenberg & Jean Tirole, 1985. "Preemption and Rent Equalization in the Adoption of New Technology," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(3), pages 383-401.
    20. Nalin Kulatilaka & Enrico C. Perotti, 1998. "Strategic Growth Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(8), pages 1021-1031, August.
    21. Chevalier-Roignant, Benoît & Flath, Christoph M. & Huchzermeier, Arnd & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2011. "Strategic investment under uncertainty: A synthesis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(3), pages 639-650, December.
    22. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    23. Nielsen, Martin J., 2002. "Competition and irreversible investments," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 731-743, May.
    24. Weeds, H., 2000. "Strategic Delay in a Real Optimna Model of R&D Competition," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 576, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    25. Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2000. "Strategic Technology Adoptation Taking into Account Future Technological Improvements : A Real Options Approach," Discussion Paper 2000-52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    26. repec:dau:papers:123456789/12655 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Garlappi, Lorenzo, 2004. "Risk Premia and Preemption in R&D Ventures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(04), pages 843-872, December.
    28. Nash, John, 1950. "The Bargaining Problem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 18(2), pages 155-162, April.
    29. Grzegorz Pawlina & Peter M. Kort, 2006. "Real Options in an Asymmetric Duopoly: Who Benefits from Your Competitive Disadvantage?," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-35, 03.
    30. Jean Tirole, 1988. "The Theory of Industrial Organization," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262200716.
    31. Bouis, R. & Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2006. "Investment in Oligopoly under Uncertainty : The Accordion Effect," Discussion Paper 2006-69, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    32. Fudenberg, Drew & Tirole, Jean, 1986. "A Theory of Exit in Duopoly," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 943-960, July.
    33. Baldursson, Fridrik M., 1998. "Irreversible investment under uncertainty in oligopoly," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 627-644, April.
    34. Bergin, James & MacLeod, W Bentley, 1993. "Continuous Time Repeated Games," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(1), pages 21-37, February.
    35. Williams, Joseph T, 1993. "Equilibrium and Options on Real Assets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(4), pages 825-850.
    36. Stenbacka, Rune & Tombak, Mihkel M., 1994. "Strategic timing of adoption of new technologies under uncertainty," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 387-411, September.
    37. Suresh Sundaresan & Neng Wang, 2007. "Investment under Uncertainty with Strategic Debt Service," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 256-261, May.
    38. Murto, Pauli & Nasakkala, Erkka & Keppo, Jussi, 2004. "Timing of investments in oligopoly under uncertainty: A framework for numerical analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 486-500, September.
    39. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. " The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-1679, December.
    40. Alvarez, Luis H. R., 1999. "Optimal exit and valuation under demand uncertainty: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 320-329, April.
    41. David Kreps & Robert Wilson, 1998. "Sequential Equilibria," Levine's Working Paper Archive 237, David K. Levine.
    42. Thijssen, J.J.J. & Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2002. "Symmetric Equilibrium Strategies in Game Theoretical Real Option Models," Discussion Paper 2002-81, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    43. Kong, Jean J. & Kwok, Yue Kuen, 2007. "Real options in strategic investment games between two asymmetric firms," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(2), pages 967-985, September.
    44. Marcel Boyer & Pierre Lasserre & Michel Moreaux, 2011. "A Dynamic Duopoly Investment Game without Commitment under Uncertain Market Expansion," CIRANO Working Papers 2011s-65, CIRANO.
    45. Leung, Chi Man & Kwok, Yue Kuen, 2012. "Patent-investment games under asymmetric information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(2), pages 441-451.
    46. Grenadier, Steven R, 1999. "Information Revelation through Option Exercise," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 95-129.
    47. Pauli Murto, 2004. "Exit in Duopoly Under Uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 35(1), pages 111-127, Spring.
    48. Smit, Han T.J. & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2006. "Real options and games: Competition, alliances and other applications of valuation and strategy," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 95-112.
    49. Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2010. "Preemption in a real option game with a first mover advantage and player-specific uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(6), pages 2448-2462, November.
    50. Sodal, Sigbjorn, 2006. "Entry and exit decisions based on a discount factor approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 1963-1986, November.
    51. Dutta Prajit K. & Rustichini Aldo, 1995. "(s, S) Equilibria in Stochastic Games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-39, October.
    52. Hans T.J. Smit, 2003. "Infrastructure Investment as a Real Options Game: The Case of European Airport Expansion," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 32(4), pages -, Winter.
    53. Mason, Robin & Weeds, Helen, 2010. "Investment, uncertainty and pre-emption," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 278-287, May.
    54. Paxson, Dean & Pinto, Helena, 2005. "Rivalry under price and quantity uncertainty," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 209-224.
    55. Nash, John, 1953. "Two-Person Cooperative Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 21(1), pages 128-140, April.
    56. Stinchcombe, Maxwell B., 1992. "Maximal strategy sets for continuous-time game theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 235-265, April.
    57. Lambrecht, Bart & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Real options and preemption under incomplete information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 619-643, February.
    58. Graham, Jeffrey, 2011. "Strategic real options under asymmetric information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 922-934, June.
    59. Baba, Naohiko, 2001. "Uncertainty, Monitoring Costs, and Private Banks' Lending Decisions in a Duopolistic Loan Market: A Game-Theoretic Real Options Approach," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(2), pages 21-47, May.
    60. David E. Mills, 1988. "Preemptive Investment Timing," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(1), pages 114-122, Spring.
    61. Felipe L. Aguerrevere, 2009. "Real Options, Product Market Competition, and Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 957-983, 04.
    62. Partha Dasgupta & Eric Maskin, 1986. "The Existence of Equilibrium in Discontinuous Economic Games, I: Theory," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 1-26.
    63. Odening, Martin & Mu[ss]hoff, Oliver & Hirschauer, Norbert & Balmann, Alfons, 2007. "Investment under uncertainty--Does competition matter?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 994-1014, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:237:y:2014:i:3:p:909-920. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.