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The value of green energy under regulation uncertainty

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  • Detemple, Jerome
  • Kitapbayev, Yerkin

Abstract

We examine investments in power generation projects under policy uncertainty, when the investor has the choice between two alternative technologies, a gas-fired plant and a wind plant. Increased likelihood of subsidy withdrawal reduces the payoff from and postpones investments in the wind technology. Simultaneously, it accelerates investments in gas, thereby eliminating or further postponing investments in wind capacity. We show that this substitution phenomenon can be of first order importance: it can have a significant impact on the timing of investment, the wind premium, and the probability of investing in the wind technology. Our results provide new insights about the scope and impact of green energy regulation.

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  • Detemple, Jerome & Kitapbayev, Yerkin, 2020. "The value of green energy under regulation uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:89:y:2020:i:c:s014098832030147x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104807
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    Cited by:

    1. Felix Dammann & Giorgio Ferrari, 2023. "Optimal execution with multiplicative price impact and incomplete information on the return," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 713-768, July.
    2. Jan Niklas Buescher & Daria Gottwald & Florian Momm & Alexander Zureck, 2022. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis on the Efficiency of European Intraday Electricity Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-21, May.
    3. Wang, Bo & Zhao, Jun & Dong, Kangyin & Jiang, Qingzhe, 2022. "High-quality energy development in China: Comprehensive assessment and its impact on CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    4. Cinzia Bonaldo & Fulvio Fontini & Michele Moretto, 2022. "The Energy Transition and the Value of Capacity Remuneration Mechanisms," Working Papers 2022.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    5. D'Auria, Bernardo & García Portugués, Eduardo & Guada Azze, Abel, 2021. "Optimal stopping of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck bridge," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 33508, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    6. Abel Azze & Bernardo D'Auria & Eduardo Garc'ia-Portugu'es, 2022. "Optimal exercise of American options under time-dependent Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes," Papers 2211.04095, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    7. Dammann, Felix & Ferrari, Giorgio, 2022. "Optimal Execution with Multiplicative Price Impact and Incomplete Information on the Return," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 663, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    8. Felix Dammann & Giorgio Ferrari, 2021. "On an Irreversible Investment Problem with Two-Factor Uncertainty," Papers 2103.08258, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    9. Detemple, Jerome & Kitapbayev, Yerkin, 2022. "Optimal technology adoption for power generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    10. Jerome Detemple & Yerkin Kitapbayev, 2021. "Optimal Power Investment and Pandemics: A Micro-Economic Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-25, February.
    11. Dammann, Felix & Ferrari, Giorgio, 2021. "On an Irreversible Investment Problem with Two-Factor Uncertainty," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 646, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    12. Felix Dammann & Giorgio Ferrari, 2022. "Optimal Execution with Multiplicative Price Impact and Incomplete Information on the Return," Papers 2202.10414, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    13. Abel Azze & Bernardo D'Auria & Eduardo Garc'ia-Portugu'es, 2022. "Optimal stopping of Gauss-Markov bridges," Papers 2211.05835, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    14. Ji, Xiangfeng & Chen, Xueqi & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Sustainable energy goals and investment premium: Evidence from renewable and conventional equity mutual funds in the Euro zone," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Naqvi, Bushra & Mirza, Nawazish & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Porada-Rochoń, Małgorzata & Itani, Rania, 2021. "Is there a green fund premium? Evidence from twenty seven emerging markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Green energy; Wind plant; Gas-fired plant; Real options; Subsidy; Regulation uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

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