IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/b/spr/mathfi/v17y2023i4d10.1007_s11579-023-00343-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this book

Investment in two alternative projects with multiple switches and the exit option

Author

Listed:
  • Igor V. Kravchenko

    (IST-ID and CEMAT)

  • Cláudia Nunes

    (Universidade de Lisboa)

  • Carlos Oliveira

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology
    Universidade de Lisboa; REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics, CEMAPRE)

Abstract

This paper uses an analytical framework to examine a firm’s investment and switching strategy under uncertainty. The context is the possibility to launch and operate two distinct projects, one at a time, with exposure to a stochastic exogenous price. We allow for multiple switches between the two projects, along with abandonment options from each. These possibilities fundamentally influence the operational strategy. We show that under some conditions, a dichotomous waiting region may arise at the investment stage. In this case we have an inaction region, for a range of prices in a certain bounded interval, where the firm does not invest and waits to have more information about the price evolution. This region vanishes for a high level of uncertainty. Additionally, the firm may operate with a negative instantaneous profit. We prove that investment in this region is never optimal. Numerical examples enable comparative statics, while extension to allow for time-to-build is included.

Suggested Citation

  • Igor V. Kravchenko & Cláudia Nunes & Carlos Oliveira, 2023. "Investment in two alternative projects with multiple switches and the exit option," Mathematics and Financial Economics, Springer, volume 17, number 1, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:mathfi:v:17:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s11579-023-00343-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11579-023-00343-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11579-023-00343-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11579-023-00343-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March.
    2. Hagspiel, Verena & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M. & Nunes, Cláudia, 2016. "How to escape a declining market: Capacity investment or Exit?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 254(1), pages 40-50.
    3. Dixit, Avinash, 1993. "Choosing among alternative discrete investment projects under uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 265-268.
    4. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    5. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    6. Bobtcheff, Catherine & Villeneuve, Stéphane, 2010. "Technology choice under several uncertainty sources," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 206(3), pages 586-600, November.
    7. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Sulem, Agnes & Zanello, Alessandro, 2002. "Time-to-build and capacity choice," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 69-98, January.
    8. Jean-Paul Décamps & Thomas Mariotti & Stéphane Villeneuve, 2006. "Irreversible investment in alternative projects," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 28(2), pages 425-448, June.
    9. Mihail Zervos & Carlos Oliveira & Kate Duckworth, 2018. "An investment model with switching costs and the option to abandon," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 88(3), pages 417-443, December.
    10. Siddiqui, Afzal & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2010. "How to proceed with competing alternative energy technologies: A real options analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 817-830, July.
    11. Nunes, Cláudia & Pimentel, Rita, 2017. "Analytical solution for an investment problem under uncertainties with shocks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(3), pages 1054-1063.
    12. Guerra, Manuel & Kort, Peter & Nunes, Cláudia & Oliveira, Carlos, 2018. "Hysteresis due to irreversible exit: Addressing the option to mothball," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 69-83.
    13. H. Dharma Kwon, 2010. "Invest or Exit? Optimal Decisions in the Face of a Declining Profit Stream," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 638-649, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adkins, Roger & Paxson, Dean, 2019. "Rescaling-contraction with a lower cost technology when revenue declines," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 574-586.
    2. Nishihara, Michi & Shibata, Takashi, 2013. "The effects of external financing costs on investment timing and sizing decisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1160-1175.
    3. Chronopoulos, Michail & De Reyck, Bert & Siddiqui, Afzal, 2011. "Optimal investment under operational flexibility, risk aversion, and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 221-237, August.
    4. Michail Chronopoulos & Afzal Siddiqui, 2015. "When is it better to wait for a new version? Optimal replacement of an emerging technology under uncertainty," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 235(1), pages 177-201, December.
    5. Detemple, Jerome & Kitapbayev, Yerkin, 2022. "Optimal technology adoption for power generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    6. Chronopoulos, Michail & Siddiqui, Afzal, 2014. "When is it Better to Wait for a New Version? Optimal Replacement of an Emerging Technology under Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 2014/26, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    7. Jerome Detemple & Yerkin Kitapbayev, 2021. "Optimal Power Investment and Pandemics: A Micro-Economic Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-25, February.
    8. Kort, Peter M. & Murto, Pauli & Pawlina, Grzegorz, 2010. "Uncertainty and stepwise investment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 196-203, April.
    9. Jean-Paul Décamps & Thomas Mariotti & Stéphane Villeneuve, 2006. "Irreversible investment in alternative projects," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 28(2), pages 425-448, June.
    10. Fredrik Armerin & Han-Suck Song, 2021. "A framework for modelling cash flow lags," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(10), pages 1-13, October.
    11. Spiros H. Martzoukos & Nayia Pospori & Lenos Trigeorgis, 2024. "Corporate investment decisions with switch flexibility, constraints, and path-dependency," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1223-1250, April.
    12. Detemple, Jérôme & Kitapbayev, Yerkin & Reppen, A. Max, 2024. "Renewable energy investment under stochastic interest rate with regime-switching volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    13. Guerra, Manuel & Kort, Peter & Nunes, Cláudia & Oliveira, Carlos, 2018. "Hysteresis due to irreversible exit: Addressing the option to mothball," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 69-83.
    14. Chronopoulos, Michail & Lumbreras, Sara, 2017. "Optimal regime switching under risk aversion and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(2), pages 543-555.
    15. Jean-Paul Décamps & Fabien Gensbittel & Thomas Mariotti, 2025. "Investment Timing and Technological Breakthroughs," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 50(2), pages 1478-1513, May.
    16. Faninam, Farzan, 2024. "Essays on real options : Triopoly dynamics, disconnected investment regions, and multiple investment options," Other publications TiSEM cccc1cad-2899-4b57-9d83-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    17. Siddiqui, Afzal & Takashima, Ryuta, 2012. "Capacity switching options under rivalry and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 583-595.
    18. Alexandra Moura & Carlos Oliveira, 2024. "Reputation risk mitigation in investment strategies," Working Papers REM 2024/0309, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    19. Sendstad, Lars Hegnes & Chronopoulos, Michail, 2020. "Sequential investment in renewable energy technologies under policy uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    20. Somayeh Heydari & Nick Ovenden & Afzal Siddiqui, 2012. "Real options analysis of investment in carbon capture and sequestration technology," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 109-138, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:mathfi:v:17:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s11579-023-00343-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.