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Optimal investment under operational flexibility, risk aversion, and uncertainty

Author

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  • Chronopoulos, Michail
  • De Reyck, Bert
  • Siddiqui, Afzal

Abstract

Traditional real options analysis addresses the problem of investment under uncertainty assuming a risk-neutral decision maker and complete markets. In reality, however, decision makers are often risk averse and markets are incomplete. We confirm that risk aversion lowers the probability of investment and demonstrate how this effect can be mitigated by incorporating operational flexibility in the form of embedded suspension and resumption options. Although such options facilitate investment, we find that the likelihood of investing is still lower compared to the risk-neutral case. Risk aversion also increases the likelihood that the project will be abandoned, although this effect is less pronounced. Finally, we illustrate the impact of risk aversion on the optimal suspension and resumption thresholds and the interaction among risk aversion, volatility, and optimal decision thresholds under complete operational flexibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Chronopoulos, Michail & De Reyck, Bert & Siddiqui, Afzal, 2011. "Optimal investment under operational flexibility, risk aversion, and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 221-237, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:213:y:2011:i:1:p:221-237
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean-Paul Décamps & Thomas Mariotti & Stéphane Villeneuve, 2006. "Irreversible investment in alternative projects," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 28(2), pages 425-448, June.
    2. Dangl, Thomas, 1999. "Investment and capacity choice under uncertain demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 415-428, September.
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    6. Dixit, Avinash, 1993. "Choosing among alternative discrete investment projects under uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 265-268.
    7. Henderson, Vicky & Hobson, David G., 2002. "Real options with constant relative risk aversion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 329-355, December.
    8. McDonald, Robert L & Siegel, Daniel R, 1985. "Investment and the Valuation of Firms When There Is an Option to Shut Down," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 331-349, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Erin Baker, 2012. "Option Value and the Diffusion of Energy Efficient Products," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    2. Sendstad, Lars Hegnes & Chronopoulos, Michail, 2017. "Strategic Technology Switching under Risk Aversion and Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 2017/10, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    3. Chronopoulos, Michail & Lumbreras, Sara, 2017. "Optimal regime switching under risk aversion and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(2), pages 543-555.
    4. Wang, Huamao & Yang, Zhaojun & Zhang, Hai, 2015. "Entrepreneurial finance with equity-for-guarantee swap and idiosyncratic risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 241(3), pages 863-871.
    5. repec:eee:ejores:v:270:y:2018:i:2:p:475-486 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Yang, Shu-Jung Sunny & Anderson, Edward James, 2014. "Competition through capacity investment under asymmetric existing capacities and costs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(1), pages 217-230.
    7. Chronopoulos, Michail & De Reyck, Bert & Siddiqui, Afzal, 2014. "Duopolistic competition under risk aversion and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 236(2), pages 643-656.
    8. Qiang Li & Junwei Wang & Jian Ni & Lap Keung Chu & Congdong Li, 0. "The optimal time to make a risky investment under a permanent exit option," Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-12.
    9. Banerjee, Shantanu & Güçbilmez, Ufuk & Pawlina, Grzegorz, 2014. "Optimal exercise of jointly held real options: A Nash bargaining approach with value diversion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 239(2), pages 565-578.
    10. Carol Alexander & Xi Chen, 2018. "Model Risk in Real Option Valuation," Papers 1809.00817, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2018.
    11. repec:eee:ejores:v:270:y:2018:i:1:p:1-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Helena Gaspars-Wieloch, 2014. "Modifications of the Hurwicz’s decision rule," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 22(4), pages 779-794, December.
    13. repec:eee:dyncon:v:83:y:2017:i:c:p:18-33 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Kang, Sang Baum & Létourneau, Pascal, 2016. "Investors’ reaction to the government credibility problem: A real option analysis of emission permit policy risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 96-107.
    15. Helena Gaspars-Wieloch, 2015. "On a decision rule supported by a forecasting stage based on the decision maker’s coefficient of optimism," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 23(3), pages 579-594, September.
    16. Lavrutich, Maria N., 2017. "Capacity choice under uncertainty in a duopoly with endogenous exit," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(3), pages 1033-1053.

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