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Testing Value vs Waiting Value in Environmental Decisions under Uncertainty

  • Giuseppe Attanasi
  • Aldo Montesano

This paper introduces the concept of the Testing Value into the analysis of environmental decisions under uncertainty and irreversibility. This value emerges in situations where the probability of receiving information concerning future economic benefits and costs of development depends on the level of development carried out. We show that when information may be acquired also exogenously, the Testing Value could push a risk-neutral decision maker to preserve more in the present and eventually in the future. The reason is that the Testing Value often leads to a only partial development of the environmental asset; on the contrary, the Waiting Value (a generalization of the quasi-option value à la Arrow and Fisher (1974)) always leads to corner solutions. Althoughits existence stems from endogenous information, surprisingly enough, the Testing Value is positively related to the probability of acquiring information exogenously.

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File URL: http://www2.toulouse.inra.fr/lerna/travaux/cahiers2010/10.01.307.pdf
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Paper provided by LERNA, University of Toulouse in its series LERNA Working Papers with number 10.01.307.

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Date of creation: Jan 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ler:wpaper:10.01.307
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  1. Fisher, Anthony C & Hanemann, W Michael, 1990. " Information and the Dynamics of Environmental Protection: The Concept of the Critical Period," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(3), pages 399-414.
  2. Pindyck, Robert S., 1990. "Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment," Working papers 3137-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  3. Maler, Karl-Goran & Fisher, Anthony, 2006. "Environment, Uncertainty, and Option Values," Handbook of Environmental Economics, in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 13, pages 571-620 Elsevier.
  4. Conrad, Jon M., 2000. "Wilderness: options to preserve, extract, or develop," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 205-219, July.
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  6. Fisher, Anthony C., 2000. "Investment under uncertainty and option value in environmental economics," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 197-204, July.
  7. Epstein, Larry G, 1980. "Decision Making and the Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 269-83, June.
  8. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-12, December.
  9. Pindyck, Robert S., 1998. "Irreversibilities and the timing of environmental policy," Working papers WP 4047-98., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  10. Chichilnisky, Graciela & Beltratti, Andrea & Heal, Geoffrey, 1998. "Uncertain future preferences and conservation," MPRA Paper 7912, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. A. Myrick Freeman III, 1983. "The Sign and Size of Option Value," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 59(4), pages 1-13.
  12. Fisher, Anthony C. & Krutilla, John V., 1974. "Valuing long run ecological consequences and irreversibilities," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 96-108, August.
  13. Francois Salanie & Nicolas Treich, 2009. "Option Value and Flexibility: A General Theorem with Applications," LERNA Working Papers 09.12.288, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
  14. Ulph, Alistair & Ulph, David, 1997. "Global Warming, Irreversibility and Learning," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(442), pages 636-50, May.
  15. Arrow, Kenneth J & Fisher, Anthony C, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 312-19, May.
  16. Demers, Michel, 1991. "Investment under Uncertainty, Irreversibility and the Arrival of Information over Time," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 333-50, April.
  17. Freeman, A. III, 1984. "The quasi-option value of irreversible development," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 292-295, September.
  18. Conrad, Jon M, 1980. "Quasi-Option Value and the Expected Value of Information," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 813-20, June.
  19. Giuseppe Attanasi & Aldo Montesano, 2008. "Competing For Endogenous Information In An Irreversible Environmental Resource Problem: A Game-Theoretic Analysis," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(03), pages 229-243.
  20. Batabyal, Amitrajeet A., 1998. "Land development and preservation over time and under uncertainty: a review and a research agenda," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 233-238, June.
  21. Fisher, Anthony C. & Krutilla, John V., 1985. "Economics of nature preservation," Handbook of Natural Resource and Energy Economics, in: A. V. Kneese† & J. L. Sweeney (ed.), Handbook of Natural Resource and Energy Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 165-189 Elsevier.
  22. Hanemann, W. Michael, 1989. "Information and the concept of option value," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 23-37, January.
  23. Hanemann, W. Michael, 1984. "On Reconciling Different Concepts of Option Value," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt81w7290x, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  24. Miller, Jon R & Lad, Frank, 1984. "Flexibility, learning, and irreversibility in environmental decisions: A bayesian approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 161-172, June.
  25. Fisher, Anthony C. & Hanemann, W. Michael, 1987. "Quasi-option value: Some misconceptions dispelled," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 183-190, June.
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