IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea15/205582.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Disruptive Policy Impacts on Biodiesel Investment: The Third Leg in 3-T Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Shen
  • Colson, Gregory J.
  • Wetzstein, Michael E.

Abstract

The effect of Poisson type policy jumps on biodiesel investment is investigated through the theory of investment under uncertainty. The analysis considers the probability of a policy being implemented if it is not in effect and the probability of it being withdrawn if it is in effect. As an application, the policy switching regime of the discontinuous federal tax credit of $1.00 per gallon on biodiesel is modeled as a Poisson jump process. Results support that time inconsistent government policies do lead to market uncertainty. The analysis reveals a pronounced negative impact on the decisions to invest in a biodiesel refinery. However, results indicate a consistent policy switching regime may not be that disruptive. It is policy uncertainty that drives the option pricing thresholds and a consistent policy switching does not increase the uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Shen & Colson, Gregory J. & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2015. "Disruptive Policy Impacts on Biodiesel Investment: The Third Leg in 3-T Policy," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205582, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea15:205582
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.205582
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/205582/files/Shen%20Liu_AAEA2015_poster.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.205582?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 229-242, October.
    2. Fuss, Sabine & Szolgayova, Jana & Obersteiner, Michael & Gusti, Mykola, 2008. "Investment under market and climate policy uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(8), pages 708-721, August.
    3. Hassett, Kevin A & Metcalf, Gilbert E, 1999. "Investment with Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 372-393, July.
    4. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    5. Lin, Tyrone T. & Huang, Shio-Ling, 2010. "An entry and exit model on the energy-saving investment strategy with real options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 794-802, February.
    6. Yang, Ming & Blyth, William & Bradley, Richard & Bunn, Derek & Clarke, Charlie & Wilson, Tom, 2008. "Evaluating the power investment options with uncertainty in climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1933-1950, July.
    7. Robert S. Pindyck, 1999. "The Long-Run Evolutions of Energy Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-27.
    8. Xian, Hui & Colson, Gregory & Mei, Bin & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2015. "Co-firing coal with wood pellets for U.S. electricity generation: A real options analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 106-116.
    9. Fera, M. & Macchiaroli, R. & Iannone, R. & Miranda, S. & Riemma, S., 2016. "Economic evaluation model for the energy Demand Response," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 457-468.
    10. Janne Kettunen, Derek W. Bunn and William Blyth & Derek W. Bunn & William Blyth, 2011. "Investment Propensities under Carbon Policy Uncertainty," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 77-118.
    11. Ada Wossink & Cornelis Gardebroek, 2006. "Environmental Policy Uncertainty and Marketable Permit Systems: The Dutch Phosphate Quota Program," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(1), pages 16-27.
    12. Lin, Tyrone T. & Huang, Shio-Ling, 2011. "Application of the modified Tobin's q to an uncertain energy-saving project with the real options concept," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 408-420, January.
    13. Pablo Río, 2014. "On evaluating success in complex policy mixes: the case of renewable energy support schemes," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 47(3), pages 267-287, September.
    14. Fera, M. & Iannone, R. & Macchiaroli, R. & Miranda, S. & Schiraldi, M.M., 2014. "Project appraisal for small and medium size wind energy installation: The Italian wind energy policy effects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 621-631.
    15. Partovi, Farzad & Nikzad, Mehdi & Mozafari, Babak & Ranjbar, Ali Mohamad, 2011. "A stochastic security approach to energy and spinning reserve scheduling considering demand response program," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3130-3137.
    16. Wang, Xingwei & Cai, Yanpeng & Dai, Chao, 2014. "Evaluating China's biomass power production investment based on a policy benefit real options model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 751-761.
    17. Pindyck, Robert S., 2002. "Optimal timing problems in environmental economics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1677-1697, August.
    18. Kevin A. Hassett, 1999. "Tax Policy and Investment," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 53049, September.
    19. Naylor, Rosamond L. & Higgins, Matthew M., 2017. "The political economy of biodiesel in an era of low oil prices," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 695-705.
    20. Laurikka, Harri, 2006. "Option value of gasification technology within an emissions trading scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3916-3928, December.
    21. Fuss, Sabine & Johansson, Daniel J.A. & Szolgayova, Jana & Obersteiner, Michael, 2009. "Impact of climate policy uncertainty on the adoption of electricity generating technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 733-743, February.
    22. Hajjari, Masoumeh & Tabatabaei, Meisam & Aghbashlo, Mortaza & Ghanavati, Hossein, 2017. "A review on the prospects of sustainable biodiesel production: A global scenario with an emphasis on waste-oil biodiesel utilization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 445-464.
    23. Živković, Snežana B. & Veljković, Milan V. & Banković-Ilić, Ivana B. & Krstić, Ivan M. & Konstantinović, Sandra S. & Ilić, Slavica B. & Avramović, Jelena M. & Stamenković, Olivera S. & Veljković, Vlad, 2017. "Technological, technical, economic, environmental, social, human health risk, toxicological and policy considerations of biodiesel production and use," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 222-247.
    24. Zhou, Wenji & Zhu, Bing & Fuss, Sabine & Szolgayová, Jana & Obersteiner, Michael & Fei, Weiyang, 2010. "Uncertainty modeling of CCS investment strategy in China's power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(7), pages 2392-2400, July.
    25. Fuss, Sabine & Szolgayová, Jana & Khabarov, Nikolay & Obersteiner, Michael, 2012. "Renewables and climate change mitigation: Irreversible energy investment under uncertainty and portfolio effects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 59-68.
    26. Mauer, David C. & Ott, Steven H., 1995. "Investment under Uncertainty: The Case of Replacement Investment Decisions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(4), pages 581-605, December.
    27. Linnerud, Kristin & Andersson, Ane Marte & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2014. "Investment timing under uncertain renewable energy policy: An empirical study of small hydropower projects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 154-164.
    28. ., 2014. "Residential segregation and people sorting within cities," Chapters, in: Urban Economics and Urban Policy, chapter 3, pages 54-76, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    29. Luke Reedman & Paul Graham & Peter Coombes, 2006. "Using a Real‐Options Approach to Model Technology Adoption Under Carbon Price Uncertainty: An Application to the Australian Electricity Generation Sector," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(s1), pages 64-73, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Garret Kent Fellows & Jennifer Winter & Alaz Munzur, 2023. "An Analysis of Industrial Policy Mechanisms to Support Commercial Deployment of Bitumen Partial Upgrading in Alberta," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-49, March.
    2. Savvas L. Douvartzides & Nikolaos D. Charisiou & Kyriakos N. Papageridis & Maria A. Goula, 2019. "Green Diesel: Biomass Feedstocks, Production Technologies, Catalytic Research, Fuel Properties and Performance in Compression Ignition Internal Combustion Engines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-41, February.
    3. Zetterholm, Jonas & Mossberg, Johanna & Jafri, Yawer & Wetterlund, Elisabeth, 2022. "We need stable, long-term policy support! — Evaluating the economic rationale behind the prevalent investor lament for forest-based biofuel production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 318(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Romano, Teresa & Fumagalli, Elena, 2018. "Greening the power generation sector: Understanding the role of uncertainty," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 272-286.
    2. Linnerud, Kristin & Andersson, Ane Marte & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2014. "Investment timing under uncertain renewable energy policy: An empirical study of small hydropower projects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 154-164.
    3. Boomsma, Trine Krogh & Linnerud, Kristin, 2015. "Market and policy risk under different renewable electricity support schemes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 435-448.
    4. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Linnerud, Kristin & Molnár, Peter & Tandberg Nygaard, Maria, 2016. "Green electricity investment timing in practice: Real options or net present value?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 498-506.
    5. Svensson, Elin & Berntsson, Thore, 2011. "Planning future investments in emerging energy technologies for pulp mills considering different scenarios for their investment cost development," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6508-6519.
    6. Kozlova, Mariia, 2017. "Real option valuation in renewable energy literature: Research focus, trends and design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 180-196.
    7. Tolis, Athanasios I. & Rentizelas, Athanasios A., 2011. "An impact assessment of electricity and emission allowances pricing in optimised expansion planning of power sector portfolios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 3791-3806.
    8. Koch, Nicolas & Reuter, Wolf Heinrich & Fuss, Sabine & Grosjean, Godefroy, 2017. "Permits vs. offsets under investment uncertainty," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 33-47.
    9. Shahnazari, Mahdi & McHugh, Adam & Maybee, Bryan & Whale, Jonathan, 2014. "Evaluation of power investment decisions under uncertain carbon policy: A case study for converting coal fired steam turbine to combined cycle gas turbine plants in Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 271-279.
    10. Mo, Jian-Lei & Schleich, Joachim & Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2015. "Delaying the introduction of emissions trading systems—Implications for power plant investment and operation from a multi-stage decision model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 255-264.
    11. Brauneis, Alexander & Mestel, Roland & Palan, Stefan, 2013. "Inducing low-carbon investment in the electric power industry through a price floor for emissions trading," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 190-204.
    12. Zhang, M.M. & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn & Ding, H., 2019. "Evaluating uncertain investment decisions in low-carbon transition toward renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 1049-1060.
    13. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P. & Chen, H.T., 2017. "Optimal design of subsidy to stimulate renewable energy investments: The case of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 873-883.
    14. Svensson, Elin & Berntsson, Thore, 2014. "The effect of long lead times for planning of energy efficiency and biorefinery technologies at a pulp mill," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 12-16.
    15. Ioannou, Anastasia & Angus, Andrew & Brennan, Feargal, 2017. "Risk-based methods for sustainable energy system planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 602-615.
    16. Loïc Weerdt & Tine Compernolle & Verena Hagspiel & Peter Kort & Carlos Oliveira, 2022. "Stepwise Investment in Circular Plastics Under the Presence of Policy Uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(2), pages 413-443, October.
    17. Haehl, Christian & Spinler, Stefan, 2020. "Technology Choice under Emission Regulation Uncertainty in International Container Shipping," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(1), pages 383-396.
    18. Nagy, Roel L.G. & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M., 2021. "Green capacity investment under subsidy withdrawal risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    19. Hagspiel, Verena & Nunes, Cláudia & Oliveira, Carlos & Portela, Manuel, 2021. "Green investment under time-dependent subsidy retraction risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    20. ShahNazari, Mahdi & McHugh, Adam & Maybee, Bryan & Whale, Jonathan, 2014. "The effect of political cycles on power investment decisions: Expectations over the repeal and reinstatement of carbon policy mechanisms in Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 157-165.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea15:205582. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.