IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v336y2024i1d10.1007_s10479-023-05273-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluating the optimal timing and capacity of investments in flexible combined heat and power generation for energy-intensive industries

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitrios Zormpas

    (University of Crete)

  • Giorgia Oggioni

    (University of Brescia)

Abstract

Substantial R &D efforts are currently directed towards the development of combined heat and power (CHP) systems that automatically and seamlessly connect to the power grid. In this paper we develop a real options model to assess the impact that the operational flexibility characterizing such systems will have on the optimal timing and capacity associated with investments in CHP plants. We take the viewpoint of a manufacturer operating in an energy-intensive industry who contemplates investing in CHP. We discuss and compare investments in two types of CHP systems: a standard one that is operationally rigid and a technologically advanced one that is operationally flexible. The interaction between temporal and operational flexibility under uncertainty and irreversibility is central to our analysis. We show that operational flexibility guarantees earlier investment but has an ambiguous effect in terms of capacity. In particular, when operational flexibility is very valuable the potential investor is opting for investing in a plant with larger productive capacity. The potential investor chooses a smaller CHP unit if otherwise. A numerical exercise calibrated using data from the Italian pulp and paper and electricity industries complements our theoretical analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios Zormpas & Giorgia Oggioni, 2024. "Evaluating the optimal timing and capacity of investments in flexible combined heat and power generation for energy-intensive industries," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 336(1), pages 1133-1160, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:336:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-023-05273-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-023-05273-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-023-05273-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-023-05273-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Di Corato, Luca & Moretto, Michele, 2011. "Investing in biogas: Timing, technological choice and the value of flexibility from input mix," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1186-1193.
    2. Kuno J.M. Huisman & Peter M. Kort, 2015. "Strategic capacity investment under uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(2), pages 376-408, June.
    3. Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Maribu, Karl, 2009. "Investment and upgrade in distributed generation under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 25-37, January.
    4. E. Allevi & L. Boffino & M. E. Giuli & G. Oggioni, 2019. "Analysis of long-term natural gas contracts with vine copulas in optimization portfolio problems," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 274(1), pages 1-37, March.
    5. E. Allevi & A. Gnudi & I. V. Konnov & G. Oggioni, 2018. "Decomposition method for oligopolistic competitive models with common environmental regulation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 268(1), pages 441-467, September.
    6. Andreis, Luisa & Flora, Maria & Fontini, Fulvio & Vargiolu, Tiziano, 2020. "Pricing reliability options under different electricity price regimes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    7. Zwart, Gijsbert, 2021. "Optimal regulation of energy network expansion when costs are stochastic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    8. Di Corato, Luca & Montinari, Natalia, 2014. "Flexible waste management under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 174-185.
    9. De Giovanni, Domenico & Massabò, Ivar, 2018. "Capacity investment under uncertainty: The effect of volume flexibility," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 165-176.
    10. Nagy, Roel L.G. & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M., 2021. "Green capacity investment under subsidy withdrawal risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    11. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    12. Marco Gambini & Michela Vellini & Tommaso Stilo & Michele Manno & Sara Bellocchi, 2019. "High-Efficiency Cogeneration Systems: The Case of the Paper Industry in Italy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-21, January.
    13. Michail Chronopoulos & Afzal Siddiqui, 2015. "When is it better to wait for a new version? Optimal replacement of an emerging technology under uncertainty," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 235(1), pages 177-201, December.
    14. Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Marnay, Chris, 2008. "Distributed generation investment by a microgrid under uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 1729-1737.
    15. Karl Magnus Maribu & Stein-Erik Fleten, 2008. "Combined Heat and Power in Commercial Buildings: Investment and Risk Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 123-150.
    16. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Linnerud, Kristin & Molnár, Peter & Tandberg Nygaard, Maria, 2016. "Green electricity investment timing in practice: Real options or net present value?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 498-506.
    17. Dixit, Avinash & Pindyck, Robert S & Sodal, Sigbjorn, 1999. "A Markup Interpretation of Optimal Investment Rules," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(455), pages 179-189, April.
    18. Ida Bakke & Stein-Erik Fleten & Lars Ivar Hagfors & Verena Hagspiel & Beate Norheim & Sonja Wogrin, 2016. "Investment in electric energy storage under uncertainty: a real options approach," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 483-500, July.
    19. Michele Moretto & Gianpaolo Rossini, 2012. "Flexible Outsourcing[1]," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33, pages 47-59, January.
    20. Bruno Bosco & Lucia Parisio & Matteo Pelagatti & Fabio Baldi, 2010. "Long-run relations in european electricity prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 805-832.
    21. Dangl, Thomas, 1999. "Investment and capacity choice under uncertain demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 415-428, September.
    22. De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 1999. "Cointegration analysis of spot electricity prices: insights on transmission efficiency in the western US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 435-448, October.
    23. Hagspiel, Verena & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2016. "Volume flexibility and capacity investment under demand uncertainty," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 95-108.
    24. Farnaz Farzan & Khashayar Mahani & Kaveh Gharieh & Mohsen Jafari, 2015. "Microgrid investment under uncertainty: a real option approach using closed form contingent analysis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 235(1), pages 259-276, December.
    25. Fontini, Fulvio & Vargiolu, Tiziano & Zormpas, Dimitrios, 2021. "Investing in electricity production under a reliability options scheme," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fontini, Fulvio & Vargiolu, Tiziano & Zormpas, Dimitrios, 2021. "Investing in electricity production under a reliability options scheme," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Bigerna, Simona & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M. & Wen, Xingang, 2023. "How damaging are environmental policy targets in terms of welfare?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 311(1), pages 354-372.
    3. Nagy, Roel L.G. & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M., 2021. "Green capacity investment under subsidy withdrawal risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    4. Zhang, Zixuan & Chronopoulos, Michail & Kyriakou, Ioannis & Dimitrova, Dimitrina S., 2024. "Bi-level optimisation of subsidy and capacity investment under competition and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 318(1), pages 327-340.
    5. Michail Chronopoulos & Verena Hagspiel & Stein-Erik Fleten, 2017. "Stepwise investment and capacity sizing under uncertainty," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 39(2), pages 447-472, March.
    6. Balter, Anne G. & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2022. "Effects of creative destruction on the size and timing of an investment," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    7. Xingang Wen & Peter M. Kort & Dolf Talman, 2017. "Volume flexibility and capacity investment: a real options approach," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 68(12), pages 1633-1646, December.
    8. Michail Chronopoulos, Verena Hagspiel, and Stein-Erik Fleten, 2016. "Stepwise Green Investment under Policy Uncertainty," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    9. Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M. & Nunes, Cláudia & Pimentel, Rita & Støre, Kristian, 2021. "Capacity optimization of an innovating firm," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    10. Balliauw, Matteo & Onghena, Evy, 2020. "Expanding airport capacity of cities under uncertainty: Strategies to mitigate congestion," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Maarten van Oosterhout & Gijsbert Zwart, 2023. "Distortions in Investment Timing and Quantity in Real Options with Asymmetric Information," De Economist, Springer, vol. 171(4), pages 347-365, December.
    12. Tine Compernolle & Kuno J. M. Huisman & Peter M. Kort & Maria Lavrutich & Cláudia Nunes & Jacco J. J. Thijssen, 2021. "Investment Decisions with Two-Factor Uncertainty," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, November.
    13. Simona Bigerna & Xingang Wen & Verena Hagspiel & Peter M. Kort, 2018. "Green Electricity Investments: Environmental Target and the Optimal Subsidy," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 29/2018, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    14. Paxson, Dean & Pereira, Paulo J. & Rodrigues, Artur, 2022. "Investment timing, capacity choice and optimal floors and ceilings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    15. Bertolini, Marina & D'Alpaos, Chiara & Moretto, Michele, 2018. "Do Smart Grids boost investments in domestic PV plants? Evidence from the Italian electricity market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 890-902.
    16. Ketelaars, Martijn & Kort, Peter M., 2022. "Investments in R&D and Production Capacity with Uncertain Breakthrough Time : Private versus Social Incentives," Discussion Paper 2022-010, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    17. Bigerna, Simona & Wen, Xingang & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M., 2019. "Green electricity investments: Environmental target and the optimal subsidy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(2), pages 635-644.
    18. Koussis, Nicos & Silaghi, Florina, 2023. "Revenue-sharing and volume flexibility in the supply chain," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    19. Kazuya Ito & Makoto Tanaka & Ryuta Takashima, 2024. "Strategic investment in power generation and transmission under a feed-in premium scheme: a game theoretic real options analysis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 343(1), pages 349-372, December.
    20. Balliauw, Matteo & Kort, Peter M. & Zhang, Anming, 2019. "Capacity investment decisions of two competing ports under uncertainty: A strategic real options approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 249-264.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Combined heat and power; Optimal investment timing and capacity; Pulp and paper industry; Real options; Energy markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:336:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-023-05273-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.