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Relating R&D and Investment Policies to CCS Market Diffusion Through Two-Factor Learning

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  • Lohwasser, Richard

    () (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))

  • Madlener, Reinhard

    () (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))

Abstract

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies have the potential to play a major role in the stabilization of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. To develop the capture technology from its current early pilot phase towards commercial maturity, significant public and private funding is directed towards R&D projects and pilot power plants. However, we know little about how this funding relates to the economics of CCS power plants and their market diffusion. This paper addresses that question. We initially review past learning effects from both capacity installations and R&D efforts for a similar technology, flue-gas desulfurization, using the concept of two-factor learning, and estimate the learning curve. We apply the obtained learning-by-doing rate of 7.1% and the learning-by-researching rate of 6.6% to CCS in the electricity market model HECTOR, which simulates 19 European countries hourly until 2040, to understand the impact of learning and associated policies on the market diffusion of CCS. Simulation results show that the individual impact of learning is similar for both learning rates, regardless of the CO2 price. We then evaluate the effectiveness of policies subsidizing CCS investment costs (addressing learning-by-doing) and of policies providing R&D grants (addressing learning-by-researching) by relating the policy budget to the realized CCS capacity. We find that policies promoting diffusion through subsidies are, at lower policy cost, about equally effective as policies providing R&D funding. At higher spending levels, diffusion-promoting policies are more effective. Overall, policy effectiveness increases in low CO2 price scenarios, but the CO2 price still remains the key prerequisite for the economic competitiveness of CCS, even with major policy support.

Suggested Citation

  • Lohwasser, Richard & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Relating R&D and Investment Policies to CCS Market Diffusion Through Two-Factor Learning," FCN Working Papers 6/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2010_006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:eee:eneeco:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:453-464 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:renene:v:115:y:2018:i:c:p:1281-1293 is not listed on IDEAS
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    4. Gan, Peck Yean & Li, ZhiDong, 2015. "Quantitative study on long term global solar photovoltaic market," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 88-99.
    5. Lohwasser, Richard & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Relating R&D and investment policies to CCS market diffusion through two-factor learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 439-452.
    6. repec:eee:enepol:v:107:y:2017:i:c:p:532-538 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gregory Nemet & Erin Baker & Bob Barron & Samuel Harms, 2015. "Characterizing the effects of policy instruments on the future costs of carbon capture for coal power plants," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 155-168, November.
    8. Wu, X.D. & Yang, Q. & Chen, G.Q. & Hayat, T. & Alsaedi, A., 2016. "Progress and prospect of CCS in China: Using learning curve to assess the cost-viability of a 2×600MW retrofitted oxyfuel power plant as a case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1274-1285.
    9. Wei, Max & Smith, Sarah J. & Sohn, Michael D., 2017. "Experience curve development and cost reduction disaggregation for fuel cell markets in Japan and the US," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 346-357.
    10. Lohwasser, Richard & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Economics of CCS for coal plants: Impact of investment costs and efficiency on market diffusion in Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 850-863.
    11. Stephan Spiecker & Volker Eickholt, 2013. "The Impact Of Carbon Capture And Storage On A Decarbonized German Power Market," EWL Working Papers 1304, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Oct 2013.
    12. Spiecker, S. & Eickholt, V. & Weber, C., 2014. "The impact of carbon capture and storage on a decarbonized German power market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 166-177.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Policy effectiveness; CCS; two-factor learning; electricity market;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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