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Mills of progress grind slowly? Estimating learning rates for onshore wind energy

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  • Schauf, Magnus
  • Schwenen, Sebastian

Abstract

Estimated learning rates for onshore wind span a large range of about 40 percentage points. We propose a multi-factor experience curve model with a new economies of scale measure and estimate learning rates for onshore wind using country-level data from seven European countries. We find learning by doing rates of 2%–3% and learning by searching rates of 7%–9% in terms of LCOE. When decomposing LCOE, we find no significant learning in installed costs but significant learning in capacity factors. Accounting for improvements in capacity factors and modeling learning by searching can hence be promising for energy models that endogenize technological change. We confirm our results in several robustness checks, and show that depreciation rates of the knowledge stock have large effects on estimated learning rates.

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  • Schauf, Magnus & Schwenen, Sebastian, 2021. "Mills of progress grind slowly? Estimating learning rates for onshore wind energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:104:y:2021:i:c:s0140988321005016
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105642
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    2. Glenk, Gunther & Meier, Rebecca & Reichelstein, Stefan, 2021. "Cost dynamics of clean energy technologies," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-054, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. Schauf, Magnus & Schwenen, Sebastian, 2023. "System price dynamics for battery storage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    4. Mathias Mier & Jacqueline Adelowo & Valeriya Azarova, 2022. "Endogenous Technological Change in Power Markets," ifo Working Paper Series 373, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technological change; Learning curves; Learning by doing; Public R&D; Economies of scale;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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