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The role of technical change in low-carbon transformation and crises in the electricity market: A CGE analysis with R&D investment

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  • Jiang, Hong-Dian
  • Dong, Kangyin
  • Qing, Jing
  • Teng, Qiang

Abstract

The Russia–Ukraine conflict has exacerbated the global energy and electricity crisis. Considering China's carbon neutrality target, predicting the power market's response to the mandate of energy transformation and the impact of the energy crisis is particularly critical. Technical change is essential for the power sector to solve these crises; however, limited studies have systematically evaluated the role of endogenous technical change in low-carbon transformation of the power sector from an economy-wide perspective. Therefore, applying a multi-sector computable general equilibrium model, this study examines the potential trajectory of research and development (R&D)-based endogenous technical change, investigating the impact of different technical changes on China's power sector, the overall socio-economy, and the energy environment. The relevant results are threefold. First, carbon pricing combined with subsidising renewable electricity is an effective way to reduce emissions to achieve low-carbon transformation in the power sector. This approach can cause relatively moderate losses for the macro-economy and households' welfare. It can also significantly improve the renewable share, electrification rate and synergistic abatement effects on sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. Second, shifting R&D inputs from fossil fuel power generation technology to renewable power technologies should be considered to advance the deep decarbonisation of the power sector. This approach can further improve the renewable share and electrification rate and enhance synergistic abatement effects; however, it can also slightly increase the macro-economic loss. Third, to alleviate the negative impacts to the macro-economy, it is advisable to consider increasing the R&D inputs of various sectors extensively, rather than only increasing that in the power sector. This approach can effectively alleviate the negative impacts on the socio-economy while improving the renewable share with the best synergistic abatement effects.

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  • Jiang, Hong-Dian & Dong, Kangyin & Qing, Jing & Teng, Qiang, 2023. "The role of technical change in low-carbon transformation and crises in the electricity market: A CGE analysis with R&D investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:125:y:2023:i:c:s014098832300395x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106897
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    2. Chai, Shanglei & Huo, Wenjing & Li, Qiang & Ji, Qiang & Shi, Xunpeng, 2025. "Effects of carbon tax on energy transition, emissions and economy amid technological progress," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 377(PC).
    3. Deng, Xu & Lv, Tao & Meng, Xiangyun & Li, Cong & Hou, Xiaoran & Xu, Jie & Wang, Yinhao & Liu, Feng, 2024. "Assessing the carbon emission reduction effect of flexibility option for integrating variable renewable energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Jiang, Hong-Dian & Pradhan, Basanta K. & Dong, Kangyin & Yu, Yan-Yan & Liang, Qiao-Mei, 2024. "An economy-wide impacts of multiple mitigation pathways toward carbon neutrality in China: A CGE-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    5. Yin Li & Xu Wang & Qi Qin, 2025. "Comparative Analysis of Carbon Tax and Carbon Market Strategies for Facilitating Carbon Neutrality in China’s Coal-Fired Electricity Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-25, February.
    6. Jianping Gu & Yi Li & Jingke Hong & Lu Wang, 2024. "Carbon emissions cap or energy technology subsidies? Exploring the carbon reduction policy based on a multi-technology sectoral DSGE model," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous technical change; R&D investment; Power sector; Economy-wide impact; Computable general equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • P28 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Natural Resources; Environment
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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