Should We Give Up After Solyndra? Optimal Technology R&D Portfolios under Uncertainty
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Mort Webster & Karen Fisher-Vanden & David Popp & Nidhi Santen, 2017. "Should We Give Up after Solyndra? Optimal Technology R&D Portfolios under Uncertainty," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(S1), pages 123-151.
- Mort Webster & Karen Fisher-Vanden & David Popp & Nidhi Santen, 2015. "Should We Give Up After Solyndra? Optimal Technology R&D Portfolios under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 21396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
References listed on IDEAS
- Baker, Erin & Chon, Haewon & Keisler, Jeffrey, 2009. "Advanced solar R&D: Combining economic analysis with expert elicitations to inform climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(Supplemen), pages 37-49.
- Popp, David & Santen, Nidhi & Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Webster, Mort, 2013.
"Technology variation vs. R&D uncertainty: What matters most for energy patent success?,"
Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 505-533.
- David Popp & Nidhi Santen & Karen Fisher-Vanden & Mort Webster, 2012. "Technology Variation vs. R&D Uncertainty: What Matters Most for Energy Patent Success?," NBER Working Papers 17792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro & Marzio Galeotti & Emanuele Massetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2006. "WITCH. A World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model," Working Papers 2006_46, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Messner, S. & Golodnikov, A. & Gritsevskii, A., 1996. "A stochastic version of the dynamic linear programming model MESSAGE III," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 21(9), pages 775-784.
- Popp, David & Newell, Richard G. & Jaffe, Adam B., 2010.
"Energy, the Environment, and Technological Change,"
Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 873-937,
Elsevier.
- David Popp & Richard G. Newell & Adam B. Jaffe, 2009. "Energy, the Environment, and Technological Change," NBER Working Papers 14832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schankerman, Mark & Pakes, Ariel, 1986.
"Estimates of the Value of Patent Rights in European Countries during the Post-1950 Period,"
Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(384), pages 1052-1076, December.
- Mark Schankerman & Ariel Pakes, 1985. "Estimates of the Value of Patent Rights in European Countries During thePost-1950 Period," NBER Working Papers 1650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tsur, Yacov & Zemel, Amos, 2005. "Scarcity, growth and R&D," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 484-499, May.
- Pizer, William A. & Popp, David, 2008.
"Endogenizing technological change: Matching empirical evidence to modeling needs,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2754-2770, November.
- William A. Pizer & David Popp, 2007. "Endogenizing Technological Change: Matching Empirical Evidence to Modeling Needs," NBER Working Papers 13053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pizer, William A. & Popp, David, 2007. "Endogenizing Technological Change: Matching Empirical Evidence to Modeling Needs," RFF Working Paper Series dp-07-11, Resources for the Future.
- Popp, David C., 2001. "The effect of new technology on energy consumption," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 215-239, July.
- Fischer, Carolyn & Newell, Richard G. & Preonas, Louis, 2013.
"Environmental and Technology Policy Options in the Electricity Sector: Interactions and Outcomes,"
RFF Working Paper Series
dp-13-20, Resources for the Future.
- Carolyn Fischer & Richard G. Newell & Louis Preonas, 2014. "Environmental and Technology Policy Options in the Electricity Sector: Interactions and Outcomes," CESifo Working Paper Series 4757, CESifo.
- Carolyn Fischer & Richard G. Newell & Louis Preonas, 2014. "Environmental and Technology Policy Options in the Electricity Sector: Interactions and Outcomes," Working Papers 2014.67, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Fischer, Carolyn & Newell, Richard G. & Preonas, Louis, 2014. "Environmental and Technology Policy Options in the Electricity Sector: Interactions and Outcomes," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 179002, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
- Daron Acemoglu, 1998.
"Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1055-1089.
- Acemoglu, D., 1997. "Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality," Working papers 97-14, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Acemoglu, Daron, 1997. "Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality," CEPR Discussion Papers 1707, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Daron Acemoglu, 2002.
"Directed Technical Change,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(4), pages 781-809.
- Daron Acemoglu, 2001. "Directed Technical Change," NBER Working Papers 8287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mort Webster & Nidhi Santen & Panos Parpas, 2012. "An approximate dynamic programming framework for modeling global climate policy under decision-dependent uncertainty," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 339-362, August.
- Sue Wing, Ian, 2006. "Representing induced technological change in models for climate policy analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5-6), pages 539-562, November.
- Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro & Marzio Galeotti & Emanuele Massetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2006.
"A World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model,"
The Energy Journal, , vol. 27(2_suppl), pages 13-37, June.
- Valentina Bosetti, Carlo Carraro, Marzio Galeotti, Emanuele Massetti, Massimo Tavoni, 2006. "A World induced Technical Change Hybrid Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 13-38.
- Bosetti, Valentina & Carraro, Carlo & Massetti, Emanuele & Sgobbi, Alessandra & Tavoni, Massimo, 2009. "Optimal energy investment and R&D strategies to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 123-137, May.
- Bosetti, Valentina & Tavoni, Massimo, 2009.
"Uncertain R&D, backstop technology and GHGs stabilization,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(Supplemen), pages 18-26.
- Valentina Bosetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2007. "Uncertain R&D, Backstop Technology and GHGs Stabilization," Working Papers 2007.6, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Bosetti, Valentina & Tavoni, Massimo, 2007. "Uncertain R&D, Backstop Technology and GHGs Stabilization," Climate Change Modelling and Policy Working Papers 12048, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
- Baker, Erin & Solak, Senay, 2011. "Climate change and optimal energy technology R&D policy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 442-454, September.
- Goeschl, Timo & Perino, Grischa, 2009. "On backstops and boomerangs: Environmental R&D under technological uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 800-809, September.
- Popp, David, 2004. "ENTICE: endogenous technological change in the DICE model of global warming," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 742-768, July.
- Baker, Erin & Adu-Bonnah, Kwame, 2008. "Investment in risky R&D programs in the face of climate uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 465-486, March.
- Fischer, Carolyn & Newell, Richard G., 2008.
"Environmental and technology policies for climate mitigation,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 142-162, March.
- Fischer, Carolyn & Newell, Richard, 2004. "Environmental and Technology Policies for Climate Mitigation," RFF Working Paper Series dp-04-05, Resources for the Future.
- Pugh, Graham & Clarke, Leon & Marlay, Robert & Kyle, Page & Wise, Marshall & McJeon, Haewon & Chan, Gabriel, 2011. "Energy R&D portfolio analysis based on climate change mitigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 634-643, July.
- Pakes, Ariel S, 1986.
"Patents as Options: Some Estimates of the Value of Holding European Patent Stocks,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 755-784, July.
- Ariel Pakes, 1984. "Patents as Options: Some Estimates of the Value of Holding European Patent Stocks," NBER Working Papers 1340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hung, N. M. & Quyen, N. V., 1993. "On R&D timing under uncertainty : The case of exhaustible resource substitution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 971-991.
- Romer, Paul M, 1990.
"Endogenous Technological Change,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
- Paul Romer, 1989. "Endogenous Technological Change," NBER Working Papers 3210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul M Romer, 1999. "Endogenous Technological Change," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2135, David K. Levine.
- Loschel, Andreas, 2002.
"Technological change in economic models of environmental policy: a survey,"
Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2-3), pages 105-126, December.
- Löschel, Andreas, 2001. "Technological change in economic models of environmental policy: a survey," ZEW Discussion Papers 01-62, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
- Gillingham, Kenneth & Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2008.
"Modeling endogenous technological change for climate policy analysis,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2734-2753, November.
- Gillingham, Kenneth T. & Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2007. "Modeling Endogenous Technological Change for Climate Policy Analysis," RFF Working Paper Series dp-07-14, Resources for the Future.
- Green, M. A., 2000. "Photovoltaics: technology overview," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(14), pages 989-998, November.
- Popp, David, 2006. "ENTICE-BR: The effects of backstop technology R&D on climate policy models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 188-222, March.
- David Popp, 2002. "Induced Innovation and Energy Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 160-180, March.
- Goulder, Lawrence H. & Mathai, Koshy, 2000. "Optimal CO2 Abatement in the Presence of Induced Technological Change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 1-38, January.
- Buonanno, Paolo & Carraro, Carlo & Galeotti, Marzio, 2003. "Endogenous induced technical change and the costs of Kyoto," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-34, February.
- Gritsevskyi, Andrii & Nakicenovi, Nebojsa, 2000. "Modeling uncertainty of induced technological change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(13), pages 907-921, November.
- Mark Schankerman, 1998. "How Valuable is Patent Protection? Estimates by Technology Field," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(1), pages 77-107, Spring.
- Goulder, Lawrence H. & Schneider, Stephen H., 1999. "Induced technological change and the attractiveness of CO2 abatement policies," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 211-253, August.
- Jean O. Lanjouw & Mark Schankerman, 2004. "Patent Quality and Research Productivity: Measuring Innovation with Multiple Indicators," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 441-465, April.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Way, Rupert & Lafond, François & Lillo, Fabrizio & Panchenko, Valentyn & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2019.
"Wright meets Markowitz: How standard portfolio theory changes when assets are technologies following experience curves,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 211-238.
- Rupert Way & Franc{c}ois Lafond & Fabrizio Lillo & Valentyn Panchenko & J. Doyne Farmer, 2017. "Wright meets Markowitz: How standard portfolio theory changes when assets are technologies following experience curves," Papers 1705.03423, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2018.
- Nidhi R. Santen & Mort D. Webster & David Popp & Ignacio Pérez-Arriaga, 2017. "Inter-temporal R&D and capital investment portfolios for the electricity industrys low carbon future," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
- Christian Corsi & Antonio Prencipe, 2019. "DOES CEO PROMOTE INNOVATION IN SMEs? A COMPARISON BETWEEN INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL CEO," International Journal of Innovation Management (ijim), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 23(05), pages 1-19, June.
- Milford, James & Henrion, Max & Hunter, Chad & Newes, Emily & Hughes, Caroline & Baldwin, Samuel F., 2022. "Energy sector portfolio analysis with uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Gillingham, Kenneth & Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2008.
"Modeling endogenous technological change for climate policy analysis,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2734-2753, November.
- Gillingham, Kenneth T. & Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2007. "Modeling Endogenous Technological Change for Climate Policy Analysis," RFF Working Paper Series dp-07-14, Resources for the Future.
- Popp, David & Newell, Richard G. & Jaffe, Adam B., 2010.
"Energy, the Environment, and Technological Change,"
Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 873-937,
Elsevier.
- David Popp & Richard G. Newell & Adam B. Jaffe, 2009. "Energy, the Environment, and Technological Change," NBER Working Papers 14832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Naqvi, Asjad & Stockhammer, Engelbert, 2018.
"Directed Technological Change in a Post-Keynesian Ecological Macromodel,"
Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 168-188.
- Asjad NAQVI & Engelbert STOCKHAMMER, 2017. "Directed Technological Change in a post-Keynesian Ecological Macromodel," Ecological Economics Papers ieep16, Institute of Ecological Economics.
- Asjad Naqvi & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2017. "Directed technological change in a post-Keynesian ecological macromodel," Working Papers PKWP1714, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
- Naqvi, Syed Ali Asjad & Engelbert, Stockhammer, 2017. "Directed Technological Change in a post-Keynesian Ecological Macromodel," Ecological Economic Papers 16, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
- Popp, David & Santen, Nidhi & Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Webster, Mort, 2013.
"Technology variation vs. R&D uncertainty: What matters most for energy patent success?,"
Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 505-533.
- David Popp & Nidhi Santen & Karen Fisher-Vanden & Mort Webster, 2012. "Technology Variation vs. R&D Uncertainty: What Matters Most for Energy Patent Success?," NBER Working Papers 17792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carraro, Carlo & De Cian, Enrica & Nicita, Lea & Massetti, Emanuele & Verdolini, Elena, 2010. "Environmental Policy and Technical Change: A Survey," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 4(2), pages 163-219, October.
- Nidhi R. Santen & Mort D. Webster & David Popp & Ignacio Pérez-Arriaga, 2017. "Inter-temporal R&D and capital investment portfolios for the electricity industrys low carbon future," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
- Takanobu Kosugi, 2010. "Assessments of ‘Greenhouse Insurance’: A Methodological Review," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 17(4), pages 345-363, December.
- Mare Sarr & Joëlle Noailly, 2017. "Innovation, Diffusion, Growth and the Environment: Taking Stock and Charting New Directions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 66(3), pages 393-407, March.
- Bistline, John E., 2016. "Energy technology R&D portfolio management: Modeling uncertain returns and market diffusion," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1181-1196.
- Baker, Erin & Clarke, Leon & Shittu, Ekundayo, 2008. "Technical change and the marginal cost of abatement," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2799-2816, November.
- Bibas, Ruben & Méjean, Aurélie & Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem, 2015.
"Energy efficiency policies and the timing of action: An assessment of climate mitigation costs,"
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 137-152.
- Ruben Bibas & Aurélie Méjean & Meriem Hamdi-Cherif, 2015. "Energy efficiency policies and the timing of action: An assessment of climate mitigation costs," Post-Print hal-01086071, HAL.
- Baker, Erin & Shittu, Ekundayo, 2008. "Uncertainty and endogenous technical change in climate policy models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2817-2828, November.
- Pizer, William A. & Popp, David, 2008.
"Endogenizing technological change: Matching empirical evidence to modeling needs,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2754-2770, November.
- Pizer, William A. & Popp, David, 2007. "Endogenizing Technological Change: Matching Empirical Evidence to Modeling Needs," RFF Working Paper Series dp-07-11, Resources for the Future.
- William A. Pizer & David Popp, 2007. "Endogenizing Technological Change: Matching Empirical Evidence to Modeling Needs," NBER Working Papers 13053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sue Wing, Ian, 2006. "Representing induced technological change in models for climate policy analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5-6), pages 539-562, November.
- Wei Jin, 2012. "Can Technological Innovation Help China Take on Its Climate Responsibility? A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2012-51, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Jin, Wei, 2015. "Can China harness globalization to reap domestic carbon savings? Modeling international technology diffusion in a multi-region framework," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 64-82.
- Santen, Nidhi R. & Anadon, Laura Diaz, 2016. "Balancing solar PV deployment and RD&D: A comprehensive framework for managing innovation uncertainty in electricity technology investment planning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 560-569.
- Gregory Casey, 2024.
"Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 192-228.
- Casey, Gregory, "undated". "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259959, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Casey, Gregory, 2017. "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," MPRA Paper 76416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gregory P. Casey, 2022. "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," CESifo Working Paper Series 9580, CESifo.
- Gregory Casey, 2019. "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," Department of Economics Working Papers 2019-17, Department of Economics, Williams College.
- Carlo Carraro & Enrica De Cian & Lea Nicita, 2009.
"Modeling Biased Technical Change. Implications For Climate Policy,"
Working Papers
2009_27, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Carraro, Carlo & De Cian, Enrica & Nicita, Lea, 2010. "Modeling Biased Technical Change. Implications for Climate Policy," Sustainable Development Papers 59376, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
- Enrica De Cian & Carlo Carraro & Lea Nicita, 2010. "Modeling Biased Technical Change. Implications for Climate Policy," Working Papers 2010.4, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Shiell, Leslie & Lyssenko, Nikita, 2014.
"Climate policy and induced R&D: How great is the effect?,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 279-294.
- Leslie SHIELL & Nikita LYSSENKO, 2009. "Climate Policy and Induced R&D: How Great is the Effect?," EcoMod2009 21500084, EcoMod.
- Nikita Lyssenko & Leslie Shiell, 2014. "Climate Policy and Induced R&D: How Great is the Effect?," Working Papers E1405E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
More about this item
Keywords
innovation; climate change; solar energy; wind energy;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
- Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
- Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
- Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5448. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.