IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v79y2015icp80-89.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scenario analysis for estimating the learning rate of photovoltaic power generation based on learning curve theory in South Korea

Author

Listed:
  • Hong, Sungjun
  • Chung, Yanghon
  • Woo, Chungwon

Abstract

South Korea, as the 9th largest energy consuming in 2013 and the 7th largest greenhouse gas emitting country in 2011, established ‘Low Carbon Green Growth’ as the national vision in 2008, and is announcing various active energy policies that are set to gain the attention of the world. In this paper, we estimated the decrease of photovoltaic power generation cost in Korea based on the learning curve theory. Photovoltaic energy is one of the leading renewable energy sources, and countries all over the world are currently expanding R&D, demonstration and deployment of photovoltaic technology. In order to estimate the learning rate of photovoltaic energy in Korea, both conventional 1FLC (one-factor learning curve), which considers only the cumulative power generation, and 2FLC, which also considers R&D investment were applied. The 1FLC analysis showed that the cost of power generation decreased by 3.1% as the cumulative power generation doubled. The 2FCL analysis presented that the cost decreases by 2.33% every time the cumulative photovoltaic power generation is doubled and by 5.13% every time R&D investment is doubled. Moreover, the effect of R&D investment on photovoltaic technology took after around 3 years, and the depreciation rate of R&D investment was around 20%.

Suggested Citation

  • Hong, Sungjun & Chung, Yanghon & Woo, Chungwon, 2015. "Scenario analysis for estimating the learning rate of photovoltaic power generation based on learning curve theory in South Korea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 80-89.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:79:y:2015:i:c:p:80-89
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2014.10.050
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544214012006
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2014.10.050?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Joskow & Nancy L. Rose, 1985. "The Effects of Technological Change, Experience, and Environmental Regulation on the Construction Cost of Coal-Burning Generating Units," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, Spring.
    2. Kim, Dong Wook & Chang, Hyun Joon, 2012. "Experience curve analysis on South Korean nuclear technology and comparative analysis with South Korean renewable technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 361-373.
    3. Kahouli-Brahmi, Sondes, 2008. "Technological learning in energy-environment-economy modelling: A survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 138-162, January.
    4. Sharp, John A. & Price, David H. R., 1990. "Experience curve models in the electricity supply industry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 531-540, December.
    5. Tooraj Jamasb, 2007. "Technical Change Theory and Learning Curves: Patterns of Progress in Electricity Generation Technologies," The Energy Journal, , vol. 28(3), pages 51-72, July.
    6. Ibenholt, Karin, 2002. "Explaining learning curves for wind power," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(13), pages 1181-1189, October.
    7. Loiter, Jeffrey M. & Norberg-Bohm, Vicki, 1999. "Technology policy and renewable energy: public roles in the development of new energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 85-97, February.
    8. van der Zwaan, Bob & Rabl, Ari, 2004. "The learning potential of photovoltaics: implications for energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(13), pages 1545-1554, September.
    9. Arnoldo C. Hax & Nicolas S. Majluf, 1982. "Competitive Cost Dynamics: The Experience Curve," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 12(5), pages 50-61, October.
    10. Nemet, Gregory F., 2006. "Beyond the learning curve: factors influencing cost reductions in photovoltaics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3218-3232, November.
    11. Goldemberg, Jose, 1996. "The evolution of ethanol costs in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1127-1128, December.
    12. Neij, Lena, 2008. "Cost development of future technologies for power generation--A study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 2200-2211, June.
    13. Cohen, Wesley M & Levinthal, Daniel A, 1989. "Innovation and Learning: The Two Faces of R&D," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 569-596, September.
    14. Rout, Ullash K. & Blesl, Markus & Fahl, Ulrich & Remme, Uwe & Voß, Alfred, 2009. "Uncertainty in the learning rates of energy technologies: An experiment in a global multi-regional energy system model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4927-4942, November.
    15. Kobos, Peter H. & Erickson, Jon D. & Drennen, Thomas E., 2006. "Technological learning and renewable energy costs: implications for US renewable energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(13), pages 1645-1658, September.
    16. Yeh, Sonia & Rubin, Edward S., 2007. "A centurial history of technological change and learning curves or pulverized coal-fired utility boilers," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt1f25b3xq, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    17. Junginger, M. & Faaij, A. & Turkenburg, W. C., 2005. "Global experience curves for wind farms," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 133-150, January.
    18. Berglund, Christer & Soderholm, Patrik, 2006. "Modeling technical change in energy system analysis: analyzing the introduction of learning-by-doing in bottom-up energy models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 1344-1356, August.
    19. Ferioli, F. & Schoots, K. & van der Zwaan, B.C.C., 2009. "Use and limitations of learning curves for energy technology policy: A component-learning hypothesis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2525-2535, July.
    20. Avril, S. & Mansilla, C. & Busson, M. & Lemaire, T., 2012. "Photovoltaic energy policy: Financial estimation and performance comparison of the public support in five representative countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 244-258.
    21. K. J. Arrow, 1971. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 11, pages 131-149, Palgrave Macmillan.
    22. Papineau, Maya, 2006. "An economic perspective on experience curves and dynamic economies in renewable energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 422-432, March.
    23. Tooraj Jamasb, 2006. "Technical Change Theory and Learning Curves: Patterns of Progress in Energy Technologies," Working Papers EPRG 0608, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    24. Nikolaos Kouvaritakis & Antonio Soria & Stephane Isoard, 2000. "Modelling energy technology dynamics: methodology for adaptive expectations models with learning by doing and learning by searching," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 14(1/2/3/4), pages 104-115.
    25. Junginger, Martin & de Visser, Erika & Hjort-Gregersen, Kurt & Koornneef, Joris & Raven, Rob & Faaij, Andre & Turkenburg, Wim, 2006. "Technological learning in bioenergy systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 4024-4041, December.
    26. Klaassen, Ger & Miketa, Asami & Larsen, Katarina & Sundqvist, Thomas, 2005. "The impact of R&D on innovation for wind energy in Denmark, Germany and the United Kingdom," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2-3), pages 227-240, August.
    27. Fioretti, Guido, 2007. "The organizational learning curve," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 177(3), pages 1375-1384, March.
    28. Grubler, Arnulf & Messner, Sabine, 1998. "Technological change and the timing of mitigation measures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5-6), pages 495-512, December.
    29. Miketa, Asami & Schrattenholzer, Leo, 2004. "Experiments with a methodology to model the role of R&D expenditures in energy technology learning processes; first results," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(15), pages 1679-1692, October.
    30. Patrik Söderholm & Ger Klaassen, 2007. "Wind Power in Europe: A Simultaneous Innovation–Diffusion Model," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 36(2), pages 163-190, February.
    31. Yeh, Sonia & Rubin, Edward S, 2007. "A centurial history of technological change and learning curves or pulverized coal-fired utility boilers," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt3zz2w2wr, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    32. Yeh, Sonia & Rubin, Edward S., 2007. "A centurial history of technological change and learning curves or pulverized coal-fired utility boilers," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt96z5s545, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    33. Neij, Lena, 1997. "Use of experience curves to analyse the prospects for diffusion and adoption of renewable energy technology," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(13), pages 1099-1107, November.
    34. Li, Sheng & Zhang, Xiaosong & Gao, Lin & Jin, Hongguang, 2012. "Learning rates and future cost curves for fossil fuel energy systems with CO2 capture: Methodology and case studies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 348-356.
    35. Coulomb, L. & Neuhoff, K., 2006. "Learning curves and changing product attributes: the case of wind turbines," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0618, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    36. Yeh, Sonia & Rubin, Edward, 2007. "A centurial history of technological change and learning curves or pulverized coal-fired utility boilers," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt4xn4w7rn, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    37. Loschel, Andreas, 2002. "Technological change in economic models of environmental policy: a survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2-3), pages 105-126, December.
    38. Söderholm, Patrik & Sundqvist, Thomas, 2007. "Empirical challenges in the use of learning curves for assessing the economic prospects of renewable energy technologies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(15), pages 2559-2578.
    39. Qiu, Yueming & Anadon, Laura D., 2012. "The price of wind power in China during its expansion: Technology adoption, learning-by-doing, economies of scale, and manufacturing localization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 772-785.
    40. Yeh, Sonia & Rubin, Edward S., 2007. "A centurial history of technological change and learning curves for pulverized coal-fired utility boilers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 1996-2005.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rubin, Edward S. & Azevedo, Inês M.L. & Jaramillo, Paulina & Yeh, Sonia, 2015. "A review of learning rates for electricity supply technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 198-218.
    2. Samadi, Sascha, 2018. "The experience curve theory and its application in the field of electricity generation technologies – A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2346-2364.
    3. Bossink, Bart, 2020. "Learning strategies in sustainable energy demonstration projects: What organizations learn from sustainable energy demonstrations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    4. Sascha Samadi, 2016. "A Review of Factors Influencing the Cost Development of Electricity Generation Technologies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-25, November.
    5. Kahouli-Brahmi, Sondes, 2008. "Technological learning in energy-environment-economy modelling: A survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 138-162, January.
    6. Yeh, Sonia & Rubin, Edward S., 2012. "A review of uncertainties in technology experience curves," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 762-771.
    7. Lindman, Åsa & Söderholm, Patrik, 2012. "Wind power learning rates: A conceptual review and meta-analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 754-761.
    8. Elia, A. & Kamidelivand, M. & Rogan, F. & Ó Gallachóir, B., 2021. "Impacts of innovation on renewable energy technology cost reductions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    9. Kahouli, Sondès, 2011. "Effects of technological learning and uranium price on nuclear cost: Preliminary insights from a multiple factors learning curve and uranium market modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 840-852, September.
    10. Choi, Donghyun & Kim, Yeong Jae, 2023. "Local and global experience curves for lumpy and granular energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    11. Kahouli-Brahmi, Sondes, 2009. "Testing for the presence of some features of increasing returns to adoption factors in energy system dynamics: An analysis via the learning curve approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 1195-1212, February.
    12. Gan, Peck Yean & Li, ZhiDong, 2015. "Quantitative study on long term global solar photovoltaic market," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 88-99.
    13. Wu, X.D. & Yang, Q. & Chen, G.Q. & Hayat, T. & Alsaedi, A., 2016. "Progress and prospect of CCS in China: Using learning curve to assess the cost-viability of a 2×600MW retrofitted oxyfuel power plant as a case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1274-1285.
    14. Reinhard Haas & Marlene Sayer & Amela Ajanovic & Hans Auer, 2023. "Technological learning: Lessons learned on energy technologies," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), March.
    15. Karali, Nihan & Park, Won Young & McNeil, Michael, 2017. "Modeling technological change and its impact on energy savings in the U.S. iron and steel sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 447-458.
    16. Castrejon-Campos, Omar & Aye, Lu & Hui, Felix Kin Peng, 2022. "Effects of learning curve models on onshore wind and solar PV cost developments in the USA," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    17. Yu, C.F. & van Sark, W.G.J.H.M. & Alsema, E.A., 2011. "Unraveling the photovoltaic technology learning curve by incorporation of input price changes and scale effects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 324-337, January.
    18. Santhakumar, Srinivasan & Meerman, Hans & Faaij, André, 2021. "Improving the analytical framework for quantifying technological progress in energy technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    19. Yu, Yang & Li, Hong & Che, Yuyuan & Zheng, Qiongjie, 2017. "The price evolution of wind turbines in China: A study based on the modified multi-factor learning curve," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 522-536.
    20. Qiu, Yueming & Anadon, Laura D., 2012. "The price of wind power in China during its expansion: Technology adoption, learning-by-doing, economies of scale, and manufacturing localization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 772-785.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:79:y:2015:i:c:p:80-89. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.