Empirical challenges in the use of learning curves for assessing the economic prospects of renewable energy technologies
In bottom-up energy models endogenous technical change is introduced by implementing technology learning rates, which specify the quantitative relationship between the cumulative experiences of the technology on the one hand and cost reductions on the other. The main purpose of this paper is to critically analyze the choice of modeling and estimation strategies in learning curve analyses of power generation costs. We identify and discuss a number of theoretical and econometric issues involved in the estimation of learning curves. These include the presence of omitted variable bias and simultaneity, but also methodological problems related to the operationalization of theoretical concepts (i.e., learning-by-doing) and the associated use of data. We illustrate the importance of these issues by employing panel data for wind power installations in four western European countries, which are used to compare the results from different learning curve model specifications. The results illustrate that the estimates of learning rates may differ significantly across different model specifications and econometric approaches. The paper ends by outlining a number of recommendations for energy model analysts, who need to select appropriate energy technology learning rates from the empirical literature, or who choose to perform the empirical work themselves.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 32 (2007)
Issue (Month): 15 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Colpier, Ulrika Claeson & Cornland, Deborah, 2002. "The economics of the combined cycle gas turbine--an experience curve analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 309-316, March.
- Stoker, Thomas M. & Berndt, Ernst R. & Denny Ellerman, A. & Schennach, Susanne M., 2005. "Panel data analysis of U.S. coal productivity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 131-164, August.
- Burtraw, Dallas & Palmer, Karen & Darmstadter, Joel & McVeigh, James, 1999. "Winner, Loser, or Innocent Victim? Has Renewable Energy Performed As Expected?," Discussion Papers dp-99-28, Resources For the Future.
- Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2004.
"Cost-effective environmental policy: implications of induced technological change,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,
Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 1099-1121, November.
- Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2002. "Cost-effective environmental policy: Implications of induced technological change," Discussion Papers 314, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
- Ibenholt, Karin, 2002. "Explaining learning curves for wind power," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(13), pages 1181-1189, October.
- Nikolaos Kouvaritakis & Antonio Soria & Stephane Isoard & Claude Thonet, 2000. "Endogenous learning in world post-Kyoto scenarios: application of the POLES model under adaptive expectations," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 14(1/2/3/4), pages 222-248.
- Rasmussen, Tobias N., 2001. "CO2 abatement policy with learning-by-doing in renewable energy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 297-325, October.
- Jørgen Hansen & Camilla Jensen & Erik Madsen, 2003. "The establishment of the danish windmill industry—Was it worthwhile?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 139(2), pages 324-347, June.
- Jørgen Drud Hansen & Camilla Jensen & Erik Strøjer Madsen, 2002. "The Establishment of the Danish Windmill Industry - Was it Worthwhile?," CIE Discussion Papers 2002-07, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Industrial Economics.
- Neij, L, 1999. "Cost dynamics of wind power," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 375-389.
- Berglund, Christer & Soderholm, Patrik, 2006. "Modeling technical change in energy system analysis: analyzing the introduction of learning-by-doing in bottom-up energy models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 1344-1356, August.
- Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
- Hausman, Jerry A, 1978. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1251-1271, November.
- J. A. Hausman, 1976. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Working papers 185, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Isoard, Stephane & Soria, Antonio, 2001. "Technical change dynamics: evidence from the emerging renewable energy technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 619-636, November.
- Klaassen, Ger & Miketa, Asami & Larsen, Katarina & Sundqvist, Thomas, 2005. "The impact of R&D on innovation for wind energy in Denmark, Germany and the United Kingdom," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2-3), pages 227-240, August.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- Gritsevskyi, Andrii & Nakicenovi, Nebojsa, 2000. "Modeling uncertainty of induced technological change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(13), pages 907-921, November.
- Patrik Söderholm & Ger Klaassen, 2007. "Wind Power in Europe: A Simultaneous Innovation–Diffusion Model," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 36(2), pages 163-190, February.
- Sabine Messner, 1997. "Endogenized technological learning in an energy systems model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 291-313. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:32:y:2007:i:15:p:2559-2578. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.