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Simulation of the European Electricity Market and CCS Development with the HECTOR Model

Author

Listed:
  • Lohwasser, Richard

    (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))

  • Madlener, Reinhard

    (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))

Abstract

In this paper we introduce HECTOR, a new and advanced long-term electricity market model that simulates market behavior bottom-up through opportunistic, variable cost-based bidding of individual power plants into auction-based national markets with international interconnection capacities. Unlike most other approaches, we implement the objective function on an hourly level. This allows for a reduction of the solution space, and enables a higher modeling resolution, including opportunistic bidding behavior of power plants based on expected supply scarcity, and ex-post investment decisions based on NPV considerations. The model simulates the electricity markets of 19 European countries, with over 400 groups of power plants, and is able to closely approximate historic electricity prices. The average base load price computed by the model for 2006-2008 and across the largest regions in Europe is 54.5 €/MWh, compared to 54.8 €/MWh in reality, using 2005 as training period. In a projection until 2040, we find that conventional fossil fuel-fired power plants are replaced both by renewable energy technologies and large quantities of CCS, the latter of which almost fully utilize available CO2 storage capacities in some of the regions studied.

Suggested Citation

  • Lohwasser, Richard & Madlener, Reinhard, 2009. "Simulation of the European Electricity Market and CCS Development with the HECTOR Model," FCN Working Papers 6/2009, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2009_006
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dergiades, Theologos & Madlener, Reinhard & Christofidou, Georgia, 2018. "The nexus between natural gas spot and futures prices at NYMEX: Do weather shocks and non-linear causality in low frequencies matter?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Lohwasser, Richard & Madlener, Reinhard, 2009. "Impact of CCS on the Economics of Coal-Fired Power Plants: Why Investment Costs Do and Efficiency Doesn’t Matter," FCN Working Papers 7/2009, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    3. Bernstein, Ronald & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Responsiveness of Residential Electricity Demand in OECD Countries: A Panel Cointegation and Causality Analysis," FCN Working Papers 8/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    4. Pattupara, Rajesh & Kannan, Ramachandran, 2016. "Alternative low-carbon electricity pathways in Switzerland and it’s neighbouring countries under a nuclear phase-out scenario," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 152-168.
    5. Michelsen, Carl Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Homeowners' Preferences for Adopting Residential Heating Systems: A Discrete Choice Analysis for Germany," FCN Working Papers 9/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    6. Sheykhha, Siamak & Borggrefe, Frieder & Madlener, Reinhard, 2022. "Policy implications of spatially differentiated renewable energy promotion: A multi-level scenario analysis of onshore wind auctioning in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    7. Lohwasser, Richard & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Relating R&D and investment policies to CCS market diffusion through two-factor learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 439-452.
    8. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Challenges in the Evaluation of Ultra-Long-Lived Projects: Risk Premia for Projects with Eternal Returns or Costs," FCN Working Papers 13/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    9. Harmsen - van Hout, Marjolein & Ghosh, Gaurav & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "The Impact of Green Framing on Consumers’ Valuations of Energy-Saving Measures," FCN Working Papers 7/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    10. Shyekhha, Siamak & Borggrefe, Frieder & Madlener, Reinhard, 2019. "A Counterfactual Analysis of Regional Renewable Energy Auctions Taking the Spatial Dimension into Account," FCN Working Papers 22/2019, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    11. Savvidis, Georgios & Siala, Kais & Weissbart, Christoph & Schmidt, Lukas & Borggrefe, Frieder & Kumar, Subhash & Pittel, Karen & Madlener, Reinhard & Hufendiek, Kai, 2019. "The gap between energy policy challenges and model capabilities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 503-520.
    12. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Multi-Commodity Real Options Analysis of Power Plant Investments: Discounting Endogenous Risk Structures," FCN Working Papers 22/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    13. Lohwasser, Richard & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Economics of CCS for coal plants: Impact of investment costs and efficiency on market diffusion in Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 850-863.
    14. Harmsen - van Hout, Marjolein & Ghosh, Gaurav & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "An Evaluation of Attribute Anchoring Bias in a Choice Experimental Setting," FCN Working Papers 6/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    15. Kraas, Birk & Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion & Pulvermüller, Benedikt & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Economic Assessment of a Concentrating Solar Power Forecasting System for Participation in the Spanish Electricity Market," FCN Working Papers 12/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity market; simulation; model; forecast; CCS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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