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Efficient Investment Portfolios for the Swiss Electricity Supply Sector

Author

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  • Madlener, Reinhard

    () (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))

  • Wenk, Christioph

    () (Swiss Banking Institute, University of Zurich)

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate existing and possible future power generation capacities in Switzerland from a risk-return perspective, using the Mean-Variance Portfolio Theory of Markowitz (1952). The study covers power generation technologies currently in operation, such as nuclear power, storage hydro power and run-of-river hydro power plants, and two new renewable energy technologies (photovoltaics and wind). Additionally, natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) technology, a possible extension to the current Swiss portfolio, is assessed. The technology-specific risks considered include electricity spot market price, production capacity and reliability, fuel cost, funding liabilities, and operation and maintenance outlays. These factors are implemented in a Net Present Value (NPV) model and Monte Carlo simulations are applied to assess each investment alternative. The lifetime-adjusted average return, together with the return-specific variance, forms the basis for the portfolio optimization conducted in the second stage of the analysis. The minimum variance (or maximum return) optimization is performed separately for base-load and peak-load technology portfolios. By defining different scenarios for the upper and lower bound for each technology's share, we simulate different situations, enabling us both, to explain the risk-return profile of the current technology mix, and to make predictions for future portfolios. Our NPV calculations are in line with currently observed returns and, by imposing some reasonable restrictions, the model performs sufficiently well in terms of explaining past portfolio compositions. Moreover, our predicted optimal outcome matches quite nicely with the debated options for enlarging power production in Switzerland.

Suggested Citation

  • Madlener, Reinhard & Wenk, Christioph, 2008. "Efficient Investment Portfolios for the Swiss Electricity Supply Sector," FCN Working Papers 2/2008, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2008_002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bar-Lev, Dan & Katz, Steven, 1976. "A Portfolio Approach to Fossil Fuel Procurement in the Electric Utility Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(3), pages 933-947, June.
    2. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    3. Shimon Awerbuch, 2006. "Portfolio-Based Electricity Generation Planning: Policy Implications For Renewables And Energy Security," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 693-710, May.
    4. Mas-Colell, Andreu & Whinston, Michael D. & Green, Jerry R., 1995. "Microeconomic Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195102680.
    5. Boris Krey & Peter Zweifel, 2006. "Efficient Electricity Portfolios for Switzerland and the United States," SOI - Working Papers 0602, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
    6. Roques, Fabien A. & Newbery, David M. & Nuttall, William J., 2008. "Fuel mix diversification incentives in liberalized electricity markets: A Mean-Variance Portfolio theory approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1831-1849, July.
    7. Roques, F.A. & Nuttall, W.J. & Newbery, D.M., 2006. "Using Probabilistic Analysis to Value Power Generation Investments Under Uncertainty," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0650, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "The benefit of regional diversification of cogeneration investments in Europe: A mean-variance portfolio analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7911-7920, December.
    2. repec:eee:rensus:v:81:y:2018:i:p1:p:192-204 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Dergiades, Theologos & Madlener, Reinhard & Christofidou, Georgia, 2012. "The Nexus between Natural Gas Spot and Futures Prices at NYMEX: Do Weather Shocks and Non-Linear Causality in Low Frequencies Matter?," FCN Working Papers 17/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Sep 2013.
    4. Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & MacGill, Iain F., 2013. "Assessing the value of wind generation in future carbon constrained electricity industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 400-412.
    5. Glensk, Barbara & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Dynamic Portfolio Selection Methods for Power Generation Assets," FCN Working Papers 16/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    6. Bernstein, Ronald & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Responsiveness of Residential Electricity Demand in OECD Countries: A Panel Cointegation and Causality Analysis," FCN Working Papers 8/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    7. Michelsen, Carl Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Homeowners' Preferences for Adopting Residential Heating Systems: A Discrete Choice Analysis for Germany," FCN Working Papers 9/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    8. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Challenges in the Evaluation of Ultra-Long-Lived Projects: Risk Premia for Projects with Eternal Returns or Costs," FCN Working Papers 13/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    9. Harmsen - van Hout, Marjolein & Ghosh, Gaurav & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "The Impact of Green Framing on Consumers’ Valuations of Energy-Saving Measures," FCN Working Papers 7/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    10. Georg Erber & Reinhard Madlener, 2009. "Impact of ICT and Human Skills on the European Financial Intermediation Sector," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
    11. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Multi-Commodity Real Options Analysis of Power Plant Investments: Discounting Endogenous Risk Structures," FCN Working Papers 22/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    12. Harmsen - van Hout, Marjolein & Ghosh, Gaurav & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "An Evaluation of Attribute Anchoring Bias in a Choice Experimental Setting," FCN Working Papers 6/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    13. Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & MacGill, Iain F., 2012. "A Monte Carlo based decision-support tool for assessing generation portfolios in future carbon constrained electricity industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 374-392.
    14. Omann, Ines & Kowalski, Katharina & Bohunovsky, Lisa & Madlener, Reinhard & Stagl, Sigrid, 2008. "The Influence of Social Preferences on Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Energy Scenarios," FCN Working Papers 3/2008, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    15. Kraas, Birk & Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion & Pulvermüller, Benedikt & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Economic Assessment of a Concentrating Solar Power Forecasting System for Participation in the Spanish Electricity Market," FCN Working Papers 12/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    16. repec:eee:rensus:v:82:y:2018:i:p3:p:3808-3823 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Lang, Joachim & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Portfolio Optimization for Power Plants: The Impact of Credit Risk Mitigation and Margining," FCN Working Papers 11/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    18. Daniel Ziegler & Katrin Schmitz & Christoph Weber, 2012. "Optimal electricity generation portfolios," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 381-399, August.
    19. Barbara Glensk & Reinhard Madlener, 2013. "Multi-period portfolio optimization of power generation assets," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Technology, Institute of Organization and Management, vol. 4, pages 20-38.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Portfolio optimization; Peak load demand; Electricity supply; Switzerland;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources

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