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Using Probabilistic Analysis to Value Power Generation Investments Under Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Roques, F.A.
  • Nuttall, W.J.
  • Newbery, D.M.

Abstract

This paper reviews the limits of the traditional ‘levelised cost’ approach to properly take into account risks and uncertainties when valuing different power generation technologies. We introduce a probabilistic valuation model of investment in three base-load technologies (combined cycle gas turbine, coal plant, and nuclear power plant), and demonstrate using three case studies how such a probabilistic approach provides investors with a much richer analytical framework to assess power investments in liberalised markets. We successively analyse the combined impact of multiple uncertainties on the value of alternative technologies, the value of the operating flexibility of power plant managers to mothball and de-mothball plants, and the value of mixed portfolios of different production technologies that present complementary risk-return profiles.

Suggested Citation

  • Roques, F.A. & Nuttall, W.J. & Newbery, D.M., 2006. "Using Probabilistic Analysis to Value Power Generation Investments Under Uncertainty," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0650, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0650
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    File URL: http://www.electricitypolicy.org.uk/pubs/wp/eprg0625.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lisandro Abrego & Carlo Perroni, 2002. "Investment subsidies and Time-Consistent Environmental Policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 54(4), pages 617-635, October.
    2. Marsiliani, Laura & Renstrom, Thomas I, 2000. "Time Inconsistency in Environmental Policy: Tax Earmarking as a Commitment Solution," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 123-138, March.
    3. Warwick J. McKibbin & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 2002. "The Role of Economics in Climate Change Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 107-129, Spring.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Muñoz, José Ignacio & Sánchez de la Nieta, Agustín A. & Contreras, Javier & Bernal-Agustín, José L., 2009. "Optimal investment portfolio in renewable energy: The Spanish case," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5273-5284, December.
    2. Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & MacGill, Iain F., 2013. "Assessing the value of wind generation in future carbon constrained electricity industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 400-412.
    3. Jamasb, Tooraj & Nuttall, William J. & Pollitt, Michael, 2008. "The case for a new energy research, development and promotion policy for the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 4610-4614, December.
    4. Santos, Lúcia & Soares, Isabel & Mendes, Carla & Ferreira, Paula, 2014. "Real Options versus Traditional Methods to assess Renewable Energy Projects," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 588-594.
    5. Chignell, Simon & Gross, Robert J.K., 2013. "Not locked-in? The overlooked impact of new gas-fired generation investment on long-term decarbonisation in the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 699-705.
    6. Thiam, Djiby-Racine, 2010. "Renewable decentralized in developing countries: Appraisal from microgrids project in Senegal," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1615-1623.
    7. Roques, Fabien A., 2008. "Technology choices for new entrants in liberalized markets: The value of operating flexibility and contractual arrangements," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 245-253, December.
    8. Madlener, Reinhard & Wenk, Christioph, 2008. "Efficient Investment Portfolios for the Swiss Electricity Supply Sector," FCN Working Papers 2/2008, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    9. Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & Riesz, Jenny & MacGill, Iain F., 2015. "Using renewables to hedge against future electricity industry uncertainties—An Australian case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 43-56.
    10. Brouwer, Anne Sjoerd & van den Broek, Machteld & Özdemir, Özge & Koutstaal, Paul & Faaij, André, 2016. "Business case uncertainty of power plants in future energy systems with wind power," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 237-256.
    11. Locatelli, Giorgio & Mancini, Mauro, 2010. "Small-medium sized nuclear coal and gas power plant: A probabilistic analysis of their financial performances and influence of CO2 cost," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6360-6374, October.
    12. Sunderkötter, Malte & Weber, Christoph, 2012. "Valuing fuel diversification in power generation capacity planning," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1664-1674.
    13. Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & MacGill, Iain F., 2012. "A Monte Carlo based decision-support tool for assessing generation portfolios in future carbon constrained electricity industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 374-392.
    14. Daniel Ziegler & Katrin Schmitz & Christoph Weber, 2012. "Optimal electricity generation portfolios," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 381-399, August.
    15. Geissmann, Thomas, 2017. "A probabilistic approach to the computation of the levelized cost of electricity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 372-381.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment; uncertainty; Monte-Carlo simulation; operating flexibility;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

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