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Small-medium sized nuclear coal and gas power plant: A probabilistic analysis of their financial performances and influence of CO2 cost

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  • Locatelli, Giorgio
  • Mancini, Mauro

Abstract

Nations or regions with limited electrical grid and restricted financial resources are a suitable market for small medium power plants with a size of 300-400Â MWe. The literature presents several comparisons about the economics of large power plants (of about 1000Â MWe); however there are not probabilistic analysis regarding the economics of small medium power plants. This paper fills this gap comparing, with a Monte Carlo evaluation, the economical and financial performances of a nuclear reactor, a coal fired power plant and a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) of 335Â MWe. The paper aims also to investigate the effect of the carbon tax and electrical energy price on the economics of these plants. The analysis show as, without any carbon tax, the coal plant has the lowest levelised unit electricity cost (LUEC) and the highest net present value (NPV). Introducing the carbon tax the rank changes: depending on its amount the first and the nuclear after becomes the plant with lower LUEC and highest NPV. Therefore, the uncertainty in the carbon tax cost increases the risk of investing in a coal plant above the level of the new small medium reactor.

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  • Locatelli, Giorgio & Mancini, Mauro, 2010. "Small-medium sized nuclear coal and gas power plant: A probabilistic analysis of their financial performances and influence of CO2 cost," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6360-6374, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:10:p:6360-6374
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Maria del Carmen Gomez-Rios & Dora Carmen Galvez-Cruz, 2021. "Simulation of Levelized Costs of Electricity Considering Externalities," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(4), pages 1-23, Octubre -.
    2. Kavvadias, K.C. & Khamis, I., 2014. "Sensitivity analysis and probabilistic assessment of seawater desalination costs fueled by nuclear and fossil fuel," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(S1), pages 24-30.
    3. Lai, Chun Sing & Locatelli, Giorgio & Pimm, Andrew & Tao, Yingshan & Li, Xuecong & Lai, Loi Lei, 2019. "A financial model for lithium-ion storage in a photovoltaic and biogas energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Locatelli, Giorgio & Mancini, Mauro, 2011. "Large and small baseload power plants: Drivers to define the optimal portfolios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7762-7775.
    5. Mignacca, B. & Locatelli, G., 2020. "Economics and finance of Small Modular Reactors: A systematic review and research agenda," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    6. Locatelli, Giorgio & Boarin, Sara & Pellegrino, Francesco & Ricotti, Marco E., 2015. "Load following with Small Modular Reactors (SMR): A real options analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 41-54.
    7. Wright, Daniel G. & Dey, Prasanta K. & Brammer, John G., 2013. "A fuzzy levelised energy cost method for renewable energy technology assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 315-323.
    8. Locatelli, Giorgio & Mancini, Mauro & Todeschini, Nicola, 2013. "Generation IV nuclear reactors: Current status and future prospects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1503-1520.
    9. Locatelli, Giorgio & Mancini, Mauro & Lotti, Giovanni, 2020. "A simple-to-implement real options method for the energy sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    10. Sarjiya, & Budi, Rizki Firmansyah Setya & Hadi, Sasongko Pramono, 2019. "Game theory for multi-objective and multi-period framework generation expansion planning in deregulated markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 323-330.
    11. Jano-Ito, Marco A. & Crawford-Brown, Douglas, 2017. "Investment decisions considering economic, environmental and social factors: An actors' perspective for the electricity sector of Mexico," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 92-106.

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    Keywords

    LUEC Small medium plant Monte Carlo;

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