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Dealing with Demand Forecasting Games in Transport Privatization

Author

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  • Antonio Estache
  • Lourdes Trujillo
  • E. Quinet

Abstract

Privatization has increased the number of players in the decision-making process for major transport investment decisions. The main argument of this paper is that this fragmentation is creating opportunities for strategic decision-making by each actor and that this is particularly obvious in the context of demand forecasting. This paper explores some of the specific causes and consequences of this new situation, including the perverse incentives, linked to the diversity of the objectives across the actors and to the risk allocation induced by the regulatory regime. It illustrates the issues and possible solutions from a wide range of modal and country experiences. In particular, it discusses the role of the newly independent sector regulators in reconciling these diverse goals and their limitations in view of the major information asymmetries problems they face. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Estache & Lourdes Trujillo & E. Quinet, 2002. "Dealing with Demand Forecasting Games in Transport Privatization," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/43981, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/43981
    Note: SCOPUS: ar.j
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Skamris, Mette K. & Flyvbjerg, Bent, 1997. "Inaccuracy of traffic forecasts and cost estimates on large transport projects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 141-146, July.
    2. Eduardo M. R. A. Engel & Ronald D. Fischer & Alexander Galetovic, 2001. "Least-Present-Value-of-Revenue Auctions and Highway Franchising," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(5), pages 993-1020, October.
    3. Crampes, Claude & Estache, Antonio, 1997. "Regulatory tradeoffs in designing concession contracts for infrastructure networks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1854, The World Bank.
    4. Antonio Estache, 2001. "Privatization and Regulation of Transport Infrastructure in the 1990s'," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/43998, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Engel, Eduardo & Fischer, Ronald & Galetovic, Alexander, 1997. "Highway Franchising: Pitfalls and Opportunities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 68-72, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ernst ten Heuvelhof & Martijn Leijten, 2013. "New Public Management and the new features of strategic behaviour," Chapters,in: International Handbook on Mega-Projects, chapter 6, pages 111-130 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Morasch, Karl & Tóth, Rita Orsolya, 2008. "Assigning tasks in public infrastructure projects: Specialized private agents or public private partnerships?," Working Papers in Economics 2008,2, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.
    3. repec:eee:transa:v:111:y:2018:i:c:p:174-186 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Antonio Estache & Ellis Juan & Lourdes Trujillo, 2011. "Public–Private Partnerships in Transport," Chapters,in: A Handbook of Transport Economics, chapter 30 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Estache, Antonio & Gonzalez, Marianela & Trujillo, Lourdes, 2002. "What Does "Privatization" Do for Efficiency? Evidence from Argentina's and Brazil's Railways," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 1885-1897, November.
    6. Emmanuelle Auriol & Pierre M. Picard, 2008. "Infrastructure and Public Utilities Privatization in Developing Countries," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, November.
    7. Hensher, David A. & Goodwin, Phil, 2004. "Using values of travel time savings for toll roads: avoiding some common errors," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 171-181, April.
    8. Hensher, David A., 2008. "Influence of vehicle occupancy on the valuation of car driver's travel time savings: Identifying important behavioural segments," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 67-76, January.
    9. Viegas, José M., 2010. "Questioning the need for full amortization in PPP contracts for transport Infrastructure," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 139-144.
    10. Estache, Antonio & Serebrisky, Tomas, 2004. "Where do we stand on transport infrastructure deregulation and public-private partnership?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3356, The World Bank.
    11. Antonio Estache & Stéphane Saussier, 2014. "Public-Private Partnerships and Efficiency: A Short Assessment," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(3), pages 08-13, October.
    12. Grisolía, José María & Ortúzar, Juan de Dios, 2010. "Forecasting vs. observed outturn: Studying choice in faster inter-island connections," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 159-168, March.
    13. Babatunde, Solomon Olusola & Perera, Srinath, 2017. "Analysis of traffic revenue risk factors in BOT road projects in developing countries," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 41-49.
    14. Macário, Rosário & Ribeiro, Joana & Costa, Joana Duarte, 2015. "Understanding pitfalls in the application of PPPs in transport infrastructure in Portugal," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 90-99.
    15. Chantal C. Cantarelli & Bent Flybjerg & Eric J. E. Molin & Bert van Wee, 2013. "Cost overruns in Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Explanations and Their Theoretical Embeddedness," Papers 1307.2176, arXiv.org.
    16. repec:ces:ifodic:v:12:y:2014:i:3:p:19126463 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Locatelli, Giorgio & Mancini, Mauro, 2010. "Small-medium sized nuclear coal and gas power plant: A probabilistic analysis of their financial performances and influence of CO2 cost," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6360-6374, October.
    18. Athena Roumboutsos & Stéphane Saussier, 2014. "Public-private partnerships and investments in innovation: the influence of the contractual arrangement," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 349-361, April.
    19. Polydoropoulou, Amalia & Roumboutsos, Athena, 2009. "Evaluating the impact of decision making during construction on transport project outcome," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 369-380, November.
    20. Athias, Laure & Nunez, Antonio, 2008. "The more the merrier? Number of bidders, information dispersion, renegotiation and winner’s curse in toll road concessions," MPRA Paper 10539, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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