Optimal electricity generation portfolios
It is common practice to base investment decisions on price projections which are gained from simulations using price processes. The choice of the underlying process is crucial for the simulation outcome. For power plants the core question is the existence of stable long-term cointegration relations. Therefore we investigate the impacts of different ways to model price movements in a portfolio selection model for the German electricity market. Three different approaches of modelling fuel prices are compared: initially, all prices are modelled as correlated random walks. Thereafter the coal price is modelled as random walk. The gas price follows the coal price through a mean-reversion process. Lastly, all prices are modelled as mean reversion processes with correlated residuals. The prices of electricity base and peak futures are simulated using historical correlations with gas and coal prices. Yearly base and peak prices are transformed into an estimated price duration curve followed by the steps power plant dispatch, operational margin and net present value calculation and finally the portfolio selection. The analysis shows that the chosen price process assumptions have significant impacts on the resulting portfolio structure and the weights of individual technologies. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 9 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=111894|
|Order Information:||Web: http://link.springer.de/orders.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Haldrup, Niels & Nielsen, Morten Orregaard, 2006.
"A regime switching long memory model for electricity prices,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 349-376.
- Niels Haldrup & Morten O. Nielsen, 2004. "A Regime Switching Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices," Economics Working Papers 2004-2, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Bar-Lev, Dan & Katz, Steven, 1976. "A Portfolio Approach to Fossil Fuel Procurement in the Electric Utility Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(3), pages 933-47, June.
- Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010.
"The benefit of regional diversification of cogeneration investments in Europe: A mean-variance portfolio analysis,"
Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7911-7920, December.
- Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2009. "The Benefit of Regional Diversification of Cogeneration Investments in Europe: A Mean-Variance Portfolio Analysis," FCN Working Papers 5/2009, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Mar 2010.
- Fleten, Stein-Erik & Näsäkkälä, Erkka, 2010. "Gas-fired power plants: Investment timing, operating flexibility and CO2 capture," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 805-816, July.
- Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012.
"Investment in new power generation under uncertainty: Benefits of CHP vs. condensing plants in a copula-based analysis,"
Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 31-44.
- Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Investment in New Power Generation under Uncertainty: Benefits of CHP vs Condensing Plants in a Copula-Based Analysis," FCN Working Papers 12/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
- Seifert, Jan & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Wagner, Michael, 2008. "Dynamic behavior of CO2 spot prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 180-194, September.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, 03.
- Awerbuch, Shimon, 2000. "Investing in photovoltaics: risk, accounting and the value of new technology," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(14), pages 1023-1035, November.
- Muche, Thomas, 2009. "A real option-based simulation model to evaluate investments in pump storage plants," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4851-4862, November.
- Madlener, Reinhard & Wenk, Christioph, 2008. "Efficient Investment Portfolios for the Swiss Electricity Supply Sector," FCN Working Papers 2/2008, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
- Roques, Fabien A. & Newbery, David M. & Nuttall, William J., 2008. "Fuel mix diversification incentives in liberalized electricity markets: A Mean-Variance Portfolio theory approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1831-1849, July.
- Awerbuch, Shimon, 1995. "Market-based IRP: It's easy!!!," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 50-67, April.
- Geoffrey Rothwell, 2006. "A Real Options Approach to Evaluating New Nuclear Power Plants," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 87-54.
- Roques, F.A. & Nuttall, W.J. & Newbery, D.M., 2006. "Using Probabilistic Analysis to Value Power Generation Investments Under Uncertainty," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0650, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
- Blyth, William & Bradley, Richard & Bunn, Derek & Clarke, Charlie & Wilson, Tom & Yang, Ming, 2007. "Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5766-5773, November.
- Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-73, July.
- Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Development of cogeneration in Germany: A mean-variance portfolio analysis of individual technology’s prospects in view of the new regulatory framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 5301-5313.
- Meade, Nigel, 2010. "Oil prices -- Brownian motion or mean reversion? A study using a one year ahead density forecast criterion," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1485-1498, November.
- Scott H. Irwin & Carl R. Zulauf & Thomas E. Jackson, 1996. "Monte Carlo Analysis of Mean Reversion in Commodity Futures Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 387-399.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:comgts:v:9:y:2012:i:3:p:381-399. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Christopher F Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.