Solving the Capacity Optimization Problem under Demand Uncertainty
This paper provides theoretical and practical insight into the solution of the investment project optimization problem under uncertainty. A case study recommends the use of statistical simulation, which is shown to be a powerful, practical, flexible and comprehensive tool for managerial decision-making purposes, even as it takes into account exogeneous uncertainty, as well as endogeneous processes structurally vested in the project. Results show that excess capacity may have a value exceeding its cost, which can be assessed either through comparison of available variants, or by carrying out a full optimization. From the theoretical point of view, the relationship of the problem to real-option analysis is investigated in more detail. Even though it obviously does contain real options, in principle, as various project alternatives differ in terms of their flexibility to alter operating scale, the proposed solution clearly surmounts some of the limitations of prevalent realoption models.
Volume (Year): 12 (2009)
Issue (Month): 34 ((4))
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.rei.ase.ro/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hadar, Josef & Russell, William R, 1969. "Rules for Ordering Uncertain Prospects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 25-34, March.
- Lenos Trigeorgis, 1993. "Real Options and Interactions With Financial Flexibility," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
- Boyle, Phelim P., 1977. "Options: A Monte Carlo approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 323-338, May.
- A. Charnes & W. W. Cooper, 1959. "Chance-Constrained Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 73-79, October.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1986.
"Irreversible investment, capacity choice, and the value of the firm,"
1802-86., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-85, December.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1986. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," NBER Working Papers 1980, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rendleman, Richard J, Jr & Bartter, Brit J, 1979. "Two-State Option Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(5), pages 1093-1110, December.
- Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-12, December.
- Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rej:journl:v:12:y:2009:i:34:p:97-116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Radu Lupu)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.