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The Real Effects of Exchange Rate Risk on Corporate Investment: International Evidence

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  • Taylor, Mark
  • Wang, Zigan
  • Xu, Qi

Abstract

We empirically investigate the real effects of exchange rate risk on investment activities of international firms. We provide cross-country, firm-level evidence that greater unexpected currency volatility leads to significantly lower capital expenditures. The effect is stronger for countries with higher economic openness and for firms that do not use currency derivatives to hedge. We empirically test the implications of two potential mechanisms: Real options and precautionary savings. Our findings are consistent with both explanations. Two historical events in the FX markets strengthen the identification of our results.

Suggested Citation

  • Taylor, Mark & Wang, Zigan & Xu, Qi, 2020. "The Real Effects of Exchange Rate Risk on Corporate Investment: International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 15053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15053
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    2. Huang, Wendi & Zhang, Weikang, 2024. "Exchange rate and corporate investment: Heterogeneous effects via the global value chain networks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    3. Weikang Zhang & Isabel K. M. Yan & Yin-Wong Cheung, 2023. "The COVID-19 pandemics and import demand elasticities: evidence from China’s customs data," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, December.
    4. Dai, Yanke & Li, Baoxin & Xu, Yangfei, 2023. "International transmission of exchange rate volatility: Evidence from FIEs’ investments in China," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Felix Drinkall & Janet B. Pierrehumbert & Stefan Zohren, 2024. "Forecasting Credit Ratings: A Case Study where Traditional Methods Outperform Generative LLMs," Papers 2407.17624, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2025.
    6. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan & Xu, Qi, 2022. "Currency volatility and global technological innovation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Qian, Xianhang & Qiu, Shanyun, 2023. "Political risk and corporate international supply chain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    8. Wang, Daoping & Xin, Liying & Shen, Xinyan & Wang, Yedong, 2025. "Media sentiment fluctuations on exchange rate, managerial risk appetite and FX derivatives usage," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    9. Zhang, Qiuyue & Que, Jiangjing & Qin, Xiuting, 2023. "Regional financial technology and shadow banking activities of non-financial firms: Evidence from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    10. Nuwat Nookhwun & Jettawat Pattararangrong & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2025. "Exchange Rate Effects on Firm Performance: A NICER Approach," BIS Working Papers 1266, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Motie, Golnaz Baradaran & Zeng, Zheng, 2023. "Foreign portfolio investment and the US macroeconomic conditions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    12. Zhao, Chunyan & Gan, Zhongxin & Xu, Zhibo, 2024. "Supply chain ESG and non-financial corporate shadow banking: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    13. Sung C. Bae & Taek Ho Kwon, 2023. "Exchange Rate Risk Management using Currency Derivatives: The Case of Exposures to Japanese Yen," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(3), pages 621-647, September.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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