IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v68y2023ics1062940823000876.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Foreign portfolio investment and the US macroeconomic conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Motie, Golnaz Baradaran
  • Zeng, Zheng

Abstract

This paper examines how foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in the US and its components affect the US macroeconomic conditions. We estimate a Dynamic Factor Model to extract comovements from 31 indicators to obtain three composite measures of the US macroeconomic conditions, which correspond to real economic activity, monetary policy, and aggregate uncertainty. We find that an unexpected rise in FPI reduces long-term interest rates, raises real output production and employment, and lowers aggregate risks. Our results also show that the equity portion of FPI is significantly more sensitive to shocks to domestic market conditions than the debt portion of FPI. However, both components contribute substantially to the fluctuations of the US macroeconomic conditions. Finally, we find that shocks to FPI are one of the most significant contributors to the historical fluctuations in all output, monetary, and risk conditions. In particular, the equity component contributes substantially during economic recessions, while the debt component is the dominant force during economic booms.

Suggested Citation

  • Motie, Golnaz Baradaran & Zeng, Zheng, 2023. "Foreign portfolio investment and the US macroeconomic conditions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:68:y:2023:i:c:s1062940823000876
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2023.101964
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940823000876
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2023.101964?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philip R. Lane & Peter McQuade, 2014. "Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 218-252, January.
    2. Hui Tong & Shang-Jin Wei, 2011. "The Composition Matters: Capital Inflows and Liquidity Crunch During a Global Economic Crisis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2023-2052.
    3. Balke Nathan S. & Zeng Zheng, 2013. "Credit demand, credit supply, and economic activity," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 643-680, October.
    4. Michael S. Pagano & T. Shawn Strother, 2013. "Risk, Uncertainty, and the Perceived Threat of Terrorist Attacks: Evidence of Flight-to-Quality," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 1-25.
    5. Davis, J. Scott, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of debt- and equity-based capital inflows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 81-95.
    6. Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan & Xu, Qi, 2021. "The real effects of exchange rate risk on corporate investment: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    7. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Hegerty, Scott W., 2013. "The effects of exchange-rate volatility on commodity trade between the U.S. and Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 70-93.
    8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Igan, Deniz & Kutan, Ali M. & Mirzaei, Ali, 2020. "The real effects of capital inflows in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    2. Jonathan Scott Davis, 2017. "External debt and monetary policy autonomy," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(82), pages 53-63, April.
    3. repec:bdr:ensayo:v:35:y:2017:i:82:p:96-105 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Robert Dekle & Cheng Hsiao & Siyan Wang, 2001. "The Real Effects of Capital Inflows on Emerging Markets," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(02), pages 165-202.
    5. Akhilesh K. Verma & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2021. "Interlinkages between external debt financing, credit cycles and output fluctuations in emerging market economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(4), pages 965-1001, November.
    6. Guevara, Carlos & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2020. "The role of credit supply shocks in pacific alliance countries: A TVP-VAR-SV approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    7. Dai, Yanke & Li, Baoxin & Xu, Yangfei, 2023. "International transmission of exchange rate volatility: Evidence from FIEs’ investments in China," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Davis, J. Scott, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of debt- and equity-based capital inflows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 81-95.
    9. Milcheva, Stanimira & Zhu, Bing, 2016. "Bank integration and co-movements across housing markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 148-171.
    10. J. Scott Davis, 2016. "Economic fundamentals and monetary policy autonomy," Globalization Institute Working Papers 267, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    11. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2017. "The Great Leveraging in the European crisis countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(6), pages 895-910, November.
    12. Joseph P. Joyce, 2018. "External balance sheets as countercyclical crisis buffers," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 305-329, April.
    13. Gabriel Rodríguez & Carlos Guevara, 2018. "The Role of Loan Supply Shocks in Pacific Alliance Countries: A TVP-VAR-SV Approach," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2018-467, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    14. Stefan Avdjiev & Zheng Zeng, 2014. "Credit growth, monetary policy and economic activity in a three-regime TVAR model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(24), pages 2936-2951, August.
    15. Ali, Mirzaei & Iness, Aguir, 2020. "Capital inflows and bank stability around the financial crisis: The mitigating role of macro-prudential policies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    16. Deniz Igan & Zhibo Tan, 2017. "Capital Inflows, Credit Growth, and Financial Systems," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(12), pages 2649-2671, December.
    17. Maja Bukovšak & Gorana Lukinić Čardić & Nina Pavić, 2020. "Structure of capital flows and exchange rate: the case of Croatia," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 113-146, February.
    18. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    19. Özgür Orhangazi & A. Erinç Yeldan, 2021. "The Re‐making of the Turkish Crisis," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 52(3), pages 460-503, May.
    20. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & João Tovar Jalles, 2022. "Heterogeneous gains from countercyclical fiscal policy: new evidence from international industry-level data [Optimal investment with costly reversibility]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 773-804.
    21. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2014. "The great (De)leveraging in the GIIPS countries. Domestic credit and net foreign liabilities 1998–2013," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2014-4, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2014.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:68:y:2023:i:c:s1062940823000876. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.