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The Great Leveraging in the European crisis countries: Domestic credit and net foreign liabilities

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  • Juan Carlos Cuestas
  • Karsten Staehr

Abstract

Purpose - The Great Leveraging was an episode of rapid credit growth and booming housing markets leading up to the global financial crisis. It is important to identify the key drivers of the Great Leveraging and, to this end, the purpose of this paper is to model the relationship between domestic credit and net foreign liabilities in the EU countries most affected by the crisis. Design/methodology/approach - The analyses show that domestic credit and net foreign liabilities were cointegrated one-to-one for Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain, while there was no cointegration for Ireland. Estimation of vector error correction models (VECMs) shows that the adjustment to deviations from the cointegrating relationship took place through changes in domestic credit for Greece and Italy, while the adjustment was bidirectional for Spain and maybe also for Portugal. Findings - These results suggest that external factors in the form of foreign capital inflows were important drivers of the pre-crisis leveraging in the southern crisis countries, although to varying degrees across the countries. Originality/value - Key novelties include the use of stock variables instead of flow variables and the estimation of VECMs for the countries individually instead of in a panel.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2017. "The Great Leveraging in the European crisis countries: Domestic credit and net foreign liabilities," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 44(6), pages 895-910, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:jes-12-2016-0268
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Merike Kukk, 2019. "Are there asymmetries in the interaction between housing prices and housing credit? Evidence from a country with rapid credit accumulation," Working Papers 2019/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    2. Karsten Staehr & Lenno Uusküla, 2020. "Macroeconomic and macro-financial factors as leading indicators of non-performing loans: Evidence from the EU countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 48(3), pages 720-740, February.
    3. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Mercedes Monfort & Javier Ordóñez, 2022. "House prices in Spain: Is it always sunny and warm?," Working Papers 2022/07, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    4. Cuestas, Juan Carlos, 2017. "House prices and capital inflows in Spain during the boom: Evidence from a cointegrated VAR and a structural Bayesian VAR," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 22-28.
    5. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Maria Malmierca, 2021. "Credit-to-GDP ratios. Non-linear trends and persistence: Evidence from 44 OECD economies," Working Papers 2021/05, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; Leveraging; Cointegration; Capital flows; F32; E51; E44; C32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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