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House prices in Spain: Is it always sunny and warm?

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Carlos Cuestas

    (IEI and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

  • Mercedes Monfort

    (IEI and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

  • Javier Ordóñez

    (IEI and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the evolution of real estate prices in Spain in the last 50 years, focusing on the existence of rational bubbles, and to assess how to covid pandemic has affected the evolution of those prices. In order to do that, we estimate autoregressive models with structural breaks, and run a forecasting exercise to compare those values with the observed ones from 2020. We find that the real estate market in Spain has been hit by a continuum of bubbles since the 1970s and that the pandemic has negatively affected the real estate prices in Spain.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Cuestas & Mercedes Monfort & Javier Ordóñez, 2022. "House prices in Spain: Is it always sunny and warm?," Working Papers 2022/07, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    • Handle: RePEc:jau:wpaper:2022/07
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Merike Kukk, 2020. "The Spanish housing market: is it fundamentally broken?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(15), pages 1295-1299, September.
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    3. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2017. "The Great Leveraging in the European crisis countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(6), pages 895-910, November.
    4. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    5. Cuestas, Juan Carlos, 2017. "House prices and capital inflows in Spain during the boom: Evidence from a cointegrated VAR and a structural Bayesian VAR," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 22-28.
    6. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-930, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spain; house prices; real estate; COVID19; structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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