IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/empiri/v47y2020i1d10.1007_s10663-018-9406-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Structure of capital flows and exchange rate: the case of Croatia

Author

Listed:
  • Maja Bukovšak

    (Croatian National Bank)

  • Gorana Lukinić Čardić

    (Croatian National Bank)

  • Nina Pavić

    (Croatian National Bank)

Abstract

The paper analyses the impact of different types of capital flows on the exchange rate in a small open economy using Croatian data. We estimate structural vector autoregressive models based on Cholesky decomposition with block exogeneity restrictions using different types of capital flows and find that the structure of capital flows matters for their impact on the exchange rate. On the one hand, debt capital inflows lead to kuna appreciation, irrespective of their maturity, while in terms of sectoral structure this is mostly due to corporate and government borrowing. On the other hand, there is some evidence that equity capital inflows lead to kuna depreciation, which could stem from their stronger orientation towards the tradable sector. The results also indicate that capital flows to the banking sector have no effect on the exchange rate, providing support for the use of countercyclical measures by the central bank.

Suggested Citation

  • Maja Bukovšak & Gorana Lukinić Čardić & Nina Pavić, 2020. "Structure of capital flows and exchange rate: the case of Croatia," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 113-146, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:47:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s10663-018-9406-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-018-9406-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10663-018-9406-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10663-018-9406-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pınar Yeşin, 2017. "Capital Flows and the Swiss Franc," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 153(4), pages 403-436, October.
    2. Tomislav Globan, 2014. "Testing the 'trilemma' in post-transition Europe - a new empirical measure of capital mobility," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 459-476, December.
    3. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    4. Philip R. Lane & Peter McQuade, 2014. "Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 218-252, January.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    6. Philip R. Lane, 2013. "Capital Flows in the Euro Area," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 497, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Robin Brooks & Hali Edison & Manmohan S. Kumar & Torsten Sløk, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Capital Flows," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(3), pages 511-533, September.
    8. Mr. Alejandro Lopez Mejia, 1999. "Large Capital Flows: A Survey of the Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," IMF Working Papers 1999/017, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Combes, Jean-Louis & Kinda, Tidiane & Plane, Patrick, 2012. "Capital flows, exchange rate flexibility, and the real exchange rate," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1034-1043.
    10. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2005. "New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-27752-1, September.
    11. Hoggarth, Glen & Jung, Carsten & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2016. "Capital inflows — the good, the bad and the bubbly," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 40, Bank of England.
    12. Ljubinko Jankov & Ivo Krznar & Davor Kunovac & Maroje Lang, 2008. "The Impact of the USD/EUR Exchange Rate on Inflation in the Central and East European Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 50(4), pages 646-662, December.
    13. Glenn Hoggarth and Gabriel Sterne, 1997. "Capital Flows: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 14, April.
    14. Corden, W. Max, 1995. "Economic Policy, Exchange Rates, and the International System," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226115917, September.
    15. Anton Jevcak & Ralph Setzer & Massimo Suardi, 2010. "Determinants of Capital Flows to the New EU Member States Before and During the Financial Crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 425, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    16. Prema‐Chandra Athukorala & Sarath Rajapatirana, 2003. "Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate: A Comparative Study of Asia and Latin America," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 613-637, April.
    17. Goran Vuksic, 2005. "Impact of foreign direct investment on Croatian manufacturing exports," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(2), pages 131-158.
    18. Igor Ljubaj, 2012. "Estimating the Impact of Monetary Policy on Household and Corporate Loans: a FAVEC Approach," Working Papers 34, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    19. Davis, J. Scott, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of debt- and equity-based capital inflows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 81-95.
    20. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan, 2016. "Transmission of global financial shocks to EMU member states: The role of monetary policy and national factors," Discussion Papers 23/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Kraft, Evan & Galac, Tomislav, 2011. "Macroprudential regulation of credit booms and busts -- the case of Croatia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5772, The World Bank.
    22. Emmanuel K. K. Lartey, 2008. "Capital Inflows, Resource Reallocation and the Real Exchange Rate," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 131-152, August.
    23. Davor Kunovac & Nina Pavić, 2017. "Can the Adoption of the Euro in Croatia Reduce the Cost of Borrowing?," Surveys 28, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    24. Mirna Dumičić & Igor Ljubaj & Ana Martinis, 2018. "Persistence of Euroisation in Croatia," Surveys 31, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    25. Mr. Bassem M Kamar & Damyana Bakardzhieva & Sami Ben Naceur & Sami Ben Naceur, 2010. "The Impact of Capital and Foreign Exchange Flowson the Competitiveness of Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/154, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Ivo Krznar & Davor Kunovac, 2010. "Impact of External Shocks on Domestic Inflation and GDP," Working Papers 26, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    27. Alen Škudar, 2004. "Survey and Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment in the Republic of Croatia," Surveys 9, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    28. Goran Jovičić & Davor Kunovac, 2017. "What is Driving Inflation and GDP in a Small European Economy: The Case of Croatia," Working Papers 49, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maja Bukovšak & Gorana Lukinić Čardić & Nina Ranilović, 2017. "Structure of Capital Flows and Exchange Rate: The Case of Croatia," Working Papers 52, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    2. Aizenman, Joshua & Binici, Mahir, 2016. "Exchange market pressure in OECD and emerging economies: Domestic vs. external factors and capital flows in the old and new normal," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 65-87.
    3. Pınar Yeşin, 2017. "Capital Flows and the Swiss Franc," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 153(4), pages 403-436, October.
    4. Heng, Dyna, 2011. "Capital flows and real exchange rate: does financial development matter?," MPRA Paper 48553, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2012.
    5. Shashank Goel & V. Raveendra Saradhi, 2015. "Capital Flow Components and the Real Exchange Rate: Implications for India," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 14(2), pages 179-194, December.
    6. Lepers, Etienne & Mercado, Rogelio, 2021. "Sectoral capital flows: Covariates, co-movements, and controls," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Mahraddika, Wishnu, 2020. "Real exchange rate misalignments in developing countries: The role of exchange rate flexibility and capital account openness," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1-24.
    8. Ho-Don Yan & Li-Ju Chen & Yi-Heng Tseng, 2014. "Capital Inflow, Foreign Exchange Intervention, and Currency Misalignment in Emerging Market Countries," China Economic Policy Review (CEPR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 1-30.
    9. Suxiao Li & Jakob de Haan & Bert Scholtens, 2018. "Are International Fund Flows Related to Exchange Rate Dynamics?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 31-48, February.
    10. Eugenio Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Andrew K. Rose, 2019. "How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 24-60, March.
    11. Hubert Gabrisch & Karsten Staehr, 2015. "The Euro Plus Pact: Competitiveness and External Capital Flows in the EU Countries," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 558-576, May.
    12. Andrew Powell & Pilar Tavella, 2012. "Capital Inflow Surges in Emerging Economies: How Worried Should LAC Be?," Research Department Publications 4782, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    13. Fabiani, Josefina & Fidora, Michael & Setzer, Ralph & Westphal, Andreas & Zorell, Nico, 2021. "Sudden stops and asset purchase programmes in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2597, European Central Bank.
    14. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2015. "Current Account and Reer Misalignments in Central Eastern EU Countries: an Update Using the Macroeconomic Balance Approach," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 20, Bank of Lithuania.
    15. Jean-Louis COMBES & Patrick PLANE & Tidiane KINDA, 2010. "Capital Flows and their Impact on the Real Effective Exchange Rate," Working Papers 201032, CERDI.
    16. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2019. "Ride the Wild Surf: An investigation of the drivers of surges in capital inflows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 112-136.
    17. Puspa D. Amri & Greg M. Richey & Thomas D. Willett, 2016. "Capital Surges and Credit Booms: How Tight is the Relationship?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 637-670, September.
    18. Ali Askin Culha, 2006. "A Structural VAR Analysis of the Determinants of Capital Flows Into Turkey," Working Papers 0605, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    19. Phillip Edmund Metaxas & Ernst Juerg Weber, 2016. "An Australian Contribution to International Trade Theory: The Dependent Economy Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(298), pages 464-497, September.
    20. Nusrate Aziz & Arusha Cooray & Wing Leong Teo, 2021. "Do immigrants’ funds affect the exchange rate?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 560-585, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital inflows; Exchange rate; SVAR with block exogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:47:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s10663-018-9406-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.