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Impact of External Shocks on Domestic Inflation and GDP

Author

Listed:
  • Ivo Krznar
  • Davor Kunovac

    (The Croatian National Bank, Croatia)

Abstract

This paper explores the spillover effects of external shocks on inflation and gross domestic product in Croatia. Impulse responses and variance decomposition of the estimated VAR model with block-exogenous restrictions point to external factors as the main determinants of domestic inflation and domestic economic activity. On the other hand, domestic shocks only slightly influence the movements and fluctuations of domestic variables. The VAR model estimation results show that the relevance of external shocks must be taken into account in theoretical modelling of domestic economic activity and prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivo Krznar & Davor Kunovac, 2010. "Impact of External Shocks on Domestic Inflation and GDP," Working Papers 26, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    • Handle: RePEc:hnb:wpaper:26
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    File URL: http://www.hnb.hr/repec/hnb/wpaper/pdf/w-026.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    2. Maruška Vizek & Tanja Broz, 2009. "Modeling Inflation in Croatia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 87-98, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maja Bukovšak & Gorana Lukinić Čardić & Nina Pavić, 2020. "Structure of capital flows and exchange rate: the case of Croatia," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 113-146, February.
    2. Jakšić Saša, 2022. "Modelling Determinants of Inflation in CESEE Countries: Global Vector Autoregressive Approach," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 22(1), pages 137-169, June.
    3. Vladimir Arčabić, 2020. "Koronakriza i što Hrvatska može naučiti iz dosadašnjih recesija," Tradicionalni skup Hrvatskog društva ekonomista u Opatiji - objavljena poglavlja, in: Josip Tica & Katarina Bačić (ed.), Ekonomska politika u 2021. godini - Hrvatska poslije pandemije, volume 28, chapter 1, pages 21-58, Hrvatsko društvo ekonomista (Croatian Society of Economists).
    4. Katarzyna Kubiszewska, 2013. "Economic Crisis In Croatia," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 4(2), pages 57-72, June.
    5. Roseline Nyakerario Misati & Esman Morekwa Nyamongo & Isaac Mwangi, 2013. "Commodity price shocks and inflation in a net oil-importing economy," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 37(2), pages 125-148, June.
    6. Titus Ayobami Ojeyinka & Dauda Olalekan Yinusa, 2023. "External Shocks and Their Transmission Channels in Nigeria: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 15(1), pages 132-153, January.
    7. Feldkircher, Martin, 2015. "A global macro model for emerging Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 706-726.
    8. Rafael Ravnik, 2014. "Short-Term Forecasting of GDP under Structural Changes," Working Papers 40, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    9. Karlo Kotarac & Davor Kunovac & Rafael Ravnik, 2017. "Coherence of Business Cycles and Economic Shocks between Croatia and Euro Area Member States," Working Papers 53, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    10. Mirna Dumičić & Ivo Krznar, 2013. "Financial Conditions and Economic Activity," Working Papers 37, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    11. Petar Soric & Ivana Lolic, 2017. "Economic uncertainty and its impact on the Croatian economy," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 41(4), pages 443-477.
    12. Tomislav Ćorić & Hrvoje Šimović & Milan Deskar-Škrbić, 2013. "Restoring International Competitiveness In Croatia: The Role Of Fiscal And Monetary Policy," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 58(199), pages 39-56, October -.
    13. Maja Bukovšak & Gorana Lukinić Čardić & Nina Ranilović, 2017. "Structure of Capital Flows and Exchange Rate: The Case of Croatia," Working Papers 52, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    14. Petrevski, Goran & Exterkate, Peter & Tevdovski, Dragan & Bogoev, Jane, 2015. "The transmission of foreign shocks to South Eastern European economies: A Bayesian VAR approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 632-643.
    15. Deskar-Škrbić, Milan & Kotarac, Karlo & Kunovac, Davor, 2020. "The third round of euro area enlargement: Are the candidates ready?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    16. Ozana Nadoveza Jelić & Rafael Ravnik, 2021. "Introducing Policy Analysis Croatian MAcroecoNometric Model (PACMAN)," Surveys 41, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    17. Markus Eller & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2017. "How would a fiscal shock in Germany affect other European countries? Evidence from a Bayesian GVAR model with sign restrictions," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 54-77.
    18. Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev & Dragan Tevdovski, 2015. "The transmission of foreign shocks to South Eastern European economies," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 747-767, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    VAR model with block-exogenous restrictions; small open economy; inflation; GDP; external shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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