Short-Term Forecasting of GDP under Structural Changes
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008.
"Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
- Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David H. Small, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David H Small, 2007. "Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 164, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Small, David, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases," CEPR Discussion Papers 5178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2007.
"Factor-MIDAS for now- and forecasting with ragged-edge data: a model comparison for German GDP,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2007,34, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/16, European University Institute.
- Schumacher, Christian & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for now- and forecasting with ragged-edge data: A model comparison for German GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 6708, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ferrara, Laurent & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mogliani, Matteo, 2015.
"Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 664-679.
- Ferrara, L. & Marcellino, M. & Mogliani, M., 2012. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?," Working papers 383, Banque de France.
- Laurent Ferrara & Massimiliano Marcellino & Matteo Mogliani, 2015. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: the return of non-linearity?," Post-Print hal-01635951, HAL.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Ferrara, Laurent & Mogliani, Matteo, 2013. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R, 2001.
"A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov-Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 989-1013, November.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson, 1998. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0059, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson, 1999. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0035, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson, 1999. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 0035, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson, 1998. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 0059, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2014.
"Forecasting UK GDP growth and inflation under structural change. A comparison of models with time-varying parameters,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 129-143.
- Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2012. "Forecasting UK GDP growth, inflation and interest rates under structural change: a comparison of models with time-varying parameters," Bank of England working papers 450, Bank of England.
- Ivo Krznar & Davor Kunovac, 2010. "Impact of External Shocks on Domestic Inflation and GDP," Working Papers 26, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
- Davor Kunovac, 2011. "Asymmetric correlations on the Croatian equity market," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24.
- Davor Kunovac & Borna Špalat, 2014. "Nowcasting GDP Using Available Monthly Indicators," Working Papers 39, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
- Davor Kunovac, 2013. "The Borrowing Costs of Selected Countries of the European Union – the Role of the Spillover of External Shocks," Working Papers 38, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014.
"A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix,"
Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-708, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ana Maria Čeh & Mirna Dumičić & Ivo Krznar, 2011. "A Credit Market Disequilibrium Model And Periods of Credit Crunch," Working Papers 28, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
- Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2008. "Trend Inflation, Indexation, and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2101-2126, December.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Lasha Kavtaradze & Manouchehr Mokhtari, 2018. "Factor Models And Time†Varying Parameter Framework For Forecasting Exchange Rates And Inflation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 302-334, April.
- Rafael Ravnik & Nikola Bokan, 2018. "Quarterly Projection Model for Croatia," Surveys 34, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Mandalinci, Zeyyad, 2017.
"Forecasting inflation in emerging markets: An evaluation of alternative models,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1082-1104.
- Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: An Evaluation of Alternative Models," CReMFi Discussion Papers 3, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
- Fondeur, Y. & Karamé, F., 2013.
"Can Google data help predict French youth unemployment?,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 117-125.
- Frédéric Karamé & Yannick Fondeur, 2012. "Can Google Data Help Predict French Youth Unemployment?," Documents de recherche 12-03, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
- Y. Fondeur & F. Karamé, 2013. "Can Google data help predict French youth unemployment?," Post-Print hal-02297071, HAL.
- Ozana Nadoveza Jelić & Rafael Ravnik, 2021. "Introducing Policy Analysis Croatian MAcroecoNometric Model (PACMAN)," Surveys 41, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
- Raggi, Davide & Bordignon, Silvano, 2012.
"Long memory and nonlinearities in realized volatility: A Markov switching approach,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3730-3742.
- S. Bordignon & D. Raggi, 2010. "Long memory and nonlinearities in realized volatility: a Markov switching approach," Working Papers 694, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015.
"Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility,"
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(4), pages 837-862, October.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Real-time nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Working Papers (Old Series) 1227, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2013. "Real-Time Nowcasting with a Bayesian Mixed Frequency Model with Stochastic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 9312, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Wang, Hong & Forbes, Catherine S. & Fenech, Jean-Pierre & Vaz, John, 2020.
"The determinants of bank loan recovery rates in good times and bad – New evidence,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 875-897.
- Hong Wang & Catherine S. Forbes & Jean-Pierre Fenech & John Vaz, 2018. "The determinants of bank loan recovery rates in good times and bad -- new evidence," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 7/18, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Hong Wang & Catherine S. Forbes & Jean-Pierre Fenech & John Vaz, 2018. "The determinants of bank loan recovery rates in good times and bad - new evidence," Papers 1804.07022, arXiv.org.
- Nima Nonejad, 2013. "Time-Consistency Problem and the Behavior of US Inflation from 1970 to 2008," CREATES Research Papers 2013-25, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Richard H. Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2006.
"The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1193-1224, May.
- Taylor, Mark & Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4835, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Aleksandra Riedl & Julia Wörz, 2018. "A simple approach to nowcasting GDP growth in CESEE economies," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q4/18, pages 56-74.
- Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, May.
- Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018.
"Does The Great Recession Imply The End Of The Great Moderation? International Evidence,"
Economic Inquiry,
Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 745-760, April.
- Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2014. "Does the Great Recession imply the end of the Great Moderation? International evidence," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-21, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
- Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018. "Does the Great Recession imply the end of the Great Moderation? International evidence," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01757081, HAL.
- Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2014. "Does the Great Recession imply the end of the Great Moderation? International evidence," Working Papers hal-00952951, HAL.
- Laurent Ferrara & Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2017. "Does the Great Recession imply the end of the Great Moderation? International evidence," Post-Print hal-01635945, HAL.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2014.
"Nowcasting GDP in Real Time: A Density Combination Approach,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 48-68, January.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "Nowcasting GDP in real-time: A density combination approach," Working Paper 2011/11, Norges Bank.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach," Working Papers No 1/2011, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Sean P. Grover & Michael W. McCracken, 2014. "Factor-based prediction of industry-wide bank stress," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(2), pages 173-194.
- Yasufumi Gemma & Takushi Kurozumi & Mototsugu Shintani, 2023.
"Trend Inflation and Evolving Inflation Dynamics:A Bayesian GMM Analysis,"
Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 506-520, December.
- Yasufumi Gemma & Takushi Kurozumi & Mototsugu Shintani, 2017. "Trend Inflation and Evolving Inflation Dynamics: A Bayesian GMM Analysis of the Generalized New Keynesian Phillips Curve," IMES Discussion Paper Series 17-E-10, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Yasufumi Gemma & Takushi Kurozumi & Mototsugu Shintani, 2023. "Code and data files for "Trend Inflation and Evolving Inflation Dynamics:A Bayesian GMM Analysis"," Computer Codes 22-126, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- Vladimir Kuzin & Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2009.
"Pooling versus Model Selection for Nowcasting with Many Predictors: An Application to German GDP,"
Economics Working Papers
ECO2009/13, European University Institute.
- Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: an application to German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Schumacher, Christian & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kuzin, Vladimir, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: An application to German GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 7197, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Matheson, Troy D., 2010.
"An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: The importance of business opinion surveys,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 304-314, January.
- Troy Matheson, 2007. "An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: the importance of business opinion surveys," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/13, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2013.
"Advances in Forecasting under Instability,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324,
Elsevier.
- Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "MIDAS versus mixed-frequency VAR: nowcasting GDP in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Antipa, Pamfili & Barhoumi, Karim & Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012.
"Nowcasting German GDP: A comparison of bridge and factor models,"
Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 864-878.
- Antipa, P. & Barhoumi, K. & Brunhes-Lesage, V. & Darn , O., 2012. "Nowcasting German GDP: A comparison of bridge and factor models," Working papers 401, Banque de France.
- Rafael Ravnik & Nikola Bokan, 2018. "Quarterly Projection Model for Croatia," Surveys 34, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
More about this item
Keywords
GDP forecasts; Bayesian models with time-varying parameters;JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hnb:wpaper:40. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Romana Sinković (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.hnb.hr .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.