IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ime/imedps/08-e-11.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Real Exchange Rate Dynamics under Staggered Loan Contracts

Author

Listed:
  • Ippei Fujiwara

    (Director, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: ippei.fujiwara @boj.or.jp))

  • Yuki Teranishi

    (Associate Director, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: yuuki.teranishi @boj.or.jp))

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between real exchange rate dynamics and financial market imperfections. For this purpose, we first construct a New Open Economy Macroeconomics (NOEM) model that incorporates international staggered loan contracts as a simple form of the financial market imperfections. Recent empirical studies show that such staggered loan contracts are prevalent in the US, UK, and Japan and direct shocks to the bank lending interest rate (risk premium shocks) are major drivers of business cycle dynamics. Simulation results only with such a financial market friction and a risk premium shock can generate persistent, volatile, and realistic hump-shaped responses of real exchange rates, which have been thought very difficult to reproduce in standard NOEM models. This implies that these financial market developments can possibly be a major source of real exchange rate fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ippei Fujiwara & Yuki Teranishi, 2008. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics under Staggered Loan Contracts," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-11, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:08-e-11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/08-E-11.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
    2. Michael B. Devereux, 1997. "Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomics: Evidence and Theory," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 773-808, November.
    3. Christiano, Lawrence & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2008. "Shocks, structures or monetary policies? The Euro Area and US after 2001," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2476-2506, August.
    4. Chari, V V & Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1995. "Inside Money, Outside Money, and Short-Term Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1354-1386, November.
    5. Cowling, Marc, 2010. "The role of loan guarantee schemes in alleviating credit rationing in the UK," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 36-44, April.
    6. Huizinga, John, 1987. "An empirical investigation of the long-run behavior of real exchange rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 149-214, January.
    7. Bergin, Paul R. & Feenstra, Robert C., 2000. "Staggered price setting, translog preferences, and endogenous persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 657-680, June.
    8. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
    9. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1999. "New Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt5pf7g8sh, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    10. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    11. Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg (ed.), 1997. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026252242x, December.
    12. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    13. Berger, Allen N & Udell, Gregory F, 1992. "Some Evidence on the Empirical Significance of Credit Rationing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 1047-1077, October.
    14. Jón Steinsson, 2008. "The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 519-533, March.
    15. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2002. "Global Implications of Self-Oriented National Monetary Rules," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 503-535.
    16. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    17. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy in a currency area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 293-320, July.
    18. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    19. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2003. "Maximum likelihood in the frequency domain: the importance of time-to-plan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 789-815, May.
    20. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1999. "New Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5pf7g8sh, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    21. Andrew T. Levin & Fabio M. Natalucci & Egon Zakrajšek, 2004. "The magnitude and cyclical behavior of financial market frictions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-70, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Sven W. Arndt & J. David Richardson, 1987. "Real-Financial Linkages Among Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 2230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    24. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    25. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    26. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February.
    27. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On the purchasing power parity puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 321-330, December.
    28. Maurice Obstfeld, 2002. "Inflation-Targeting, Exchange-Rate Pass-Through, and Volatility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 102-107, May.
    29. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    30. Kimball, Miles S, 1995. "The Quantitative Analytics of the Basic Neomonetarist Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1241-1277, November.
    31. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Henri Pagès, 1999. "Interbank interest rates and the risk premium," BIS Working Papers 81, Bank for International Settlements.
    33. Blaise Gadanecz, 2004. "The syndicated loan market," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    34. Slovin, Myron B & Sushka, Marie Elizabeth, 1983. "A Model of the Commercial Loan Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1583-1596, December.
    35. Townsend, Robert M., 1979. "Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 265-293, October.
    36. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    37. Benigno, Gianluca, 2004. "Real exchange rate persistence and monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 473-502, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ippei Fujiwara & Yuki Teranishi, 2009. "Financial Stability in Open Economies," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fujiwara, Ippei & Teranishi, Yuki, 2011. "Real exchange rate dynamics revisited: A case with financial market imperfections," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1562-1589.
    2. Jón Steinsson, 2008. "The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 519-533, March.
    3. Ippei Fujiwara & Yuki Teranishi, 2009. "Financial Stability in Open Economies," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    4. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, November.
    5. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2010. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Open Economies," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 16, pages 861-933, Elsevier.
    6. Kollmann, Robert, 2002. "Monetary policy rules in the open economy: effects on welfare and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 989-1015, July.
    7. Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Wolters, Maik H., 2011. "Does trade integration alter monetary policy transmission?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 545-564, April.
    8. Etro, Federico, 2017. "Research in economics and macroeconomics," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 373-383.
    9. Kollmann, Robert, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules in an Interdependent World," CEPR Discussion Papers 4012, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Yuki Teranishi, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Staggered Loan Contracts," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-08, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    11. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 2009. "The Simple Geometry of Transmission and Stabilization in Closed and Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, pages 65-116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Gong, Liutang & Wang, Chan & Zou, Heng-fu, 2016. "Optimal monetary policy with international trade in intermediate inputs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 140-165.
    13. Marzo, Massimiliano, 2009. "Wage or price-based inflation? Alternative targets in optimal monetary policy rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1296-1313, June.
    14. Michael Paetz, 2007. "Robust Control and Persistence in the New Keynesian Economy," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20711, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    15. Candian, Giacomo, 2019. "Information frictions and real exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 189-205.
    16. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks´ Macro Models," Working Paper Series 323, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    17. Martínez-García Enrique, 2010. "A Model of the Exchange Rate with Informational Frictions," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-39, January.
    18. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "Openness, imperfect exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 947-981, July.
    19. Lindé, J. & Smets, F. & Wouters, R., 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks’ Macro Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2185-2262, Elsevier.
    20. Gregory De Walque & Thomas Lejeune & Yuliya Rychalovska & Rafael Wouters, 2017. "An estimated two-country EA-US model with limited exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper Research 317, National Bank of Belgium.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:08-e-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kinken (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imegvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.