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Koronakriza i što Hrvatska može naučiti iz dosadašnjih recesija

In: Ekonomska politika u 2021. godini - Hrvatska poslije pandemije

Author

Listed:
  • Vladimir Arčabić

    (University of Zagreb)

Abstract

Novi koronavirus koji se pojavio u Kini krajem 2019. godine brzo se širi ostatkom svijeta. Osim posljedica za ljudsko zdravlje, virus u kombinaciji s epidemiološkim mjerama nanosi značajnu štetu gospodarstvu, započevši takozvanu koronakrizu. Cilj ovoga rada je pružiti pravovremene smjernice o utjecaju koronakrize na hrvatsko gospodarstvo. Analizira se utjecaj koronakrize na tekuće pokazatelje tržišta rada te se provodi usporedba s iskustvima iz ranijih hrvatskih recesija 1998. – 1999. te 2009. – 2014. Nadalje, simuliraju se efekti inozemnog i domaćeg šoka na dodanu vrijednost sektora prema Nacionalnoj klasifikaciji djelatnosti u Hrvatskoj. Cilj je utvrditi koji su sektori najviše izloženi šokovima u kratkom i srednjem roku. U radu se također analizira kako sektori međusobno djeluju jedan na drugi te postoje li međusobna prelijevanja. Na temelju prelijevanja utvrđuju se sektori neto prijenosnici odnosno neto primatelji šokova. Rezultati pokazuju da je rast nezaposlenosti na samome početku koronakrize brži nego u prethodne dvije recesije, ali se ubrzo stabilizirao. Također, utvrđeno je da su brojni sektori izrazito osjetljivi na inozemni šok, dok je osjetljivost na domaće šokove nešto slabije izražena. U kratkom roku su najviše izloženi sektor trgovine i usluga, a u srednjem roku se pridružuju građevinarstvo i prerađivačka industrija. Sektori neto prijenosnici šokova su prije svega trgovina i usluge, zatim financije i osiguranje te na kraju poslovanje nekretninama, a prelijevanje šokova je snažnije u recesiji.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir Arčabić, 2020. "Koronakriza i što Hrvatska može naučiti iz dosadašnjih recesija," Tradicionalni skup Hrvatskog društva ekonomista u Opatiji - objavljena poglavlja, in: Josip Tica & Katarina Bačić (ed.), Ekonomska politika u 2021. godini - Hrvatska poslije pandemije, volume 28, chapter 1, pages 21-58, Hrvatsko društvo ekonomista (Croatian Society of Economists).
    • Handle: RePEc:hde:opchap:28-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; recesija; sektori; osjetljivost; Hrvatska;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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