Modeling Inflation in Croatia
This paper constructs a quarterly inflation model for Croatia, using the general-to-specific approach to model inflation dynamics. A two-step procedure is followed. First, we conduct a long-run sectoral analysis of inflation sources, yielding long-run determinants of inflation: markup, excess money, nominal effective exchange rate, and the output gap. Second, we estimate an equilibrium error correction model of inflation, deploying, among other variables of interest, the long-run solutions derived in the first step. The derived model of inflation suggests that inflation inertia and Croatian trading partners' inflation are most important for explaining the short-run behavior of inflation. Apart from these two variables, markup, excess money, output gap, nominal exchange rate, and broad money also contribute to inflation changes in the short run.
Volume (Year): 45 (2009)
Issue (Month): 6 (November)
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- Payne, James E., 2002. "Inflationary dynamics of a transition economy: the Croatian experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 219-230, June.
- Billmeier, Andreas & Bonato, Leo, 2004.
"Exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy in Croatia,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 426-444, September.
- Leo Bonato & Andreas Billmeier, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Monetary Policy in Croatia," IMF Working Papers 02/109, International Monetary Fund.
- Toshitaka Sekine, 2001. "Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in Japan," IMF Working Papers 01/82, International Monetary Fund.
- R. Golinelli & R. Orsi, 2001. "Hungary and Poland," Working Papers 424, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
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