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Determinants of Inflation in Azerbaijan

Author

Listed:
  • Vugar Rahimov

    () (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic)

  • Shaig Adigozalov

    () (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic)

  • Fuad Mammadov

    () (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic)

Abstract

This paper assesses the main determinants of inflation in Azerbaijan during 2003-2015 years. Using quarterly data on CPI, trade partner’s CPI, nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), money supply (M2), real non-oil gross domestic product (NGDP) and credits we employ vector auto regression (VAR) analysis in order to conduct our study. Impulse response and variance decomposition analysis suggest that inflation is mostly explained by foreign inflation, fiscal policy, exchange rate and own shocks. Whereas monetary policy and supply shocks do not play any essential role in explaining inflation. Among these variables inflation expectations, foreign inflation and monetary policy (credit variable) have quick effect on domestic headline inflation, whereas the effect of fiscal variable is relatively slower: it takes two quarters to fully reflect on prices. We also find that appreciation of exchange rate has deflationary effect on domestic inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Vugar Rahimov & Shaig Adigozalov & Fuad Mammadov, 2016. "Determinants of Inflation in Azerbaijan," Working Papers 1607, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
  • Handle: RePEc:aze:wpaper:1607
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Huseynov, Salman & Ahmadov, Vugar & Adigozalov, Shaig, 2014. "Beating a Random Walk: “Hard Times” for Forecasting Inflation in Post-Oil Boom Years?," MPRA Paper 63515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
    3. R. Golinelli & R. Orsi, 2001. "Hungary and Poland," Working Papers 424, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    4. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
    5. Huseynov, Salman & Ahmadov, Vugar, 2012. "Currency substitution in an oil-rich CIS country: The case of Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 70701, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Maruška Vizek & Tanja Broz, 2009. "Modeling Inflation in Croatia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 87-98, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nijat Guliyev, 2018. "The effects of external shocks on Azerbaijan economy," Working Papers 1802, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumer price index; inflation; determinants of inflation; historical decomposition; developing country; structural vector autoregression;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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