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Time Series Modeling of Inflation and its Volatility in Croatia

Author

Listed:
  • Igor Živko

    (Faculty of Economics and Business,University of Mostar)

  • Mile BoÅ¡njak

    (Faculty of Economics and Business,University of Zagreb)

Abstract

Croatian National Bank is not targeting inflation but exchange rate as the nominal anchor or intermediary goal of monetary policy and inflation in Croatia is a dominantly foreign driven phenomenon. Using monthly data on CPI in Croatia from January 1997 up to November 2015, ARIMA (0,1,1) x (0,1,1)12 model is fitted asthe one describing CPI behavior pattern and therefore reliable for CPI forecasting. Furthermore, to establish its volatility pattern several ARCH family models are tested and ARCH (1) model is found to be the best fitted one in explaining CPI volatility development in Croatia.

Suggested Citation

  • Igor Živko & Mile BoÅ¡njak, 2017. "Time Series Modeling of Inflation and its Volatility in Croatia," Notitia - journal for economic, business and social issues, Notitia Ltd., vol. 1(3), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:noa:journl:y:2017:i:3:p:1-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CPI; ARIMA; ARCH; Croatia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F39 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Other

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