Inflation targeting in India: issues and prospects
This paper evaluates the case for inflation targeting (IT) in India. It states the objectives of monetary policy in India and argues that, with widespread poverty still present, inflation control cannot be an exclusive concern of monetary policy. The rationale for IT is spelt out and found to be incomplete. The paper provides some evidence on the effects of IT in developed and transition economies and argues that although IT may have been responsible for maintaining a low inflation regime, it has not brought down the inflation rate itself substantially and or changed the volatility of the exchange rate. Output movements in transition countries adopting IT have been higher than in developed market economies. I discuss India's experience with using nominal targets for monetary policy and why India is not ready for IT. Further, even if India's central bank wanted to, it could not pursue IT because the short-term interest rate does not have a significant effect on inflation. The paper concludes by listing monetary policy options for India.
Volume (Year): 22 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/CIRA20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/CIRA20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
- Luis Ignacio JÃ¡come & Francisco F. VÃ¡zquez, 2005.
"Any Link Between Legal Central Bank Independence and Inflation? Evidence From Latin America and the Caribbean,"
IMF Working Papers
05/75, International Monetary Fund.
- Luis Jácome & Francisco Vázquez, 2005. "Any Link Between Legal Central Bank Independence and Inflation? Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean," Macroeconomics 0508011, EconWPA.
- Balakrishnan, Pulapre, 1991. "Industrial price behaviour in India : An 'error-correction' model," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 309-326, November.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997.
"Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?,"
NBER Working Papers
5893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998.
"Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule,"
646, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," NBER Working Papers 6790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," Papers 646, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," CEPR Discussion Papers 1998, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Svensson, Lars E. O., 1998. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," CFS Working Paper Series 1998/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Laurence Ball & Niamh Sheridan, 2004.
"Does inflation targeting matter?,"
DNB Staff Reports (discontinued)
118, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981.
"A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model,"
NBER Working Papers
0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
- Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1995. "Restraining Yourself: The Implications of Fiscal Rules for Economic Stabilization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 32-48, March.
- Philippe Cuneo & Jacques Mairesse, 1983.
"Productivity and R&D at the Firm Level in French Manufacturing,"
NBER Working Papers
1068, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Philippe Cuneo & Jacques Mairesse, 1984. "Productivity and R&D at the Firm Level in French Manufacturing," NBER Chapters, in: R&D, Patents, and Productivity, pages 375-392 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- William Seyfried & Dale Bremmer, 2003. "Inflation Targeting as a Framework for Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Analysis," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 36(3), pages 291-299.
- Miguel A. Savastano & Paul R. Masson & Sunil Sharma, 1997. "The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/130, International Monetary Fund.
- Charles Bean, 2003.
"Asset Prices, Financial Imbalances and Monetary Policy: Are Inflation Targets Enough?,"
RBA Annual Conference Volume,
in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy
Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Charles Bean, 2003. "Asset prices, financial imbalances and monetary policy: are inflation targets enough?," BIS Working Papers 140, Bank for International Settlements.
- Tim Callen & Dongkoo Chang, 1999. "Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in India," IMF Working Papers 99/119, International Monetary Fund.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
- Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2001.
"Growth is good for the poor,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
2587, The World Bank.
- Rachel Lomax, 2005. "Inflation Targeting in Practice: Models, Forecasts, and Hunches," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(3), pages 251-265, September.
- Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & Andre Minella, 2003.
"Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies,"
NBER Working Papers
10019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608, June.
- M. S. Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2004. "Monetary policy rules in emerging market economies: issues and evidence," BIS Working Papers 149, Bank for International Settlements.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
- Raghbendra Jha & Anurag Sharma, 2004. "Structural Breaks, Unit Roots, and Cointegration: A Further Test of the Sustainability of the Indian Fiscal Deficit," Public Finance Review, , vol. 32(2), pages 196-219, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:22:y:2008:i:2:p:259-270. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.