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Volatility and financial intermediation

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  • Aizenman, Joshua
  • Powell, Andrew

Abstract

Following the Tequila period, its after-effects in Latin America and recent events in South East Asia, the effect of volatility on emerging market economies has become an important topic of research with the domestic financial intermediation process being advanced as one of the most important transmission mechanisms. At the same time there has been continued interest in issues related to imperfect information and rationing in credit markets. In this paper, we consider an economy where risk neutral banks provide intermediation services and risk neutral producers demand credit to finance their working capital needs. Our model blends costly state verification with imperfect enforcement power and, in this context of costly financial intermediation, we show that a weak legal system combined with high information verification costs leads to large, first-order effects of volatility on production, employment and welfare. A calibration illustrates that the semi-elasticity of welfare with respect to volatility is less than -1 for reasonable parameter values (i.e., a one percent increase in the coefficient of variation of productivity shocks would reduce welfare by more than one percent). We suggest that legal and information problems in the credit market may then be at the heart of the reason why volatility has profound effects on emerging market economies.
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  • Aizenman, Joshua & Powell, Andrew, 2003. "Volatility and financial intermediation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 657-679, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:22:y:2003:i:5:p:657-679
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    Cited by:

    1. Felicia Ramona Birău, 2012. "The Implications Of Liquidity Crises In The Context Of Emerging Capital Market," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(18), pages 189-193, April.
    2. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk, 2006. "The Effects of Volatility on Growth and Financial Development through Capital Market Imperfections," MPRA Paper 5486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Keith Blackburn & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2005. "Growth, Uncertainty and Finance," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0525, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    4. Joshua Aizenman & Brian Pinto, 2004. "Managing Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner's Guide Overview," NBER Working Papers 10602, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Dimitrios Varvarigos & Keith Blackburn, 2005. "Growth, Uncertainty and Finance," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 12, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    6. Keskinsoy, Bilal, 2017. "Taxi, Takeoff and Landing: Behavioural Patterns of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 78129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Enisse Kharroubi, 2004. "Macroeconomic Volatility and endogenous debt maturity choice," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 22, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    8. Beck, Thorsten & Degryse, Hans & Kneer, Christiane, 2014. "Is more finance better? Disentangling intermediation and size effects of financial systems," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 50-64.
    9. Ferreira da Silva, Gisele, 2002. "The impact of financial system development on business cycles volatility: cross-country evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 233-253, June.
    10. K Blackburn & D Varvarigos, 2005. "Growth, Uncertainty and Finance," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 48, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    11. Pedro Mazeda Gil, 2003. "A Model of Firm Behaviour with Equity Constraints and Bankruptcy Costs," FEP Working Papers 134, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    12. Beck, Thorsten & Lundberg, Mattias & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2006. "Financial intermediary development and growth volatility: Do intermediaries dampen or magnify shocks?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1146-1167, November.
    13. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Caterina Mendicino, 2006. "Credit Market and Macroeconomic Volatility," 2006 Meeting Papers 317, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Fehn, Rainer, 1999. "Globalisierung und unvollkommene Kapitalmärkte: Verschärft die Knappheit international anerkannter Sicherheiten Länderkrisen?," Discussion Paper Series 29, Julius Maximilian University of Würzburg, Chair of Economic Order and Social Policy.
    16. Kharroubi, E., 2006. "Illiquidity, Financial Development and the Growth-Volatility Relationship Illiquidity, Financial Development and the Growth-Volatility Relationship," Working papers 139, Banque de France.
    17. Pedro Elosegui & Paula Español & Demian Panigo & Emilio Blanco, 2007. "The Asymmetrical Impact of Restrictions to Financing in Argentina. Comparison by Sector, Size and Origin of Ownership (1995-2003)," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(48), pages 73-107, July - Se.
    18. Mallick, Debdulal, 2014. "Financial Development, Shocks, And Growth Volatility," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 651-688, April.
    19. Cavalcanti, Marco Antonio F.H., 2010. "Credit market imperfections and the power of the financial accelerator: A theoretical and empirical investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 118-144, March.
    20. Carrière-Swallow, Yan & Céspedes, Luis Felipe, 2013. "The impact of uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 316-325.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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