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Credit market and macroeconomic volatility

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  • Mendicino, Caterina

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of credit market size as a determinant of business cycle fluctuations. First, using OECD data I document that credit market depth mitigates the impact of variations in productivity to output volatility. Then, I use a business cycle model with borrowing limits a la Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) to replicate this empirical regularity. The relative price of capital and the reallocation of capital are the key variables in explaining the relation between credit market size and output volatility. The model matches resonably well the reduction in productivity-driven output volatility implied by the established size of the credit market observed in OECD data. JEL Classification: E21, E22, E44, G20

Suggested Citation

  • Mendicino, Caterina, 2007. "Credit market and macroeconomic volatility," Working Paper Series 743, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2007743
    Note: 1774743
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    Cited by:

    1. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk, 2013. "The role of credit in the Great Moderation: A multivariate GARCH approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4626.
    2. Gábor Vadas, 2007. "Wealth portfolio of Hungarian households – Urban legends and facts," MNB Occasional Papers 2007/68, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    3. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2017. "Expectations-driven cycles in the housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 297-312.
    4. Balázs Zsámboki, 2007. "Basel II and financial stability: An investigation of sensitivity and cyclicality of capital requirements based on QIS 5," MNB Occasional Papers 2007/67, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    5. Bezemer, Dirk J, 2009. "Banks As Social Accountants: Credit and Crisis Through an Accounting Lens," MPRA Paper 15766, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf & Daniel E. Sichel, 2006. "Financial innovation and the Great Moderation: what do household data say?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    7. Conroy, Niall, 2015. "Irish Quarterly Macroeconomic Data: A Volatility Analysis," Research Notes RN2015/2/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset prices.; credit frictions; reallocation of capital;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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