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Monetary aggregates and output

  • Scott Freeman
  • Finn E. Kydland

This paper offers a general equilibrium model that explains how the observed correlations of money and output fluctuations may come about through endogenously determined fluctuations in the money multiplier. The model is calibrated to meet long run features of the U.S. economy (including monetary features) and then subjected to shocks to the Solow residual following a random process like that observed in U.S. data. The model's predicted business-cycle frequency correlations, of both real and nominal variables, share the following features with U.S. data: i) M1 is positively correlated with real output; ii) the money multiplier and deposit-to-currency ratio are positively correlated with real output; iii) the price level is negatively correlated with output [in spite of (i) and (ii)]; iv) the correlation of M1 with contemporaneous prices is substantially weaker than the correlation of M1 with real output; v) correlations among real variables are essentially unchanged under different monetary policy regimes; and vi) real money balances are smoother than money demand equations would predict. Although features (i) and (iv) may have been considered support for a causal influence of money on output, the paper demonstrates that they are consistent with an economy in which money has no such causal influence.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1998-013.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1998-013
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  1. Cooley, Thomas F. & Ohanian, Lee E., 1991. "The cyclical behavior of prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 25-60, August.
  2. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "A sticky-price manifesto," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
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  4. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  5. William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 1997. "Endogenous money supply and the business cycle," Working Papers 1995-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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  8. Leamer, Edward E., 1985. "Vector autoregressions for causal inference?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 255-304, January.
  9. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 1994. "On the welfare cost of inflation," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 94-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  10. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-48, September.
  11. Chari, V V & Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1995. "Inside Money, Outside Money, and Short-Term Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1354-86, November.
  12. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1997. "Some Thoughts on Practical Stabilization Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 236-39, May.
  13. Scott Freeman, 1986. "Inside Money, Monetary Contractions, and Welfare," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 19(1), pages 87-98, February.
  14. Blanchard, Olivier, 1997. "Is There a Core of Usable Macroeconomics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 244-46, May.
  15. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
  16. Schreft, S L, 1992. "Transaction Costs and the Use of Cash and Credit," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 283-96, April.
  17. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
  18. Freeman, Scott & Huffman, Gregory W, 1991. "Inside Money, Output, and Causality," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(3), pages 645-67, August.
  19. Lacker, Jeffrey M., 1988. "Inside money and real output," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 9-14.
  20. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "The real bills doctrine vs. the quantity theory: a reconsideration," Staff Report 64, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  21. Coleman, Wilbur John, II, 1996. "Money and Output: A Test of Reverse Causation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 90-111, March.
  22. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
  23. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  24. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
  25. Solow, Robert M, 1997. "Is There a Core of Usable Macroeconomics We Should All Believe In?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 230-32, May.
  26. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-80, June.
  27. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
  28. Richard D. Porter & Ruth A. Judson, 1996. "The location of U.S. currency: how much is abroad?," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 883-903.
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